495
FXUS61 KCLE 281736
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1236 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will linger over the region through today before high
pressure very briefly builds east over the area late tonight into
early Saturday. The next system will lift northeast across the
region late Saturday through Sunday with high pressure returning
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
445 AM Update...
Snowfall rates have largely diminished in Lorain and Lake
counties, although light snow will likely continue through this
morning as bands of snow focus inland. Opted to cancel the
Winter Weather Advisory for Lorain County since impacts will
remain minimal outside of lingering slick spots. Lake County
has missed the majority of the snowfall during this event,
however continued light to periodically moderate snow may
produce slick conditions so opted to downgrade the Lake Effect
Snow Warning to a Winter Weather Advisory. Will continue to
monitor radar trends over the next several hours, but additional
downgrades/cancellations are possible, especially close to the
lakeshore.

Previous Discussion...

Lake effect snow will continue through the near term period with
the highest accumulations occurring across the primary and
secondary snowbelt regions of NE OH and NW PA. Multiple bands of
snow are currently present across NE OH/NW PA early this morning
with the heaviest snowfall rates occurring in eastern Cuyahoga
County, Geauga County, northern Portage/Trumbull counties, and
Erie/Crawford counties (PA). Snowfall rates will be up to 1 inch
per hour at times, although there could be isolated higher
snowfall rates early this morning. Lake effect snow should
diminish in intensity and continue to push inland later this
morning as lift decreases in the DGZ and winds become a bit more
northwesterly. Lake effect snow showers should start to diminish
after midnight as high pressure starts to build east into the
region, although lingering light snow showers will remain
possible across the primary snowbelt through late tonight.

Additional snowfall totals of 5 to 7 inches are possible across
the higher terrain of eastern Cuyahoga, Geauga, and
Erie/Crawford counties with locally higher amounts possible
where bands of heavier snow persist. Slightly lower snow amounts
of 3 to 5 inches are likely in the snowbelt region, including
northern Summit/Portage counties and Trumbull County. Snow
amounts will be much lower closer to the lakeshore from Lake
County through Erie County, PA. The majority of the snow
accumulation will occur with the higher snowfall rates this
morning. Wind gusts have diminished considerably, however
west/northwest wind gusts to 25 to 35 mph will likely produce
blowing/drifting snow through this afternoon. Winter headlines
are unchanged with this update, but will probably be able to
start trimming down warnings/advisories as the morning
progresses.

Light snow showers downwind from Lake Michigan are possible
outside of the snowbelt today, but impactful accumulations are
not anticipated. Today`s highs will be in the lower 30s areawide
with overnight lows willing into the lower 20s and upper teens.
Apparent temps will be in the teens and lower 20s during the day
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering lake effect precip should largely diminish by
early Saturday morning and there will be a very brief period of
widespread dry weather Saturday morning/early Saturday afternoon
before the next system begins to impact the local area by late
Saturday afternoon. Low pressure will lift northeast from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday night and track across the
central Great Lakes early Sunday. Isentropic ascent ahead of the
low will allow stratiform snow to spread across the local area
late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening with warm air
advection causing snow to mix with and/or transition to rain
Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. The highest snowfall
totals will likely occur to the west of the local area, although
the western fringe of the CWA will be on the fringe of the
higher snowfall totals and higher impacts. Most of the area
will see 1 to 3 inches of wet synoptic snow accumulation
Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, but locations
northwest of a line from roughly Findlay to Port Clinton may
see snowfall totals as high as 4 to 6 inches, depending on where
the gradient of the heavier snowfall rates sets up. Confidence
in advisory amounts of snow is gradually increasing, although
confidence in warning amounts is still too low to consider the
issuance of a Winter Storm Watch.

The low`s cold front will move east across the area at some
point Sunday afternoon or evening with lake-enhanced snow
showers developing with the return of cold air advection Sunday
night. Lake-enhanced snow accumulations appear to be somewhat
marginal and snow should generally be short-lived as high
pressure builds in behind the low during the day Monday. With
that being said, the approach of the next disturbance will
likely push additional snow changes into the area late Monday
night.

Temperatures will briefly warm into the mid 30s to around 40
degrees Sunday with colder highs in the upper 20s and lower 30s
expected for Monday. Lows will be in the upper teens/lower 20s
Sunday night and the lower 20s Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Additional snow chances continue across the area on Tuesday as
an upper trough moves east across the local area. Dry weather is
favored for most of the area on Wednesday as high pressure
builds east over the region, however the next disturbance could
deliver lake-enhanced snow showers to the snowbelt region late
Wednesday into Thursday. Guidance suggests that temperatures
will largely remain below normal through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Lake effect snow showers will still be an issue for the first
half of the TAF period with CLE/YNG in fluctuating observations
in and out of the activity. ERI still has -SHSN possible as does
CAK, but for the most part, the main areas of concern will
remain at CLE and YNG. AMDs possible with ongoing trends as
cellular lake snow shower enhancement is currently ongoing as of
1730Z over Lake Erie, but also note that observations could jump
multiple flight categories.

Winds also continue out of the west gusting 20-30kts. These
gradually ease overnight. Ceilings and visibilities fluctuate
in and out of lake effect as well. Away from the lake effect,
MVFR ceilings, what is left of them, will become VFR, as will
the lake effect terminals eventually as the snow shuts down
tonight.

Outlook...A low pressure system will enter the Great Lakes
region this weekend, bringing light to moderate snowfall
areawide and non-VFR late Saturday afternoon through Sunday
morning, with lake effect snow lingering across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania through Monday. Another weather
system may bring another chance of snow and non-VFR on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in effect on the eastern half of Lake Erie
until 10 AM this morning. When that expires, Small Craft Advisories
will be needed through late tonight on the eastern half of the lake
which will match up with the remaining Small Craft Advisories on the
western basin in effect through this evening. The Low Water Advisory
on the western basin was able to expire at 4 AM. Water levels
are slightly above the critical mark early this morning but are
expected to gradually improve through the day.

Marine conditions are forecast to be good on Saturday before
increasing again Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure tracks
through the Central Great Lakes. This system will pull a cold front
east across Lake Erie on Sunday and a window of gale force winds is
possible, mainly on the central and eastern portions of the lake.
Will let the current warnings end before considering a gale watch
for Sunday but that may need to be considered.

High pressure returns Sunday night into Monday with improving
conditions. We will need to monitor the track of another low
pressure system tracking from the Gulf Coast up the east side of the
Appalachians on Tuesday which could yield in an increase in
northerly winds and possible Small Craft Advisories for the middle
of next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     OHZ011-013-014-022-023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ021.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ142>146.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26
MARINE...10