Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
507 FXUS62 KCHS 192351 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 651 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure is expected to prevail across the area through the rest of the week. A cold front is expected to move through this weekend, followed by more high pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Tonight: Broad ridging will continue to build across the area aloft while a surface front likely becomes hung up just to our north across the Midlands, Pee Dee, and Grand Strand. Being on the south side of the front, temperatures and dew points will remain elevated and we expect to see a mild night. Lows are forecast to fall into the mid 50s inland with around 60 expected along the immediate coast. Given the weak to calm surface flow, warm temperatures, and available low-level moisture, there could be some fog potential mainly for inland areas late tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday through Saturday: Aloft, broad ridging will build across the region Thursday and Thursday night before flattening out to become more zonal Friday and Friday night. Then for Saturday, a shortwave will quickly track to the east-southeast across the Appalachians and into the Carolinas. At the surface, a front will continue to hang up just to the north on Thursday, then wash out Friday as high pressure remains the primary feature. Then for Saturday, the aforementioned shortwave aloft will drive a surface low to develop in the lee of the Appalachians and push a cold front into the area. For Thursday and Friday, the main story will be the warmth as highs each day are expected to be around 10 degrees above normal each day and could approach daily records (see Climate section below). Saturday will also bring similar temperatures, as well as the possibility of a few showers ahead of the front. Model guidance has generally trended drier with this system over time, which makes sense given its approach from the west-northwest and the influence of downsloping. The forecast features some 20 percent rain chances across the far interior, but we certainly do not expect any notable rainfall if any at all. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A shortwave will move quickly offshore Saturday night, followed by a trailing shortwave passing through with little fanfare Sunday and Sunday night. Thereafter, ridging will again spread eastward into early next week. At the surface, high pressure will setup offshore while a cold front organizes across the lower MS Valley. The forecast area will then become situated between these features toward the end of the forecast period. This front, associated with a a more significant trough aloft, will eventually impact the area though its timing of arrival remains uncertain. For now, it appears this will be more of an issue for the mid to late week time period. Regardless, the stretch of above normal temperatures looks to continue for the latter half of the weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Friday. However, some guidance continues to suggest the potential for fog late tonight, primarily inland of the SAV terminal. High clouds should limit the potential for dense fog, but some shallow ground fog could impact the terminals within a few hours around daybreak Thursday, greatest chance occurring at SAV. TEMPO MVFR vsbys have been introduced from 09-12Z at SAV with MIFG as a result. Extended Aviation Forecast: Primarily VFR. && .MARINE... Tonight: A front will hang up just north of the local waters. Southwest flow of no more than 10-15 knots is expected through the evening, becoming westerly 5-10 knots overnight. Seas are expected to average around 2 feet through the period. Thursday through Monday: High pressure will remain the primary feature across the area through the end of the week. A cold front is then expected to move through the area Saturday night through Sunday, followed by the return of high pressure early next week. The period of strongest winds will come with southwesterly winds ahead of the front Saturday, becoming westerly Saturday night, and then northerly on Sunday. Winds are expected to peak in the 10-15 knot range with gusts as high as 20 knots. Seas should peak in the 2-3 ft range during the time of the strongest winds. Overall, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through the period. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: November 19: KCHS: 83/1942 KCXM: 82/1958 KSAV: 85/1942 November 20: KCHS: 82/1942 KCXM: 78/1900 KSAV: 83/1942 November 21: KCHS: 83/1973 KCXM: 80/1942 KSAV: 82/2011 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BSH SHORT TERM...BSH LONG TERM...BSH AVIATION...BSH/DPB MARINE...BSH