381
FXUS62 KCHS 031121
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
621 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area today and prevail
through midweek. A dry cold front will pass through Thursday,
followed by more high pressure. Another cold front could impact
the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, the upper low and sharp mid-level trough will
continue to track eastward overnight and should start the day
aligned across central NC down through the eastern half of SC.
The trough will continue its quick eastward progression into the
afternoon, pushing to the NC Outer Banks. At the surface, the
approaching upper low will trigger cyclogenesis off the NC/SC
coast and the low is expected to quickly track to the Outer
Banks through daybreak. Dry high pressure will then steadily
build in from the west through the rest of the day. Light
rainfall has been ongoing for the last few hours primarily along
and east of I-95, but will soon come to an end as notably drier
air seen on water vapor imagery continues to spread in.
Regional radar imagery does show an area of precipitation
directly associated with the upper low across north GA, but
there is good agreement among the suite of model guidance that
this rainfall will gradually diminish in coverage as it pushes
to the east through sunrise. This timing and progression will
leave the forecast dry for Monday. We do anticipate an area of
low clouds to accompany the upper low through sunrise, with
rather quick clearing through the remainder of Monday morning.
In fact, the afternoon should bring clear skies and plentiful
sunshine to the region. Highs are expected to top out int he
upper 60s in most areas, with a tier of low 70s possible for
southeast GA.

Tonight: High pressure will continue to spread into the area,
leaving us with clear skies and quiet conditions. Winds will
back from northwesterly to north-northeasterly through the night
with enough gradient to maintain at least light flow. Lows are
forecast to range from the low to mid 40s away from the coast,
and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad mid level ridging over the Southeast Tuesday will flatten
mid week in response to a shortwave passing well to the north.
At the surface, high pressure will expand across the area for
Tuesday and Wednesday, then a weak front is expected to pass
through Thursday. The front will have little impact on the
weather, with not much change to temperatures and no associated
rainfall. A dry forecast prevails. Expect plenty of sun with
high temperatures warming back up. By Thursday, highs will
average in the low to upper 70s, perhaps a couple spots in
southeast Georgia at 80. The chilliest night will be Tuesday
night under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Current
forecast shows lows ranging from the upper 30s inland to upper
40s near the immediate coast, except low 50s at the beaches.
These temps are too warm to support frost, but will need to keep
an eye on far interior if the forecast trends cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will prevail on Friday. A mid level wave will
pass by to the north Friday night into Saturday and will bring a
weak front towards the area, but it might wash out/stall before
progressing through. A more amplified trough will bring a
stronger front later in the weekend. Models aren`t that excited
about rainfall potential, so a dry forecast holds through the
period but it will be something to watch. Temperatures will be
on the warmer side of early November normals.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with IFR conditions impacting KCHS
and KJZI, while KSAV remains VFR. Satellite imagery tells the
story showing the extent of low stratus just to the east of KSAV
and it looks as though that will continue. While ceiling
heights have been the primary factor, visibilities have lowered
into the 1-3 SM range at times. IFR conditions will likely
persist at KCHS and KJZI through mid morning, with a quick
improvement to VFR expected there after. Northwest winds could
be a bit breezy Monday afternoon, with gusts into the 15-20 knot
range possible.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Northwest winds are expected today with
speeds topping out in the 15-20 knot range. Overnight, winds will
turn more northerly while speeds continue to hold in the 15-20 knot
range. Seas are expected to average 2-4 feet through the period, and
perhaps up to 5 feet in the outer waters at times.

Tuesday through Saturday: Gusty north-northeast winds are expected
on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Conditions
should remain just below Small Craft Advisory criteria, with speeds
topping out in the 15-20 kt range and seas 3-5 feet. Expect
improving conditions Tuesday night into midweek as the pressure
gradient eases. No additional concerns through late week. High
pressure will largely prevail, aside from a dry front passing
through Thursday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide cycles are expected this week due to the upcoming
full moon and perigee. Coastal flooding will be possible with
the morning high tides along the entire southeast South Carolina
and Georgia coast, especially as we head towards the middle of
the week when base astronomical levels are already at or near
minor flooding thresholds.

Charleston and coastal Colleton (Charleston Harbor gage): The
first tide of concern will be Tuesday morning with the tide
forecast showing levels reaching minor flood criteria (7.0 ft
MLLW). Both Wednesday and Thursday morning tides have the
potential to approach/reach moderate flooding criteria of 7.5 ft
MLLW. Wednesday will have a more favorable wind direction,
while Thursday has a less favorable offshore wind direction but
a higher astronomical level. Either way, Coastal Flood
Advisories appear likely for this time period.

Beaufort County and south along the Georgia coast (Fort Pulaski
gage): There is potential for tides to reach right around minor
flooding criteria of 9.5 ft MLLW with the morning high tides,
especially Wednesday and Thursday. Coastal Flood Advisories will
be possible.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...BSH/ETM
MARINE...BSH/ETM