090
FXUS61 KCLE 161940
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
340 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday. A warm front
lifts through Friday night ahead of developing low pressure
across the central Plains. This low pressure tracks northeast
into the Great Lakes, pulling a cold front across the area. Low
pressure gradually exits northeast Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Our sunny and slightly cool afternoon will give way to a mainly
clear, calm, and chilly night. High pressure over Michigan this
afternoon will slide east-southeast tonight and is expected to
be centered across the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians by
early Friday. This is an ideal surface pressure pattern for
strong radiational cooling across interior central/eastern Ohio
and northwestern Pennsylvania, though with a modestly tighter
gradient and weak southerly flow/warm air advection across our
western counties. Frost Advisories have been posted from Marion
County to Lorain County points east, save Lake County and the
Ashtabula/Erie PA lakeshore zones (a weak onshore wind will
likely persist well into tonight over the lake, making it hard
to see frost near the lakeshore). Based on probabilistic
guidance and the favorable surface high position it`s certainly
possible a few colder valley locations in parts of interior
eastern OH dip below freezing...particularly across parts of
Ashtabula, Trumbull, and Wayne Counties. There is greater
confidence in more widespread sub-freezing temperatures across
at least eastern portions of Erie/Crawford Counties PA, so did
just go with a Freeze Warning in Northwest PA. The frost/freeze
headlines run from 2 AM to 9 AM Friday. Lows west of the Frost
Advisory and closer to the lakeshore will range from the upper
30s to mid 40s...still a chilly October night. Some thin high
cirrus will begin spreading in by pre-dawn Friday, but this
shouldn`t significantly limit frost/freeze potential.

High pressure starts pulling out to the east on Friday, allowing
modest southerly return flow to develop. There will be more
mid-high level cloud cover on Friday in response to modest mid-
level warm air advection/isentropic lift. There may be light
virga out of this lift Friday afternoon over Lake Erie and the
adjacent lakeshore in Northeast OH/Northwest PA, though outside
of a few sprinkles this should not reach the ground due to very
dry low-levels and overall weak lift. Highs will range from the
lower 60s in PA to the lower 70s along I-75.

A few showers become a better possibility Friday night into very
early Saturday morning, especially across Northeast OH into
Northwest PA, as continued warm air advection/isentropic lift
aloft and a gradual increase in low-level moisture take place.
Am not expecting more than a bit of QPF with this activity, but
have POPs as high as 60% in far Northeast OH and Northwest PA
Friday night, gradually diminishing to the south and southwest.
Lows will be milder, ranging from the 40s east to 50s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather is in store for the second half of the weekend,
though fairly inconsistent model guidance still leads to lower
confidence in the finer details. Overall, some amount of rain
and wind are likely with a bit of thunder possible, though the
potential for anything more hazardous from any of those three
things is uncertain but generally on the lower side overall.

Saturday will feature us breaking into the open warm sector as a
warm front exits to the northeast and as a cold front lingers
well off to the west. This will lead to a warmer, mainly dry day
with slightly increased southerly winds. Highs will range from
the lower 70s in PA to the lower 80s in Northwest OH.

The more active period of weather begins Saturday night. There
continues to be broad agreement that a fairly sharp/deep
longwave trough will dive into the Plains Friday into Saturday,
with the trough taking on a negative tilt Saturday night or
Sunday as it swings east-northeast into the Great Lakes and then
into the Northeast by Monday morning. Where there`s a fair bit
of disagreement is regarding how quickly shortwaves within this
broader trough phase. That will heavily dictate how quickly the
trough can deepen and take on a negative tilt, impacting the
track and intensity of low pressure that`s expected to lift into
the Great Lakes/Northeast Sunday into Monday. Yesterday`s
operational models and ensembles largely keyed on an earlier
phase, which led to a low pressure that deepened quickly
Saturday night into Sunday while lifting out of the mid-
Mississippi Valley and into the southern Great Lakes. Today`s
runs have notably trended towards a slower phase, leading to a
weaker initial low tracking into the Great Lakes Saturday night
into Sunday while a new low develops and deepens later, tracking
from the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast Sunday and Sunday
night. While both ideas still have some ensemble support, the
trend towards the slower phase and somewhat weaker solution in
most recent guidance has been quite noticeable and makes sense
given an overall progressive pattern...with the next potent
trough crashing into the Pacific Northwest coast Saturday night
into Sunday, the atmosphere will want to keep things moving
across the CONUS given a lack of any blocking.

This trend towards a slower phase and somewhat less dynamic
system doesn`t dramatically change most of the "deterministic"
forecast...rain is still likely/expected from west to east along
and ahead of a cold front Saturday night into Sunday, with some
wrap around rain lingering behind the departing low into Sunday
night, especially from Northeast OH into Northwest PA. It will
still remain mild/warm ahead of the cold frontal passage on
Sunday, with brisk southerly winds ahead of the cold front
Saturday night into Sunday switching more west-northwesterly
behind the cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. What
is still really up in the air is how strong wind gusts may get
behind the cold front on Sunday, along with if there will be
some low-toped convection along the cold front itself with a
severe threat. Recent trends suggest the potential for headline-
worthy winds may be decreasing, with recent trends also
suggesting that low-level wind fields may not be quite as
impressive when the cold front moves through, which could limit
potential for any severe weather. NBM probabilities for wind
gusts over 45 MPH across the area at some point Sunday or Sunday
night are generally 30-60%, with 5-10% odds for gusts over 60
MPH. In terms of rain, probabilities for over 0.25" are near or
above 90% area-wide, with odds of over 1.00" in the 40-60%
range. There are good odds for a wetting rain at the least, with
ongoing drought conditions making flooding a very distant
concern. The SPC Day 3 outlook has a Marginal Risk approaching
I-75 late Saturday night from the west, with no outlook
inclusion for Sunday yet. The overall takeaway is that
beneficial rains and breezy conditions are likely for the second
half of the weekend with lower odds for hazardous weather. The
most likely hazard at this point would be a marginal wind
advisory for parts of the area and marine hazards on the lake.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An active, somewhat cooler pattern is expected for next week.
Sunday`s system will be exiting on Monday, with perhaps a few
lingering showers in our northeast counties early in the day.
The next trough is expected to drop into the Great Lakes on
Tuesday before slowly drifting northeast across southeastern
Canada/New England Wednesday and Thursday. While agreement
begins decreasing, the next shortwave may begin approaching from
the west-northwest on Thursday. We should see a brief period of
mainly dry weather Monday into Monday night, with periodic
shower chances and breezy weather returning to the forecast
starting on Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday should feature highs in
the 60s, with temperatures potentially staying in the 50s by
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure continues to build in through tonight with clear
skies expected. Light north to northeast winds continue this
afternoon before become light and variable tonight. High
pressure shifts to the east tomorrow with light southerly winds
and scattered upper-level cirrus during the day Friday.

Outlook...Scattered showers may produce isolated MVFR
visibilities Friday night. Strong low pressure will track into
the Great Lakes on Sunday, bringing with it gusty winds, rain,
and scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Non-VFR is likely
areawide Saturday night through Sunday night. Non-VFR may
continue into Monday downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure lingers over Lake Erie tonight and Friday departs to
the east by Friday night. Southerly flow develops on the backside of
the departing high with southerly flow exceeding 20 knots by
Saturday evening as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
Most model guidance has this low deepening as it moves northeast
across Lower Michigan Saturday night into Sunday, with the wind
field around it strengthening with it as well. However, there is a
lot of uncertainty with how that manifests, including the
possibility for a second low to develop near or southeast of Lake
Erie, which could greatly alter the wind direction, wind speed, and
wave forecast greatly. Compared to previous forecasts, the potential
for high-end gale-force winds (40-45 knots) decreased greatly,
though there is still is a modest chance for periods of marginal
gale-force winds Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, especially with
a westerly direction.

Looking into next week, we`re likely to see a ridge of high pressure
on Monday, followed by another low pressure system impacting the
Great Lakes region on Tuesday. Strong winds exceeding 20 knots are
very likely for a period Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ010-011-013-
     014-019>023-028>033-036>038-047.
PA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders