374
FXUS61 KCAR 091841
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
141 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather disturbance will cross the area tonight. Low pressure
will approach on Wednesday...cross the area Wednesday
night...then continue into Eastern Canada on Thursday. High
pressure will build south of the region Friday into Saturday. A
new low may approach on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak ripple in the upper flow will cross the area tonight. Enough
moisture is expected to pull north from this system to bring an inch
or two of light snow to Coastal Downeast areas tonight. However,
moisture will likely not make it north to produce anything more than
a chance for patchy light snow. The disturbance will quickly
continue on into the Maritimes early Wednesday morning.

Our focus on Wednesday turns to a more substantial low approaching
from the Great supported by a trough sliding through the Midwest.
Snow ahead of this system, with rain along the coast, will push into
Downeast areas around midday and reach the north around mid
afternoon. The rain/snow line will migrate north changing
precipitation over to all rain for the rest of Downeast and the
lower Penobscot Valley by the end of the day with snow
continuing across the north. There will be a slight chance for
some light patchy freezing rain in the transition zone. There
is some uncertainty how for north the change-over to rain will
progress, but it could reach just north of Houlton Wednesday
evening. This is a fast moving system and snow, with rain
Downeast, will begin to taper off by mid evening Wednesday. A
light to moderate snowfall of 4 to 6 inches seems likely across
Eastern Aroostook and northern Penobscot Counties with around
three inches to the west, and little or none Downeast. The
greatest uncertainty in amounts may be over Southeastern
Aroostook County where a mix or change to rain may limit amounts
to around 2 to 4 inches.

Low pressure will lift away to the northeast late Wednesday night as
the upper trough approaches from the west. Some divergence aloft and
lingering moisture may result in continued snow showers over the
north toward Thursday morning. Otherwise, Wednesday night will remain
mostly cloudy and milder than recent nights with lows from near 20
north to 30 Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Key Messages
-Cloudy with Snow Showers Thursday
-Cold and Breezy Friday

Discussion...
A deep 500mb trof will be pivoting overhead during the day
Thursday with scattered snow showers and cloudy skies. Westerly
winds increase throughout the day with temperatures barely
budging and will fall in the afternoon as cold air advection
increases. Highs top out in the mid 30s for the Downeast coast,
low 30s for the Bangor region and 20s for the rest of Northern &
North-Central Maine. Westerly winds begin to get gusty 15-25mph
by sunset in the late afternoon.

Thursday night opted to increase winds with the NBM90th
percentile and increased gusts 3-8mph given increased confidence
in a deepening low over the Maritime. This will result in an
increased pressure gradient than previously seen operational
model runs. Winds gusting 20-30mph with isolated higher gusts up
to 40mph across the higher terrain near Greenville. Any fluffy
20-25:1 ratio snow that falls will blow around in the open
fields of Northern Maine and opted to add patchy blowing snow.

Friday snow showers will come to an end and temperatures start
out in the 9-12F range north and 12-16F range south. Wind chills
will bottom out in the -9F to 0F range for most locations.
Friday westerly winds gusting 20-30mph with temperatures topping
out around 20F across the north and mid to upper 20s for central
and Downeast regions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*Key Messages:
-Unsettled weather pattern, chance for snow this weekend

Discussion...
Low continues to move northeast away from Maine on Friday night.
Wind gusts relax through the evening and overnight hours into
Saturday AM. Weak ridging builds in Saturday morning, as
another low to the west begins to move towards Maine. Generally
highs in the 20s and teens, and lows in the teens to single
digits. Significant differences with a potent northern stream
trof working into the area Sunday into Monday. Increasing jet
streak and upper level divergence will give way to surface
cyclogenesis. There is a ton of differences in the operational,
ensemble members and AI modeling. There is a potential for a
coastal storm system but nothing to latch onto right now with
numerous operational solutions varying with storm types.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions will lower to MVFR around midnight over the south
tonight and after midnight across the north late tonight.
Conditions may lower to IFR over the south late tonight. MVFR
conditions north and IFR to MVFR conditions south Wednesday
morning will lower to LIFR conditions across the area Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. Conditions may improve to MVFR
late Wednesday night.

Winds south around 5 kt tonight, southeast 5 to 10 kt Wednesday,
then light and variable across the north and southwest around 5 to
10 kt Downeast Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM: Thursday...IFR improving to MVFR by mid morning in
snow showers in the north, and rain showers Downeast. VFR south
and MVFR north in the afternoon. W wind 5 to 15 kt. Gusts up to
25 kt.

Thursday night...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 10 to 15 kt
with gusts up to 30kt.

Friday...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 10 to 15 kt gusting to 30
kt.

Friday night...MVFR north becoming VFR. VFR south. W wind 10-15
kt.

Saturday...MVFR, possibly lowering to IFR at times south. SW
wind 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR, potentially lowering to IFR by late day. W-NW
5-15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
A SCA will be up tonight into Wednesday followed by a gale late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Seas building up to 5 ft
tonight, 7 ft Wednesday and 8 ft Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM: SCA winds Thursday increasing back to westerly Gales
from Thursday late day into Friday night. Gusts up to 40kt
possible. Waves 7-10ft through much of this period. Winds/seas
fall below SCA late Friday night into Sunday AM before
potentially another set of SCA to Gales by early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM EST
     Thursday for MEZ001>004.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for MEZ005-006-010.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for ANZ052.

&&

$$

Near Term...MB
Short Term...JS
Long Term...JS
Aviation...MB/JS
Marine...MB/JS