187
FXUS61 KCLE 050529
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
129 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger through today before slowly drifting off
the East Coast by Monday night. On Tuesday, a cold front will move
east across the area before another area of high pressure builds
across the region Wednesday into Thursday before another cold front
moves east late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The dry spell is expected to continue through Monday as high
pressure centered over the East Coast continues to influence the
weather across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. This
airmass remains dry and warm with above average temperatures once
again expected through this period. Today and Monday, high
temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 80s, possibly
a few degrees warmer across the western portion of the CWA.
Overnight lows will continue to drop into the 50s with the warmest
temperatures in the upper 50s west of I-71 and temperatures in the
low to mid 50s east of the corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The prolonged period of dry weather will finally be broken Monday
night into Tuesday as an upper level trough and associated cold
front move east across the area. Initial showers will push into the
area Monday night, but given the timing overnight the instability
should remain marginal with a very low risk of thunder. On Tuesday,
the cold front will move east before departing late Tuesday evening
into the early overnight hours. Showers should be primarily focused
along the boundary and given additional support and a bit more
instability, cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder but no severe
weather is anticipated at this point. Although these showers will be
widespread, general accumulation totals of rainfall will range from
0.5-0.75" with locally higher amounts possible in areas where storms
become well developed. Highs on Tuesday will be cooler with
temperatures only climbing into the low 70s. Overnight lows on
Monday night will be the warmest, only falling into the upper 50s to
low 60s.

By Tuesday night, a Canadian high pressure will build over much of
the area with any lingering showers departing east by Wednesday
morning. This airmass will once again allow for the return of dry
conditions and, more notably, the return of seasonable temperatures.
Highs Wednesday will only climb into the low to mid 60s. Overnight
lows on Tuesday night will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s before
really cooling down Wednesday night into the mid 30s to low 40s.
Confidence in frost occurring Wednesday night is increasing,
especially within valleys and across northwest Pennsylvania and
northeast Ohio. Will have to continue to monitor for any further
extent west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain dominant on Thursday and much of Friday
before long range models suggest a weak trough pivoting over the
area. As a result of this trough, a potential cold front will move
east late Friday into Saturday, potentially bringing another chance
of showers across the area. Overall strength of this late week
system appears minimal, so not expecting any widespread
precipitation at this point. It is worth noting that colder air is
modeled to push southeast across Lake Erie post-frontal, which may
allow for some lake enhanced rain showers to occur over the primary
snowbelt on Saturday. Highs through the period will remain around
average with highs climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s and
overnight lows in the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR. High pressure continues to control the region with a dry
atmosphere, meaning few to no clouds. Winds generally southerly
less than 10kts, although ERI could see wind direction changes
with a lake breeze today.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms with a
cold front on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions remain across Lake Erie through the weekend as high
pressure off the east coast influences the region. Winds will be
light, 5-10 knots, generally out of the south, then increase to 10-
15 knots by early Monday ahead of a cold front. Waves will be less
than 2 feet through the weekend. By Tuesday, winds will shift to be
more southwesterly and then shift to be northwesterly after frontal
passage Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The winds and waves will
also increase Tuesday evening behind the front to 15-25 knots out of
the north to northwest with waves building to 3-6 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...23