759
FXUS62 KCHS 071111
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
611 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will maintain unsettled weather into Monday,
then cold high pressure will build in. A reinforcing cold front
will move through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At sunrise: The dense fog threat never really came to fruition
overnight. There is probably some patch dense fog in a few
places well inland, but certainly nothing widespread. Rain
continues to be confined to the GA coast, primarily McIntosh
County.

Today: Aloft, the pattern will continue to feature southwest
flow as a shortwave digs across the Plains and approaches the MS
Valley. At the surface, high pressure will remain the primary
feature with a front still draped off the Southeast coast,
across north FL, and across the northern Gulf. There is good
model agreement that the moisture feed and precipitation shield
to the south will gradually spread back to the north along the
GA coast through the morning. One of the main forecast questions
is how far north will the light rainfall spread. Hi-res model
consensus and the HREF favors the light precipitation getting as
far north as Hinesville, Savannah, and almost up to Beaufort
and the Charleston County coast. Additional rainfall amounts
will be light with a few hundredths to a tenth along a line from
Reidsville to Savannah and Beaufort south, then up to a quarter
of an inch across McIntosh County and portions of the GA coast.
It will be yet another very chilly and cloudy day with highs
only reaching the low 50s for most of the area.

Tonight: The shortwave will push east of the lower MS Valley
and toward the southern Appalachians. This will drive surface
low development across the northeast Gulf as well as off the
Southeast coast. Most of the rainfall will remain to the south
and southeast along the boundary and associated with the
developing surface low. However, we will see an area of light
precipitation develop more closely associated with the trough
aloft and track across MS, AL, and GA. While these showers will
mostly remain west of the forecast area through the overnight, a
few showers could get into the far western zones by around
sunrise. We will still be in an environment with plenty of low-
level moisture so low stratus will persist and we could again
see fog development. Lows are forecast to fall into the low to
mid 40s in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers will move through Monday morning as the
primary shortwave passes by to the northwest. Meanwhile, cool
high pressure will build from the west. Tuesday looks fairly
cool with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s, but temps quickly
rebound on Wednesday with highs pushing into the lower 60s in
most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Temperatures will moderate late in the week, then a reinforcing
cold front sweeps through Friday. A few showers may accompany
the front, followed by much colder air.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with MVFR conditions at KCHS and KJZI,
while KSAV has actually been VFR for a while. Elsewhere, MVFR
ceilings are widespread and should fill in at the TAF sites as
well. Rain is expected to push back to the north and into KSAV
by the early afternoon, while it will likely be just on the
doorstep of KJZI and KCHS. KSAV should go back to IFR with the
arriving rainfall, while KCHS and KJZI likely remain MVFR
through the day. Rain should come to an end at all 3 sites by
the late evening. Model guidance then suggests that IFR ceilings
will return to all 3 sites after midnight and persist through
the end of the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: IFR/MVFR ceilings expected to
persist through Monday night, then improving to VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Winds will start off northeast 5-10
knots this morning then gradually become northerly 10-15 knots
through the evening. Then overnight, winds will turn more
northwesterly 10-15 knots with gusts potentially approaching 20
knots at times. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period.

A brief period of Small Craft Advisory winds/seas is possible
Monday night over the Charleston nearshore waters and GA
offshore waters. The next chance for advisories will be Friday
night behind a reinforcing cold front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Upcoming morning high tide (~9:30 am): At Charleston, the
astronomical high tide is 6.47 ft MLLW, meaning that there would
need to be a tide departure of at least 0.53 ft to reach the
minor coastal flood threshold. The current departure is 0.5 ft
and the peak tide is expected to be right around that 7 ft MLLW
mark. We will hold off on a Coastal Flood Advisory for now and
see how observations go over the next hour or two.

After the morning high tide there are no more concerns for tidal
flooding through the week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL