511
FXUS61 KCLE 101743
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Northeast United States will continue east
today and move off the New England coast tonight. A low pressure
system will move southeast through the Great Lakes region on
Saturday and weaken into a trough on Saturday night. A coastal low
will move up the East Coast Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure east of the area will allow for a clear and calm
morning to continue. This has allowed for the atmosphere to decouple
and cool into the 30s with some potential for upper 20s in interior
Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania before dawn. The ongoing
Frost/Freeze headlines are generally on track and will remain valid
until 9 AM. As the surface high shifts east today, return flow into
the region will allow for southerly winds and warming conditions
into the 60s and lower 70s this afternoon.

The high pressure system will shift off the East Coast tonight and a
low pressure system will dive southeast toward the area tonight into
Saturday. This system will be supported by a closed upper low that
will arrive over Lake Erie by Saturday morning. This system will
bring some showers to the region with greatest coverage near and to
the lee of Lake Erie, as there will be ample instability over the
lake with the cold, closed upper low aloft, which should extend more
potent showers into NW PA. Temperatures will be a bit more muted on
Saturday with clouds and some rain in the region and a general 60s
flavor is expected, but NW PA and extreme NE OH could underperform
60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday night into Sunday, the low pressure system and upper
low will continue to weaken and open up into a trough, which should
allow for that energy to escape east and support a low pressure
system over the East Coast. However, this coastal system will allow
for a trough to remain in the area, which will likely continue to be
a focus point for showers, especially for the eastern half of the
forecast area. As the coastal low pulls out to sea on Monday, the
trough over the area will also get pulled east and allow for some
high pressure to build into the region. Therefore, the forecast
trend on Monday will be dry. Temperatures in the dry portions of the
forecast area will be above normal with clear and dry conditions in
a drought area, supporting 70s. For the areas with clouds and rain
chances, temperatures will be near normal in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid-week forecast appears seasonable at this time with a cold
front moving through the area on Tuesday and high pressure building
from the northwest for Wednesday and beyond. The question for
Tuesday is whether or not there will be enough moisture to support
some rain development with the cold frontal passage. At this time,
the atmosphere appears fairly dry to be concerned about a widespread
rain threat for the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, the question
will be how cold aloft will the new air mass be behind the cold
front and with the incoming high pressure system. If 850 mb
temperatures can be near or below zero, then there may be enough
lake instability to generate at least some lake effect clouds, if
not a couple of showers. However, limited moisture over the region
seems to suggest that any rain would be minor. Temperatures will be
in the 60s with 50s in NE OH/NW PA with the lake clouds and
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR is expected to continue through at least the early part of
tonight with upper-level cirrus. A weak cold front crosses the
area late tonight into Saturday morning which will be
accompanied by scattered rain showers and low stratus with
ceilings around 2500-5000 ft. MVFR ceilings and associated rain
showers will be most likely downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast
Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Saturday morning.

Southerly winds around 10 knots continue through this afternoon
before weakening to around 5-8 knots tonight. Winds gradually
become northerly on Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR with low ceilings are possible downwind of
Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Saturday
night through Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest flow may approach 20 knots in the nearshore
tonight, though a small craft advisory is not expected. A weak
cold front crosses Lake Erie late tonight into Saturday morning
with flow become northwest. There is a low chance for
waterspouts on Saturday and Saturday night. Light and variable
conditions on Saturday will give way to east to northeast flow
through Monday night with speeds averaging around 15 knots. Wind
speeds could briefly approach 20 knots Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. A weak cold front moves across the lake on
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Saunders