269
FXUS61 KCLE 071812
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
112 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon
followed by a secondary cold front tonight. Low pressure will
move east across the region Saturday night into Sunday with a
trough persisting over the Great Lakes through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will track east across the local area this afternoon
into this evening with stratiform rain moving east ahead of this
feature. The most widespread rain will exit to the east early this
evening, although scattered lake-enhanced showers may persist
tonight into Saturday as the upper trough axis and a reinforcing
surface cold front move east into the area tonight into early
Saturday. The secondary cold front will likely slow near or just
south of the U.S. Route 30 corridor Saturday morning. Breezy
southwest winds will continue through the remaining daylight hours
today with gusts to 25 to 30 mph anticipated. Winds should diminish
with the loss of diurnal mixing this evening.

Low pressure will deepen as it begins to move east out of the Mid-
Mississippi Valley Saturday evening with the low likely entering the
western half of the CWA by the end of the near term period. Rain
chances will increase ahead of this system with widespread
categorical (75 percent or greater chance) PoPs spreading east
across nearly the entire CWA by Sunday morning. Depending on
temperatures towards the end of the period, there may be a few wet
snowflakes across NW OH.

Cooler air will arrive behind today`s cold front with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s anticipated tonight. Saturday`s highs will
generally be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, however locations south
of the frontal boundary will be in the mid 50s Saturday afternoon.
Saturday night`s lows will generally be in the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The first wintry weather of the season is expected to arrive during
the short term period. The aforementioned low pressure system will
exit to the east Sunday afternoon with cyclonic flow persisting
aloft through early next week. Much colder air will arrive on the
back side of the low and 850mb temps will likely fall to -5 to -7C
by Sunday night. This will provide plenty of lake-induced
instability, as Lake Erie surface temps are still 10 to 13C and
periods of lake effect precipitation are expected through Monday
night. A rain/snow mix will likely develop with cold air advection
Sunday evening before transitioning to all snow as sub-freezing
temps arrive Sunday night into early Monday. There will likely be
two main areas of snow: locations downwind from Lake Erie across
portions of NE OH/NW PA Sunday night through Monday night and
locations downwind from Lake Michigan across portions of NW OH
primarily Sunday night.

There`s high confidence in the likelihood of accumulating snowfall
across most (if not all) of the area late Sunday into Monday,
especially across the snowbelt region of NE OH/NW PA. However,
confidence in the placement of higher snow accumulations (possibly
in the range of 6-8+ inches) across the snowbelt region is still
quite low due to uncertainty in mean flow over the lake and the
resulting placement/coverage of lake effect snow bands. The majority
of the precip should fall Sunday night/early Monday morning, during
which time the highest snow amounts could be focused over the
western portion of the snowbelt if more northerly flow materializes.
Temperatures will be marginal for snowfall and the somewhat higher
early November sun angle will likely result in lower snow
ratios/accumulations during the day Monday. However accumulation
will likely become more efficient as temperatures cool below
freezing Monday night. In general, accumulation should largely occur
on grassy and elevated surface since surface temps have been above
freezing lately, although there may be impacts on untreated paved
surfaces when temps are below freezing Monday morning and
Monday night. Snow consistency may be wet and heavy at times,
especially near the lakeshore, so will need to keep an eye on
potential snow load issues on trees that still have leaves.
Wintry headlines are certainly possible during the short term
period, so stay tuned for updates!

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Temperatures will begin to warm a bit Tuesday as high pressure
attempts to build over the Ohio Valley. Lake effect snow (possibly
rain/snow) showers will likely persist through Tuesday, however the
potential arrival of mid-level dry air could result in more
scattered/light precip rates. In the event of continued snow showers
Tuesday, accumulations will be hard to come by since temps will be
above freezing. Broad upper troughing will continue through the
remainder of the long term period with lake effect precip chances
continuing through at least Thursday. Upper ridging may return to
the area by Friday, although there`s still uncertainty in how
quickly the upper trough exits to the east. Precip type would
largely be rain on Wednesday with periods of a rain/snow mix
possible Wednesday night onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Rain showers extend across North Central Ohio into Northwest
Pennsylvania at 18Z and will continue to move east out of the
area through approximately 21Z ahead of a cold front. Southwest
winds will remain breezy through the afternoon with gusts to
around 25 knots at times, shifting to the west behind the front
between 21-01Z and decreasing to 10 knots or less. A secondary
wind shift to the north or northwest will occur with a secondary
frontal push between 03-12Z with light winds expected.

Ceilings are generally MVFR across the area with visibilities
in showers ranging from VFR to brief IFR in the heavier pockets.
We have had a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon which
have been hard to time but can not rule out a thunderstorm yet
this afternoon at CAK/YNG. Did not include in the terminals
given low potential but will update to amend if trends on radar
increase. Some pockets of IFR ceilings have been noted upstream
and did include a couple hour tempo for IFR ceilings at CAK/YNG
between 21-24Z. Conditions should start to improve behind the
front with clouds clearing out from west to east between 21-05Z
before filling back in with clouds near 4-5K with the secondary
cold frontal push after 08Z. Some locations in Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania will see clouds lower to MVFR again
on Saturday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR in rain showers Saturday evening through the
weekend with low pressure moving through. Additional low
pressure system will move through Sunday night into Monday with
non-VFR expected. Prolonged non-VFR conditions possible through
Tuesday evening with lake effect rain/snow showers across
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled marine conditions are expected over the next several days
with a series of low pressure systems moving through the region.
Currently, a Small Craft Advisory is active for all near shore zones
as winds will increase out of the south to 15-25 knots and waves
will build to 3-6 feet. Over the open waters, there is potential for
winds to increase to around 30 knots, primarily across the central
and eastern basins. Winds will become more westerly by Friday
evening and begin to subside behind frontal passage. The Small Craft
Advisory will continue until waves begin to subside early Saturday
morning. Winds will become light on Saturday until another low
pressure system enters the region on Sunday. Winds will increase
again with the system out of the north-northwest and another round
of Small Craft Advisories may be needed into early next week. Will
also need to keep an eye on the potential for gales late this weekend
and early next week especially on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for LEZ145-146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...10
MARINE...23