006
FXUS62 KCHS 172314
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
714 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the region through Saturday. A
cold front will move through Sunday night, followed by high
pressure early next week. Another cold front will then arrive
during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Another very quiet night across southeast GA
and southeast SC. Dry high pressure will prevail, centered
nearly right on top of the Southeast coast. Skies will be mostly
clear, with just a few thin cirrus passing through. Lows aren`t
expected to be quite as chilly as last night, but certainly
still be low normal. Lows are expected to be mostly in the low
to mid 50s, with some upper 40s across the inland tier including
the Francis Marion National Forest area and other typical cool
spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Aloft, a large ridge will extend across the Southeast United
States this weekend, in advance of a high amplitude trough
advancing east across the Central United States and to the
Midwest/Great Lakes region. This will help maintain dry and
sunny conditions on Saturday with high temps peaking in the
lower 80s well inland to mid-upper 70s closer to the coast.
Despite another night of clear skies, a light southerly wind
should pick up late, suggesting lows to only dip into the mid-
upper 50s inland to low-mid 60s near the coast Saturday night.

On Sunday, the mid-upper lvl trough will help force a sfc cold
front across the local area during afternoon and evening hours,
resulting in few to scattered showers as a breezy southerly flow
advects a swath of moisture (PWATS near 1.50 to 1.75 inches)
across the local area during peak heating hours. Instability
remains rather meager near/during fropa and the front looks
rather progressive, suggesting rainfall accumulations to remain
quite limited locally. However, a few thunderstorms remain
possible across nearby waters once the front shifts offshore
(higher instability area). High temps should peak in the upper
70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will become noticeably cooler
post fropa, generally dipping into the upper 40s/lower 50s
inland to upper 50s near the coast.

Dry and cooler high pressure will prevail across the Southeast
on Monday, becoming centered directly across the local area
while a cold front continues to shift further away from the
region over the Atlantic. Despite sunny conditions, weak cold
air advection associated with a northerly wind should limit
afternoon highs to the low-mid 70s (warmest across Southeast
Georgia).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A strong radiational cooling setup occurs Monday night with
weak high pressure supporting a light/calm wind during the bulk
of the night. Lows should dip into the mid-upper 40s inland to
mid-upper 50s closer to the coast. By Tuesday, a southwest flow
in advance of dry cold front will help push afternoon highs
into the upper 70s/lower 80s, before fropa occurs late day while
a strong mid-upper trough advances from the Great Lakes region
to the Northeast. This will once again favor below normal highs
Wednesday and Thursday, with peak temps anticipated in the low
70s across Southeast South Carolina and mid 70s across Southeast
Georgia each afternoon. Overnight lows should also dip into the
mid 40s away from the coastal corridor Wednesday night, before
temps recover a bit heading into the second half of the week as
high pressure prevails under a zonal flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z
Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at
CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Tuesday. However, gusty southerly
winds (15-20 kt) are possible at all terminals Sunday in advance
of a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic states
will prevail through the period, with ENE winds generally around
10 knots. Seas are forecast to average 2 to 4 ft in the
nearshore waters and 3 to 5 ft in the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA
waters.

Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will dominate the
pattern this weekend, keeping wind/sea conditions well below
Small Craft Advisory levels across local waters for Saturday. On
Sunday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten in advance
of a cold front, followed by cold air advection occurring with
building high pressure in its wake, favoring gusty southwesterly
winds Sunday night turning more northerly by daybreak Monday.
Wind gusts could approach the 20- 25 kt while seas build upwards
to 4-6 ft (largest across outer Georgia waters and beyond 15 nm
from the Charleston County Coast). Low-end Small Craft
Advisories could eventually be needed Sunday night. High
pressure will then prevail across the region later Monday into
Tuesday, supporting wind/sea conditions that remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels. A dry cold front is anticipated to shift
across the local area Tuesday night, but the pressure gradient
and cold air advection appear less supportive for Small Craft
Advisory conditions with gusts primarily in the 15-20 kt range
and seas between 2-4 ft. High pressure will then prevail across
the region Wednesday leading to quieter marine conditions.

Rip Currents: Another period of enhanced rip current risk is
possible for all beaches Sunday due to increasing swell and
gusty onshore flow ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...CPM/DPB