050
FXUS61 KCLE 011814
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
114 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build east across the region today. Low pressure
originating near the Gulf Coast will extend a surface trough into
the Ohio Valley Monday night into early Tuesday, before tracking
northeast off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. High pressure will build east
across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of a cold front
that will push south across the area early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows one remaining band of clouds extending from
Lake Huron with clearing skies across much of Lake Erie. Snow
showers are showing a downward trend in intensity across Erie
County, PA and the Winter Weather Advisory looks on track to expire
on schedule at 7 AM. The weather today will be quiet with high cloud
overspreading the area while stratocu remains across NE Ohio and NW
Pennsylvania.

Attention then turns to the trough swinging east across the Plains
today before lifting across Northeast Ohio tonight. At the surface
low pressure will originate along the Gulf coast and track northeast
towards the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday. Before that occurs,
most models show an inverted trough extending north into eastern
Ohio and some high resolution models even depict a weak
secondary low tracking across West Virginia on Tuesday morning.
A considerable layer of dry air between 850-700mb spreads north
across the area this afternoon and will need to be overcome
before any precipitation reaches the ground tonight. Favorable
isentropic ascent spreads west to east across the area from
02-06Z with light snow developing. Snow is forecast to increase
in intensity towards 06Z as the shortwave trough approaches from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley and frontogenesis ramps up in the
850-700mb layer. Snowfall rates of a half to three quarters of
an inch spread northeast across the area generally between
midnight and 9 AM producing a few quick inches of snow. There
looks to be a banded component to this system which means a
swath of 3-6 inches is possible while areas outside this heavier
band could be a little lower than forecast in the 1-3" range.
Best guess at this point is for the heavier band to be in the
vicinity of Mount Vernon to Akron to Meadville, but this could
vary northwest or southeast by a couple tiers of counties and
have gone with a more broad brushed snowfall forecast. The
timing of the snow is more problematic from north central Ohio
to Northwest Pennsylvania as it will be falling late tonight and
into the morning commute on Tuesday. Intensity of snow will
drop off quickly from west to east on Tuesday morning as a dry
slot wraps into the system in the 700-500mb layer. Sometimes
these dry-slots are faster than expected as a 150 knot upper
level jet streak slides east of the area by 12Z and that will be
something to monitor. Liquid qpf is forecast to range from
around 2 tenths towards Toledo to 4 tenths across the snowbelt
region which is why portions of NW Ohio are not included in the
Advisory. Snow ratios of 10-14:1 will result in a widespread
2-5" of snow. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF are a little lower on
qpf while several of the high resolution models are hinting at
the banded precipitation developing and will favor some of those
solutions.

Deeper moisture pulls away on Tuesday morning which leaves some
question regarding lake effect snow potential in the northwesterly
flow continuing through the afternoon. Lift looks to be
shallow(below 5K feet) but models sounding off Lake Erie suggest
equilibrium levels of 7-8K over the lake which would have sufficient
depth for ice nuclei. Will keep 50-70 percent pops going across the
snowbelt Tuesday afternoon with additional minor accumulations of 1-
2" possible where bands set up. This was the reason for keeping the
Winter Weather Advisory in effect through 7 PM across the snowbelt
although the heaviest snow is expected during the early morning
hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Flow backs on Tuesday night and any lingering snow showers should
diminish as moisture depth continues to dwindle. High pressure will
build east across the Ohio Valley Wednesday with partly cloudy
skies, southwesterly flow, and warm advection. Another upper level
trough will traverse the Great Lakes Region Wednesday night, pushing
a cold front south across the area. As moisture overspread Lake Erie
ahead of this system, lake effect snow showers will develop, then
push inland Wednesday night into Thursday AM. Snowfall amounts look
to be a half inch or less along the cold front except as high as 1-2
inches in the snowbelt south of Lake Erie. High temperatures on
Thursday will occur during the morning and fall during the
afternoon. With a brisk northwest wind, wind chills on Thursday will
be in the teens. Winds drop off Thursday night as high pressure
quickly builds in but allows for the coldest night of the year with
lows of 5-10 degrees except in the teens near Lake Erie.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cool pattern with below normal temperatures looks to continue
through the weekend. A broad longwave trough is in place from the
northern Plains to New England with poor model agreement with
regards to shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft. It looks
as if the storm track starts off south of the region and pops have
trended lower to start the long term. We will need to monitor trends
over the coming days for the potential for additional snow showers
in this cooler pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
The main aviation impact is a period of steady to heavy snow
that`s expected to impact all TAF sites tonight into early
Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail until snow spreads in after
0z, though ceilings may occasionally dip below 5,000 feet at
some sites before the snow. Snow is expected to spread into TOL
and FDY 0-2z, CLE 2-3z and reach eastern sites such as CAK, YNG
and ERI 3-6z. There is some uncertainty on the start time of
snow from CLE-MFD points east, as the low-levels will initially
be dry though hi-res guidance are showing hints at some banded
snow with IFR vsby impacting a narrower swath of the area as
early as 2-4z, though confidence in impacting any given terminal
is not tremendously high. Confidence is higher in conditions
degrading to IFR or lower pretty quickly from west-east 4-7z as
peak snow rates of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour impact all terminals,
particularly from FDY-CLE-ERI points southeast. Snow will
quickly exit 11-15z from west to east, leaving some lingering
lake effect snow showers with spottier vsby restrictions across
Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches are likely at most terminals tonight into early Tuesday,
most likely close to the low end of that at TOL. IFR ceilings
will develop during the snow and persist into Tuesday morning at
most sites before gradually improving through the day.

Winds will be under 10kt through the TAF period, gradually
swinging around from east-southeast this afternoon to north-
northeast overnight tonight to more north-northwest Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR may linger in lake effect snow showers through
Tuesday evening, with ceilings remaining non-VFR until early
Wednesday. Non-VFR likely again Wednesday evening and overnight
in snow along a cold front. Non-VFR possible in scattered snow
showers on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions are expected for the first half of this week
as weak high pressure and/or weak troughing persists over the
Lower Great Lakes region with winds less than 15 knots expected.
Small Craft Advisories will be needed across Lake Erie Wednesday
through Thursday as southwest winds of 25 to 30 knots arrive ahead
of a cold front on Wednesday, shifting towards the west to
northwest, 20 to 25 knots, behind the front on Thursday. Winds will
favor a southwest direction by the end of the week, 15 to 20
knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ009-017>019-027-028-036.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ010-029>033-037-038-047.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ011>014-020>023-089.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...Kahn