Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
299 FXUS62 KCHS 220545 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1245 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will dive across the area tonight, followed by the return of high pressure early next week. Rain chances then return late Wednesday into Thursday as another cold front takes aim at the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: A mid-level wave is currently approaching the Midlands of South Carolina with weak returns on radar from a mid-level cloud deck. There is a substantial amount of dry air in the 500/850 mb layer which has limited the coverage of the light rain, but still there are several sites that have traced. Most of the light rain or sprinkles will likely be across the Midlands, but can`t rule it out over coastal South Carolina or Georgia. During the day today, a prefrontal trough will approach the region from the west with 10% coverage (or less) of weak showers. The main sensible weather difference today (compared to Friday) will be the southwest winds. Out in front of the cold front, the LLJ starts to increase in speed with 925/ 850 mb winds approaching 30 mph. Given rather abundant mixing forecast, wind gusts up to 20 mph are likely this afternoon (strongest winds being across the TriCounty). Expect high temperatures again near 80 degrees. Tonight: A cold front will cross the area late with less than a 15% chance of precipitation. Taking a look at forecast soundings, significant dry air in the profile appears the most likely limiting factor. Expect low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging aloft will build into the southeastern states from the Gulf, slowly shifting eastward into the middle of the week. At the surface high pressure initially over the Mid-West will dominate over the region, with the center of high pressure shifting eastward and eventually off the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday. A quiet weather pattern is expected, due to the prevailing high pressure. A mostly dry forecast has been maintained, with the only chance of rainfall around 10-15% on Tuesday as a weak upper level disturbance passes over the southeastern states. Temperatures through the period will be several degrees above normal, with highs in the 70s, pushing 80 along the Altamaha River in GA. Overnight lows will similarly be above November normals, only dipping into the upper 40s to 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad troughing will develop over the eastern CONUS late in the week. Cluster analyses are consistent in the presence of the upper level trough, with agreement in models depicting a cold front pushing through the region late week. The current forecast features precipitation chances Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of the front, generally around 20-30%. Temperatures prior to the front will remain above normal, dropping to around normal post FROPA. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 21.06z TAF Issuance- Today: All TAF sites are currently VFR, however a mid-level wave is moving northeast over eastern Georgia. Underneath the disturbance, light rain is being reported at several locations with a thick 12kft deck overhead. This wave is forecast to move east and then northeast over coastal South Carolina early Saturday morning. TAF sites will remain VFR as low level dry air persists. However, some reports of light rain do appear possible (especially at KJZI and KCHS). As the sun rises, the mid-level wave will have exited the region to the northeast with a brief period of MVFR possible, but a quick transition to a VFR cu deck is likely. A cold front will then approach the terminals late Saturday, but a prefrontal trough will initiate highly localized (<10% chance of observing) showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given the low probability of occurrence, no mention of thunder or precipitation was included in the TAFs at this time. The other item to mention are the winds and wind gusts. Out ahead of the cold front, southwest flow sustained around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt is forecast. Tonight: A cold front will then cross the terminals late with winds turning from the northwest. No precipitation is expected with the frontal passage. Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: Southwest winds will be around 10 kt with gusts 15 to 20 kt ahead of an approach cold front through this afternoon. Late this evening/ early tonight a cold front will cross the waters with winds veering from the northwest. Sunday through Tuesday: Conditions through the period are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will dominate through into early next week. NW winds Sunday will shift to NE Sunday night, generally around 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to average 2 to 3 ft. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: November 22: KCXM: 79/1997 KSAV: 82/1997 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM...CPM LONG TERM...CPM AVIATION...CPM/Haines MARINE...CPM/Haines