946
FXUS61 KCLE 292049
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
349 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move northeast through the Central Great Lakes
tonight into Sunday, dragging a surface trough across the area
Sunday night. Weak high pressure will build across the region on
Monday. Another low pressure system will move northeast from the
Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. A strong cold front
will move south through the Great Lakes late Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Virga is overspreading northern Ohio from the west on radar early
this afternoon, with snow expected to begin reaching the ground along
the I-75 corridor around 3 PM before spreading east into the rest of
this area this evening and tonight. Aside from a slight decrease in
forecast snowfall (talking all of few tenths of an inch lower in
general) outside of Northwest Ohio, there`s been no notable change to
the general forecast, impacts, or headlines with this forecast cycle.
Temperatures are generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s early this
afternoon with dew points in the 10s, suggesting temperatures will be
near freezing when snow arrives over the next several hours and
quickly dip a few degrees due to wet bulbing. A slow warming trend
then arrives later this evening into the overnight. Air and ground
temperatures will support snow accumulations on roadways pretty
quickly once steadier snow pushes in.

A look at various water vapor, satellite, radar and observational
data depicts a flat but fairly potent/classic, negatively tilted
shortwave trough and associated maturing mid-latitude cyclone moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley this afternoon, with the whole
system expected to slide east-northeast into the southern Great Lakes
tonight into Sunday. To the west, the steadiest and heaviest snow is
occurring from northern IL into northern/central IN, on the nose of
the stronger low to mid-level (i.e. 850 to 600mb) jet and warm
advection. In this area, good isentropic upglide along with some
pockets of low-mid level frontogenesis are leading to moderate to
strong lift, with some of this lift intersecting the dendritic growth
zone. This has led to a fairly solid shield of moderate to locally
heavy snow (with some embedded banded snow) in this area. As the
system lifts east-northeast, this zone of lift will spread across
western and northern portions of our forecast area late this
afternoon through this evening, bringing an initial period of snow
and likely the heaviest and most efficient snow of the event,
especially across Northwest Ohio. Increasingly dry low-levels and
more separation from the responsible shortwave and low pressure will
lead to snow potential with this initial band this evening becoming
more questionable farther east and southeast towards the Mt Vernon -
Canton - Youngstown corridor. Once this initial band of lift and snow
pushes northeast and out of the area into the overnight snow will
continue amid general warm air advection ahead of the approaching
mid-latitude cyclone, though mid-level moisture and lift will decrease
in this regime, leading to a lower ratio/less efficient snow and
generally lighter precipitation rates. Some breaks in the snow are
likely late tonight into Sunday morning as the dry slot spreads in,
though a band of precip is expected to swing west to east across the
area Sunday morning along the system`s trailing cold front.

Because the initial band of fluffier snow this evening will generally
be weaker with eastern/southeastern extend across our forecast area,
and because the snow the remainder of the event will be lower ratio
and lighter (as surface temperatures also climb towards and above
freezing from south-southwest to north-northeast between 1 AM and 8
AM), lowered snow amounts just slightly across most of our forecast
area outside of Northwest Ohio. In Northwest Ohio, hi-res and
regional models depict a few hours of potentially heavy snow as the
initial band of mid-level lift pushes through this evening, primarily
between 6 PM and 10 PM. Based on modeled QPF rates and forecast
soundings showing moderate to strong lift briefly maximizing in the
dendritic growth zone, snow rates of 1 to 1.5" per hour remain likely
for at least a brief window in the Toledo area, potentially impacting
surrounding counties such as Wood, Ottawa and Sandusky as well. Rates
will gradually become less impressive to the southeast, though may
briefly reach 0.5" per hour with the initial east-northeast moving
band of snow as far southeast as roughly a Mt Gilead-Akron-Warren
type line. Snow rates overnight tonight into early Sunday will mainly
be less than 0.5" per hour, though precipitation will take on a bit of
a convective component late tonight into Sunday morning ahead of the
cold front so some briefer bursts of modestly higher rates are not
impossible. Warm air aloft will tickle locations south of a Marion-
Warren line late tonight into early Sunday, which may allow just a bit
of sleet to mix in. Surface temperatures will also be warming by then
and any sleet looks brief, so it shouldn`t be too impactful and did
not include in the forecast. Snow will likely mix with some "plain
rain" Sunday morning ahead of the cold front as surface temperatures
briefly spike into the mid-upper 30s, especially outside of the Toledo
area and outside of the higher terrain in Northeast OH/Northwest PA,
before cold air advection kicks in behind the cold front, leading to
steady or slowly falling temperatures through the afternoon.

Total snow amounts through Sunday morning of 5-7" remain for Lucas
County, with 3-5" across the rest of the Winter Weather Advisory area
across Northwest Ohio. A note, Toledo Express Airport has not
recorded a 4"+ snow since January 25, 2023 or a 6"+ snow since
February 2-3, 2022. The period of heavy rates expected this evening
will lead to very difficult travel conditions in the Toledo area. This
may be a bit of a shock to the system for residents there after
lacking a 4"+ snowfall the last two winters, even if it`s a struggle
to quite get to the technical 6" warning criteria in Lucas County.
Elsewhere, amounts of 1-3" are in the forecast farther east/southeast,
highest in the higher terrain of the snowbelt and diminishing to near
or slightly under 1" towards Mt Vernon, Canton and Youngstown.
Anywhere across the area can experience some slick spots when snow
comes down and potentially accumulates on area roadways tonight.

After a relative dry break behind the cold front later Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon, a secondary surface trough and vort max will
cross Sunday evening. This may bring a few flurries or snow showers
area-wide, with some lake enhancement bringing locally up to a couple
inches in the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt. While an
overall light amount of precip/snow, this could lead to slick
conditions as air temperatures fall below freezing and into the 20s
Sunday evening and night. Lows by Monday morning will range from the
upper 20s in Northwest and Central Ohio to the mid 20s near Lake Erie.

Wind gusts will increase out of the south late tonight into Sunday
morning, with a brief push of strong west-southwest winds along and
just behind the cold front Sunday morning into the afternoon. In
general, 30-40 MPH gust wording will handle this. Downslope winds in
Erie County PA may briefly exceed 40 MPH early Sunday morning. The
strong push of winds along and just behind the cold front may also
briefly exceed 40 MPH across Northwest Ohio and then near the Lake
Erie shoreline farther east. For now no Wind Advisories are behind
issued, though will need to monitor the eastern lakeshore forecast
zones in particular for marginal Wind Advisory potential, mainly just
behind the cold front. A brief window of blowing snow is possible late
tonight as wind gusts increase and before the period of above-
freezing temperatures makes the snow on the ground less blowable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure slides through on Monday, leading to a brief period of
dry and quiet weather with high temperatures remaining colder than
average in the low to mid 30s.

The next system will bring some snow to the area overnight Monday
night into Tuesday, with some minor lake effect lingering into Tuesday
night across the snowbelt. While the amount of snow accumulation is
somewhat uncertain (but more likely on the lighter side), there is
increasing confidence (70-80%) in much of the area seeing measurable
snow. This snow will largely hit Monday night into early Tuesday with
air and ground temperatures expected to be well-below freezing. This
will lead to a likelihood of snow accumulation on roadways (especially
those that aren`t treated) and potential impacts to the Tuesday
morning commute, even if we only see a light overall accumulation.

A trough will eject out into the Plains Sunday night into Monday, with
two shortwaves expected to phase over the Midwest Monday into Monday
evening within this trough. This will allow the trough to gradually
sharpen as it lifts east-northeast across the Ohio Valley and southern
Great Lakes Monday night into early Tuesday, with some interaction
also expected between the trough and the sub-tropical jet stream by
Tuesday. Disagreement among guidance lies both in how well the two
shortwaves phase over the Midwest on Monday and in how much
interaction occurs between our trough and the sub-tropical jet late
Monday night into Tuesday. The ECMWF remains generally less phased
overall, depicting a more progressive system with lighter QPF/snow in
our forecast area. The NAM is the most aggressive all around, and does
not have much support from other global models or ensembles. The GFS
and CMC offer more of a middle ground, with somewhat more interaction
with the sub-tropical jet late Monday night into Tuesday across the
area. The difference between these solutions would be a light, sub-
advisory (likely 2 inches or less for most) from the unphased ECMWF
idea to a solid accumulating snow (perhaps 2 to 4 inches for most) if
a GFS/CMC like middle ground pans out. The NAM offers potential for
more snow, potentially 6"+, but only a couple of ensemble members
depict similar situations with that amount of snow above the 90th
percentile of the current envelope. In general, have seen the European
and its ensemble trend slightly more amplified in recent runs while
the NAM (and to a lesser extent the GFS) trend a bit flatter. It seems
like models are trying to converge towards the middle ground
solution, though further time to trend remains.

The take-home message at this point is that odds of an accumulating
snow that has some travel impacts overnight Monday night into Tuesday
morning are increasing. Confidence in exact amounts remains lower,
though odds for over 1" across the area per latest NBM guidance are
60-80% (slightly lower north/higher south) with odds for over 4"
generally 20-40%, highest south/east. Some potential for advisories
is on the table if we trend towards the somewhat snowier solution.

Lows Monday night will generally be in the mid 20s, with highs on
Tuesday in the low to mid 30s. Lows Tuesday night will range from the
mid-upper 10s across most inland locales to the mid 20s near the
eastern lakeshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next cold front crosses Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing
potential for a few snow showers area-wide followed by some lake
effect amid west-northwest winds to the snowbelt. This looks like a
quick hit, with high pressure quickly building in Thursday night.
However, 850mb temperatures briefly falling to -15C to -17C (per the
ECMWF and CMC) could allow for a relatively short window of somewhat
impactful, fluffy lake effect. The next system approaches from the
west to end the week, but significant uncertainty is present on model
guidance regarding both the progression east of that trough and how
cold it remains ahead of it over the eastern/northeastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Aloft, SW`erly flow persists over northern OH and NW PA as
ridging exits E`ward and troughing overspreads our region from
the west through 18Z/Sun. At the surface, a low strengthens as
it moves NE`ward from near the KS/MO border to near Georgian Bay
from 18Z/Sat to 18Z/Sun. This low track should allow an occluded
front to sweep E`ward through our area between ~12Z/Sun and
~18Z/Sun. Weak ridging is expected ahead of and behind the
front. Our regional surface winds trend SE`erly to S`erly around
5 to 15 knots ahead of the occluded front. These winds should
gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times this evening into early Sun
morning. Behind the front, SW`erly winds around 15 to 25 knots,
gusting up to 25 to 35 knots, are expected through 18Z/Sun.

Widespread ceilings are expected through the TAF period and will
trend VFR prior to the arrival of precip associated with the
aforementioned low pressure system. In addition, VFR visibility
is expected before and after precip. Widespread snow, steady to
heavy at times, should overspread our region gradually and
generally from west to east between ~20Z/Sat and ~05Z/Sun. Once
snow begins, primarily MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected and
visibility will vary between MVFR and LIFR. Snow should mix with
rain and generally from west to east between ~09Z/Sun and
~14Z/Sun. The rain/snow mix should end from west to east
between ~13Z/Sun and ~18Z/Sun. Widespread MVFR ceilings should
linger behind the precip.

Outlook...Non-VFR with periodic precip, mainly in the form of
snow, are expected Sunday afternoon through this Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory in effect for nearshore U.S. waters:
- From 7 PM today to 1 AM EST Monday from Maumee Bay to Reno
  Beach
- From 7 PM today to 4 AM Sunday from Reno Beach to Willowick
- From 10 PM today to 7 AM Sunday from Willowick to Ripley

Gale Warning in effect for U.S. waters:
- From 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM Sunday from Reno Beach to Vermilion
- From 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday from Vermilion to Willowick
- From 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday from Willowick to Buffalo

Low Water Advisory in effect for U.S. waters:
- From 3 AM Sunday to 10 PM Sunday from Maumee Bay to Vermilion

A low will deepen, overall, as it moves from near the IA/MO
border to southwestern Quebec late this afternoon through sunset
Sunday evening. This low track will allow an occluded front to
sweep E`ward across Lake Erie between roughly daybreak and early
afternoon on Sunday. Primarily SE`erly to S`erly winds around 5
to 15 knots late this afternoon will freshen to around 15 to 25
knots this evening. Accordingly, waves will build to as large as
4 to 7 feet in open U.S. waters, but remain 3 feet or less in
nearshore U.S. waters due to the short fetch. Between midnight
and daybreak Sunday morning, winds will become S`erly to SW`erly
and freshen to around 25 to 35 knots. Waves will build to as
large as 5 to 11 feet in open U.S. waters and 5 feet or less in
nearshore U.S. waters. The largest nearshore waves are expected
around 5 nm offshore given forecast fetch. On Sunday, SW`erly
winds as strong as 30 to 40 knots veer to W`erly as the occluded
front sweeps E`ward across Lake Erie. Waves as large as 5 to 15
feet or so are expected. The largest waves are forecast in the
open waters of the central and eastern basins.

During Sunday night, the aforementioned low should wobble
NE`ward to near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River and weaken
as a ridge overspreads Lake Erie from the north-central United
States. W`erly winds around 25 to 35 knots, initially, become
W`erly to NW`erly and ease to 5 to 15 knots by daybreak Monday.
Simultaneously, initial waves as large as 5 to 15 feet should
subside gradually to 4 feet or less. On Monday, the ridge is
expected to move E`ward across Lake Erie and allow W`erly to
NW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to back to S`erly. Any
lingering 4 footers should subside to 3 feet or less by late
morning.

During Monday night through Tuesday, a low should deepen as it
wobbles NE`ward from the northwestern Gulf to Atlantic waters
near the Delmarva Peninsula and extends a trough over Lake Erie.
Winds around 5 to 15 knots should vary between S`erly and
NW`erly over the lake as waves remain 3 feet or less. On
Tuesday night through Wednesday, another ridge should build from
the Lower OH Valley and vicinity as a cold front approaches
Lake Erie from the northwest. During Tuesday night, the
interaction between the building ridge and frontal trough should
allow primarily NW`erly winds to back toward SW`erly and
freshen to around 10 to 20 knots as waves build to as large as 4
feet (largest waves expected in open waters of the central
basin). On Wednesday, the continued interaction between the
building ridge and frontal trough should allow SW`erly winds to
freshen further to 20 to 30 knots as waves build to as large as
5 to 10 feet. Forecast trends will be monitored for the need of
a Small Craft Advisory.

The cold front should sweep SE`ward across Lake Erie Wednesday
night. SW`erly winds around 20 to 30 knots and waves as large as
5 to 10 feet are expected ahead of the front. Behind the front,
W`erly to NW`erly winds should ease gradually to around 10 to
20 knots overnight Wednesday night through Thursday as a ridge
builds from the Upper Midwest. Waves should subside gradually to
5 feet or less by sunset Thursday evening.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ003.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ006>008-
     017-018-027.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Monday
     for LEZ142.
     Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for
     LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for LEZ143>146.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ143-144-163-
     164.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for LEZ145-146-165-
     166.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Sunday for LEZ147>149.
     Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for
     LEZ147>149-167>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka