669
FXUS61 KCAR 281113
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
713 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross the area Sunday. High pressure
will build south of the area Monday. Another weak cold front
will cross the region on Tuesday followed by Canadian high
pressure on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Update...

See updated aviation section below.

previous discussion
Moisture associated with low pressure well to our south is
resulting in some mid level clouds streaming into Maine. Clouds
should begin to clear out of the area this morning as the low
moves offshore. Meanwhile, a cold front to our west is expected
to move into northern Maine late in the morning. Some scattered
showers are expected to develop along the front with the
greatest chance for rain expected to be in northeastern
Aroostook where the forcing for ascent will be greater. The
front should move southeast throughout the day bringing some
showers to far eastern Maine. Still some uncertainty on how far
west rain develops which will depend on the strength of the
front. Some very limited instability of 100 to 250 J/kg is
expected to develop ahead of the front which will likely result
in showers being convective in nature. However, a short CAPE
profile and the limited instability will likely preclude a
lightning threat and thus while an isolate rumble of thunder
cannot be ruled out, opted not to include it in the forecast.
Otherwise, today looks to be a mostly sunny day with above
normal temperatures reaching as high as 80 in the Bangor region.

The cold front clears out tonight with light NW flow in its
wake. Clear skies overnight may aid in the development of some
patchy fog, however, winds are likely to be just strong enough
for fog coverage to be less than a typical clear and calm night.
High pressure moves in for the day on Monday with sunny skies.
Some clouds begin to work into northern Maine during the late
afternoon and early evening as another cold front approaches.
Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures slightly cooler
than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
West to Northwest flow both at the surface and aloft can be expected
Monday night. A large area of high pressure will build across
central Canada and remain centered near James Bay through Tuesday
night. Monday night will be mainly clear to partly cloudy across the
region. Lows will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s north and
upper 40s to around 50 for central and downeast. Tuesday will be
partly to mostly sunny with a gusty north to northwest wind.
Afternoon highs on Tuesday will be several degrees cooler than
those of Monday. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 50s
to around 60 across the far north and the mid to upper 60s for
the Bangor region and Downeast. The cold air advection
strengthens Tuesday night in the north to northwest flow both at
the surface and aloft. Lows will fall into the low to mid 30s
across the north and upper 30s to around 40 for the Bangor
region and downeast. With the center of the high still well to
our northwest, the prospect for strong radiational cooling looks
limited, as there may be enough of a gradient to keep the
atmosphere mixed through the night. In addition, there likely be
at least some patchy stratocumlus around in the cold advection
pattern. This will likley inhibit widespread frost development
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The first day of October, Wednesday, will start out unseasonably
cool with afternoon high temperatures expected to be a good 6 to 8
degrees below normal for the time of year.  A 500 MB trough axis is
expected to cross the region during the day. This should result in
more in the way of diurnal clouds Wednesday afternoon. Afternoon
highs on Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 50s north
and upper 50s to near 60 for Bangor and downeast areas.

The surface high continues to slowly build to our west across Quebec
province, with mainly clear skies expected along with cold overnight
lows in the upper 20s to near 30 north and mid to upper 30s for
Bangor and Downeast. Patchy frost is a possibility in the
normally colder low lying areas.

High pressure builds to our southwest Thursday and Thursday night.
Expect mainly sunny skies on Thursday with afternoon highs in the
mid to upper 50s north and around 60 for Bangor and Downeast. Expect
partly cloudy skies Thursday night, and it will not be quite as
cold as the previous night.

Dry weather is expected for the end of the week and beginning of
next weekend along with moderating temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected through Monday. VCSH possible
at the Aroostook county terminals through midday today. S to SW
wind 5 to 10 kt this morning, becoming W with G25kt this
afternoon. LLWS possible tonight at the Aroostook terminals. W
wind 10 to 20 kt Monday.

SHORT TERM: Mon night through Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions
are expected through the period. N to NW wind expected through
the period will be gusty at times Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
overnight through Monday. Sea surface water temperatures are
53-56F from the Downeast coast out 25NM and east to the Hague
Line including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot Bays.

SHORT TERM: Wind/seas will remain below SCA levels Monday night.
Long period swell from Humberto, which will be passing well out
to sea, will begin to affect the waters later Tuesday through
mid week. Seas may build from 6 to 8 ft across the outerwaters
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some fire weather concerns early next week on Monday and
Tuesday. Winds will be breezy at about 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 20 mph in combination with RH values at a minimum of
around 35 to 40%. RH increases on Wednesday then decreases again
late week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...TWD/Melanson
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...TWD/Melanson/TWD
Marine...TWD/Melanson/TWD
Fire Weather...