419
FXUS61 KCLE 082103
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
403 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts across the area on Tuesday, ahead of strong low
pressure that tracks through the southern Great Lakes on Wednesday.
A cold front crosses Wednesday afternoon behind this low pressure.
After brief high pressure Thursday into Thursday night, a series of
clippers and cold fronts is expected Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-Unseasonably cold lows in the single digits and 10s expected tonight.
-A quick-moving band of snow spreads across the area on Tuesday,
 potentially bringing a quick coating to 1" of snow. Impacts would be
 brief and minor, favoring northern portions of the area.

A quiet and cold early December night is in store as high pressure
that`s in control today begins exiting east tonight. Partly cloudy
skies this afternoon will briefly go mostly clear tonight, before
clouds start increasing from the west late tonight. Lows will reach
the single digits and 10s (colder in inland and less urban area,
milder near the lake and in the densely urban Cleveland area).

A low-amplitude shortwave will zip across the Great Lakes on Tuesday
as a warm front lifts across the area, likely bringing a quick period
of snow from west to east during the morning and early-mid afternoon
hours. This snow will primarily be forced by strong warm air advection
and isentropic lift in the low-mid levels just ahead of the surface
warm front, on the nose of a 50kt low-level jet. Weaker forcing and
increasingly dry low-levels decreases snow potential farther south
across our area, though snow is likely across at least our northern
couple of rows of counties. POPs have been increased some across the
board with at least a 20-30% chance everywhere, increasing to 60-70%
across the north, and may need to go a bit higher with the next update
if trends continue. This will be a quick hit of snow, spreading into
Northwest OH 6-8 AM, reaching Cleveland/Akron 9-11 AM and PA by
midday. Accumulating snow will not last more than 1-3 hours in a
given area before tapering off. However, model forecast soundings
show moderate to strong lift briefly co-located with the dendritic
growth zone (DGZ) with this snow as it moves across the area, so even
though the forecast reads an inch or less of snow across the board it
may briefly come down. Where road temperatures remain cold (higher
confidence west of I-77 where snow arrives earlier in the day, more
debatable east of the I-77 corridor) the quick hit of snow may be
briefly impactful on the roads. Models do disagree a fair bit still
regarding how far south into our area this quick band of snow will
impact, with spread ranging from a quick inch or so of snow almost
down to US 30 (higher confidence in brief impacts in that scenario) to
amounts of 0.5" or less confined to the far north (which would not be
impactful). Something in between is most likely to verify, though
given the co-location of the lift with the DGZ on model soundings, we
may end up on the slightly snowier side of these solutions.

There should be a general lull in measurable precipitation late
Tuesday afternoon and evening, though a few flurries or perhaps
drizzle may linger across northern Ohio and northwestern PA. Highs on
Tuesday will range from near 30 in the higher terrain of PA to the
milder upper 30s across the western half of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-Accumulating wet snow favoring the higher terrain of Northeast OH and
 Northwest PA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of a clipper.
 The timing of snow may impact the Wednesday morning commute. The rest
 of the area will likely see chilly rain or a rain/snow mix.
-Windy conditions area wide late Tuesday night through Wednesday as
 the clipper progresses through, with gusts over 40 MPH possible.
-A strong cold front crosses late Wednesday, bringing falling
 temperatures and scattered snow showers area-wide. Light to moderate
 lake effect snow lingers in the snowbelt Wednesday night & Thursday.

A potent clipper, associated with surface low pressure near 985mb,
will zip through the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Another warm front
lifts through area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of
the approaching low. The low tracks through Michigan Wednesday
morning, pulling an initial cold front across the area during the late
morning/early afternoon hours. A secondary cold front, with a tap of
deeper cold/Arctic air behind it, crosses Wednesday evening. Low
pressure quickly exits through northern New England near the St
Lawrence River Wednesday night, with lingering chilly cyclonic flow
behind it into Thursday. High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley
later Thursday into Thursday night.

A brief period of strong lift moves into the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning along and just ahead of the warm front,
bringing an initial round of precipitation. Lows Tuesday night will
generally be near or a bit above freezing. This precipitation
continues to be forecast to fall as a rain/snow mix with the greatest
potential for snow farther east across our area and in the higher
terrain, though there have been noticeable trends in guidance today
that suggest the potential for more snow vs rain is increasing. This
lift will be focused ahead of the incoming strong/sharp vort max, with
a window of strong isentropic lift on the nose of a moisture-rich
50-60kt low-level jet. Forecast soundings suggest this lift may
largely be focused in and above the DGZ, with hints at some modest
slantwise instability in the mid-levels as well. These are all
arguments for a period of both good precipitation rates and dynamic
cooling within the initial round of precipitation late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, suggesting that potential is there for a period
of accumulating snow even if the low-levels are on the milder side.
The forecast continues to call for POPs ramping up Tuesday night into
early Wednesday with a rain/snow mix for most of the area, but has
trended towards a bit more snow wording across the eastern portions of
the area and a bit more rain/snow wording farther west where the
prior forecast called for mainly or all rain. The deterministic snow
forecast calls for 1-3" in the higher terrain of Northwest PA and
0.5-2" across the higher terrain of Northeast OH, with little to none
near the lake and farther west. It`s worth noting that NBM 90th
percentile (aka "reasonable worst case scenario") snow amounts range
from 2-4" across Northwest PA to 1-3" across Northeast OH, with
lighter amounts as far west as the higher terrain near Mansfield.
Given the impressive dynamics involved we will need to monitor for
amounts to trend towards this higher end, particularly if we see the
system trend any more dynamic or slightly farther south. A Winter Wx
Advisory may be needed for far Northeast OH and Northwest PA for
Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with impacts to the commute a
consideration if snow amounts do trend towards the 90th percentile.

We quickly get into a dry slot Wednesday morning, which should lead to
precipitation weakening and likely allowing lingering precipitation
to more readily change to all rain, even in Northeast OH and Northwest
PA. The initial cold front late Wednesday morning and early afternoon
will likely bring a broken, low-topped band of weakly convective
rain/snow showers. A secondary front and associated strong low-mid
level trough axis crosses late Wednesday afternoon or evening,
bringing scattered to numerous snow showers area-wide with a lake-
enhanced burst of snow downwind of the lake into Northeast OH and
Northwest PA. This should not lead to much snow outside of the lake
enhancement, generally under an inch, though may contribute to slick
conditions where snow continues as temperatures drop Wednesday night.

Highs on Wednesday will likely occur late morning or early afternoon,
in the upper 30s or lower 40s. Temperatures will slowly fall
Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a harsher temperature drop
Wednesday night. Wind gusts of 35-45 MPH are expected early Wednesday
morning through late Wednesday afternoon, initially out of the south
but shifting more west-southwest through the day. Some potential for
parts of the area to need a Wind Advisory is there, though ultimately
the strongest winds aloft occurring during morning on Wednesday in a
warm air advection regime with lots of cloud cover may work against
effectively mixing down advisory-level gusts. However, that potential
will be monitored and either way it will be windy.

Lake effect will setup Wednesday night into Thursday amid west-
northwest flow behind the departing clipper. There are some pros and
cons to this lake effect setup...pros including some lingering low-
level synoptic moisture, upstream connections to Lakes Michigan and
Huron, and strong low-level lapse rates as 850mb temperatures bottom
out in the -12C to -14C range early Thursday over lake water temps of
3-5C east of the Lake Erie Islands. Cons include mid-level moisture
quickly stripping away and equilibrium levels quickly falling to 5-7k
feet, meaning it will be a struggle to see deep lake effect bands that
tap into the most ideal dendritic growth zone. Ultimately, locations
that see persistent lake effect may see another few inches of snow
Wednesday night through Thursday, favoring the higher terrain of
Northwest PA but with some accumulations in the Ohio snowbelt too.
Lake effect will continue into Thursday night but should gradually
weaken and/or shift northeast, as warm advection aloft kicks in and as
winds gradually back to a more west-southwest direction. The lake
effect snow may marginally reach advisory levels, mainly in inland PA.

Outside of the lake effect conditions should dry quickly Wednesday
night, though flurries off of Lake Michigan will likely drift into
western portions of the area into at least Thursday with little to no
accumulation potential. These flurries from Lake Michigan should taper
into Thursday night as high pressure builds in. Lows Wednesday night
will generally reach the low-mid 20s. Highs on Thursday don`t go up
much, mid 20s to near 30. Lows in the 10s to low 20s (warmest in the
snowbelt due to cloud cover) Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-High confidence in very cold weather this weekend, with highs
 struggling to exceed 20 and lows in the single digits and 10s. Wind
 chills may dip below 0 degrees at times.
-Confidence in details remains low, but potential is there for one or
 two clippers to bring widespread light to moderate snow accumulations
 Friday through Saturday night.
-At least some lake effect snow is expected this weekend in the
 snowbelt, with potential (lower confidence) for impactful amounts.

A longwave trough with a good connection of Arctic air will amplify
over the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend, reaching peak
amplitude Saturday and Sunday before beginning to exit as milder and
more zonal flow attempts to establish itself from the west.

There is high confidence in a period of cold weather this weekend,
with highs struggling to exceed 20 degrees by Sunday and overnight
lows in the single digits to lower 10s. Friday should see similar
high temperatures to Thursday before the deeper cold arrives. A
moderation trend should begin by Monday, though confidence in exactly
how quickly we warm up isn`t high yet. A period of windier weather is
also likely, probably centered around Saturday and Saturday night.

What there`s less confidence in is any snow potential during the long
term period. An initial shortwave/clipper zips through the region on
Friday, with another shortwave/clipper expected later Saturday and
Saturday night. Both clippers could bring swaths of fluffy, light to
perhaps moderate accumulations. Drier weather (outside of lake
effect) is generally favored for Sunday and Monday. The track of each
clipper and impacts to the local area will need to be pinned down, as
ensemble members depict various potential tracks and swaths of snow
with each clipper, not all of which would do much locally. Deeper
cold air gets pulled in Saturday night into Sunday behind the second
clipper. Guidance has been bouncing around regarding how deep the
cold air is and if we have more of a west vs northwest wind.
Confidence in accumulating lake effect snow across parts of the
snowbelt Saturday night through at least Sunday is fairly high,
though potential peak amounts and placement will take the next several
days to fully resolve. Impactful lake effect is possible, and those
in Northeast OH and Northwest PA will want to monitor the potential.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Generally expect VFR conditions through the TAF period, however
low pressure will move east across the northern fringe of the
local area on Tuesday, resulting in lower ceilings and possibly
some light snow showers at KTOL and KCLE late in the TAF
period. Ceilings will likely fall to low-end VFR from KCLE to
KMFD and locations west with patches of MVFR
ceilings/visibilities possible in light snow.

Winds will be out of the east/northeast at 6 to 12 knots before
becoming light and variable tonight. South/southwest winds will
develop late tonight and increase to 10 to 16 knots with gusts
to 25 knots by late morning/early Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected with snow on Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night which will gradually transition to rain by
Wednesday morning. Rain will transition back over to periods of
snow Wednesday evening through Saturday. Gusty winds are likely
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled marine conditions are anticipated for much of this week as
a series of systems cross the region. Southeast winds to 10 to
15 knots will develop tonight with south/southwest flow developing
and increasing behind a warm front by Tuesday morning. Small Craft
Advisories start in all nearshore zones at 12Z Tuesday morning and
winds in the open waters mainly in the central and eastern basins
will likely reach 25 to 30 knots for a period Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. The strongest winds will develop as a strong cold
front approaches and moves east across the lake late Tuesday night
through Wednesday and winds will likely reach 25 to 35 knots in the
central and eastern basins of the lake between about 09Z/4 AM
Wednesday and 00Z/7 PM Wednesday evening. A Gale Watch is in effect
during this time. Winds will likely be a bit too southerly to
warrant any low water issues in the western basin on Tuesday, but a
Low Water Advisory will likely be needed at some point with the
strongest west/southwest winds on Wednesday.

Small Craft Advisories will likely continue after the expiration of
any gale headlines Wednesday night onwards, although there
may be a brief lull in higher winds/waves late Thursday night/early
Friday morning before southwest winds increase to 25 to 30 knots
ahead of the next approaching system Friday night through Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15