954
FXUS61 KCLE 110826
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level trough is currently situated over the east coast
and will persist through this evening. Weak ridging will build into
the region late Tuesday followed by a cold front Wednesday evening.
High pressure builds into the region Thursday with low pressure
moving through late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow continues across northeastern Ohio and northwestern
Pennsylvania this morning as a largely disorganized band persists.
There`s been stronger bands across Geauga County and Erie/Crawford
Counties in Pennsylvania dropping visibilities to around a mile to
two miles. Other areas outside of the stronger portions of the band
have been dropping to around 3 miles. Through this evening,
additional snowfall totals across northwest Pennsylvania will be
between 5-8 inches in the far eastern portions of the county and
decrease further west. In Ohio, the highest accumulations will be
across Geauga County with 2-4 inches expected. This will need to be
an area to watch as it progresses this morning. There`s potential
with the ridge building in to the southwest and the winds backing
that it could enhance this band. Additionally, there could be
elevated convergence in this area and the band can strength to bring
some moderate to heavy snowfall. This could potentially call for an
upgrade in headlines for, at a minimum, Geauga County and will need
to continue to monitor as this develops. At this time, there won`t
be any headline changes.

As the aforementioned ridge builds in from the southwest, it will
shift the lake effect bands off-shore by Wednesday morning. Another
low pressure system and shortwave feature will enter the region
which will bring the lake effect band back onshore by midday
Wednesday. Temperatures will warm as a warm front moves through
allowing for precipitation to fall as a rain/snow mix. Regarding
temperatures, they will begin to recover from the coldest days of
the year so far. Highs today will be mid 30s and rise into the mid
40s on Wednesday. Morning lows on Wednesday will be in the upper
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The low pressure system will move north of the region Wednesday
night dragging a cold front with it across the area. Lake effect
rain showers will continue through Thursday morning as there will
still be lingering moisture and convergence across far northeastern
Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. As a ridge builds into the
region and surface high moves to the south, the moisture fueling the
lake effect bands will end and drier weather is expected Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures will begin to warm as well with highs
climbing into the upper 40s and low 50s by Friday. Overnight lows
will warm as well as the high builds in from the west. Lows will be
climb above freezing for the western counties with the eastern half
staying below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue through Saturday as the high builds off
to the east. An upper level trough will start to deepen over central
Canada that will bring unsettled weather back to the region by
Sunday. A low pressure system will accompany the upper level feature
and sweep a cold front across the region on Sunday bringing
widespread rain. Temperatures in the long term will warm to be above
average before cooling back down to around average behind the cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR will prevail in north central and NW Ohio through today and
tonight keeping flight conditions good at KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD
outside of some brief passing flurries or light snow showers.
The main show will be the continuation of lake-effect snow
showers in NE Ohio and NW PA this morning. Current radar shows a
large area of loosely organized snow showers streaming
southeastward off the lake in the NW flow, so prevailed light
snow showers at KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI through mid morning.
The Ohio terminals should see improvement in the 13-15Z
timeframe as the bands consolidate and lift northeastward in
response to the flow becoming more W, but snow showers will
likely persist at KERI into early or mid afternoon. Frequent
MVFR and occasional IFR will occur in these snow showers, but
there will also be periods of VFR when terminals get in between
snow showers. This continues to make for low overall confidence
in terms of timing the lowest periods of cigs and vis, so
continued the use of PROB30 and TEMPO groups. All sites will
become VFR by late afternoon.

NW winds will continue to gust to 20-25 knots at times early
this morning but will generally be diminishing to 10-15 knots
while becoming W. These W winds will become SW and increase to
15-25 knots again late this morning through the afternoon and
into tonight. Gusts of 25-30 knots are possible near the lake
late this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions will continue in
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with lake effect
showers through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions remain on the hazardous side with continuing Small
Craft Advisories, a Gale Warning tonight, and a Low Water Advisory.
Northwest winds 20-30kts become southwesterly 25-35kts tonight, and
then back to west northwesterly behind a cold front Wednesday into
Wednesday night diminishing to 20-25kts. Wave heights east of the
islands during this period through Wednesday night will run anywhere
from 6-12ft in the open waters, and 4-8ft in the nearshore zones.
West of the islands, wave heights will be a bit more variable, but
still running 2-5ft. Winds will finally come down to around 10kts
for Friday and wave heights down to 1-2ft. Winds become offshore
around 10-20kts Saturday and increasing wave heights away from shore
to 1-3ft. Winds look to increase once again beyond Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ011>014-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     OHZ021>023.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>145.
     Low Water Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Wednesday for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ146>149.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday for
     LEZ146>149-166>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...23
NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM...23
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...26