013
FXUS61 KCLE 100313
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1013 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large and deep upper level trough will bring much colder
temperatures and lake effect snowfall through Tuesday. An upper
level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
late this week with milder temperatures and fair weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...

Updated Crawford County, PA to a Lake-Effect Snow Warning
through 18Z Tuesday. Most of the area has made the switch over
to snow, with only some rain lingering along the lakeshore and
near the OH/PA border as strong cold air advection combines with
wet bulb cooling. Any leftover rain in far eastern Ohio should
switch over to snow by Midnight, except it will likely take
longer at the lakeshore. The forecast snow amounts remain on
track, with reports from snow spotters and ASOS sites generally
ranging from a trace to a few tenths this evening. The synoptic
snow will gradually exit from west to east tonight as the
deepest moisture pulls off to the NE with the exiting 850 mb
low, but lake enhancement and upsloping should put down a solid
1-3 inches over the higher terrain areas inland from the lake,
with locally up to 4 inches, before the steadiest snow ends.

After reviewing HREF guidance, there is a signal for a lull
Monday morning into much of the afternoon as the drier air works
in, with N to NW fetch lake-effect bands producing only intermittent
snow showers. This will likely lessen the impacts and overall
snow amounts before the next trough and better associated
moisture and lift drop across the area Monday evening into early
Tuesday. It is at that time when the better lake-effect bands
should set up as the improved moisture and lift combines with
backing boundary layer flow (increasing fetch) and strengthening
south shore convergence. This still looks like the most
interesting part of this extended event, with one dominant band
attempting to develop from eastern Cuyahoga County east through
the primary snowbelt and another band with a connection to Lake
Huron pivoting across NW PA. With all of this in mind,
confidence was highest to upgrade Crawford County, PA to a
warning, with HREF PMM amounts solidly in the 8-12 inch range
from now through Tuesday across inland Erie and Crawford
Counties, which jives closely with our ongoing snowfall
forecast. Warning amounts are possible in Geauga, and perhaps
eastern Cuyahoga and inland Ashtabula Counties, but given the
lengthy lull much of Monday, not sure that total snowfall for
this event will exceed 5 or 6 inches in many areas, and impacts
will also be spread out and manageable. This will continue to
be monitored since heavy snowfall is possible in those areas Monday
night.

Original Discussion...

The main weather message with this forecast update is the
potential for lake effect snow and accumulating snowfall for
both the primary and secondary Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA. This
lake effect snow event will start this evening and lingering
through Tuesday.

We have made some updates to the winter weather headlines. A
Winter Weather Advisory for Lake Effect Snow is now in effect
for all the primary and secondary Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA
starting this evening. The end time of the advisory varies from
west to east Monday into Tuesday as this lake effect event
transitions across the area. A Lake Effect Snow Warning has been
issued for inland Erie County PA where the highest snowfall
totals are expected and have significant winter weather
impacts. Be sure to look at the most recent updated WSW
products and winter weather headlines for specific details
including timing, forecast snowfall amounts, and expected
impacts.


The water vapor imagery and ther GOES-19 satellite channels
show very nicely a large and deep upper level trough is digging across
the Midwest and western Great Lakes. This deep trough will be
will bring down a blast of cold and bring our first round lake
effect snow for this season. As of 3 pm, the surface cold front
was approaching the Ohio/Pennsylvania state line. Behind the
front, northerly to northwesterly has started the cold air
advection into our area. After a lull this afternoon with the
rainfall earlier today, recent radar trends have shown an
uptick in precipitation developing across northwest Ohio and
western Lake Erie. Initially the precip will be in the form of
rain showers. During the evening, there will be a transition to
wet snow or graupel mixing in before all the precip changes
over to snow showers. There will be a period of lake enhanced
precip this evening with the northerly flow off the lake for
most of northern Ohio and NWPA. Later overnight and into Monday
morning, we will see bands of lake effect snow and possible
intense snow squalls. 850 mb temps will drop to -10C to -12c by
early Monday morning. Very strong lake induced instability will
develop with CAPE values 1000-1200 J/KG, thanks to an average
lake water temp of 53F. Most of northern Ohio and NWPA will see
accumulating snowfall by early Monday morning which could impact
the morning commute.

High-res model guidance still shows some mesoscale features that
we will have to keep an eye on tonight through Monday night. One
potential feature may be a Lake Huron connection trying to
develop later tonight and come across western Lake Erie into
NWOH early Monday morning. This Lake Huron connection if it
develops, may gradually pivot eastward during the day Monday
down the lakeshore. It could be near the Cleveland area around
midday and near the Ashtabula/Erie County PA area by Monday
evening. Our snowfall ratios will start around 8:1 this evening
and increase to around 15:1 by tomorrow morning. With this being
a wetter snowfall and some trees still have foliage, there may
be an increase risk for downed tree limbs onto power lines
causing scattered power outages.

Several inches of snowfall is expected in the winter weather
advisory area by tomorrow morning. Snowfall rates may exceed 1
inch per hour in the more organized lake effect bands. There is
the potential for a few isolated intense snow squalls that could
have rates of 1 to 2 inch per hour in localized areas of the
Snowbelt. Temperatures will fall into the mid/upper 20s to
around 30 degrees tonight. High temperatures on Monday will stay
in the 30s. with scattered lake effect snow showers and squalls.
Accumulation during the day will be dependent on where bands
persist and snowfall rates to overcome temperatures being near
or slightly above freezing to account for melting.

The northerly flow will become west-northwesterly by Monday
evening and night. The lake effect snow potential will also
shift to more of the primary Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA Monday
night. There may be a Lake Huron connection that could impact
NWPA and the Erie PA area most of Monday night before it shifts
eastward Tuesday morning. Overall 1 to 3 inches of snowfall will
be possible outside of the advisory area. 2 to 5 inches of
snowfall with localized higher amounts possible in the advisory
area. 6 to 11 inches will possible be in the warning area which
is inland Erie County PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ongoing lake effect snow will slowly wind down for NEOH and
NWPA Tuesday morning lingering into midday. The low level flow
will become southwesterly on Tuesday and that will slowly shut
the lake effect off. The low levels of the atmosphere will also
start warming on Tuesday and become less favorable from west to
east. We have all of the headlines ending by midday on Tuesday.
Lingering lake effect will may hug closer to the lakeshore
Tuesday afternoon and mix with or change over to rain showers.
A strong low pressure system will move across the Upper Great
Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. Strong gusty southwesterly
winds will increase 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Another cold front will move through the
region on Wednesday and change the flow to westerly and
eventually west-northwest. This W-NW flow will bring back the
chance for scattered lake effect rain showers possible mixing
with some wet snow flakes late Wednesday and Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The end of the week and next weekend will favor nicer weather as
temperatures rebound back to more seasonable averages or even a
little above average. An upper level ridge will build in over
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by the end of the week and next
weekend with milder weather and fair weather. A surface high
pressure system will also build over the Ohio Valley by Friday.
Temperatures will climb back into the 50s to near 60s next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Rain will continue to mix with and change to wet snow from
southwest to northeast through early tonight allowing widespread
IFR and occasional LIFR conditions to continue, although there
should be improvement at KTOL and KFDY after 06Z or so as the
steadiest precip shifts east. This will lead to these NW Ohio
terminals mostly drying out for Monday with VFR returning
except for tough to time passing snow showers off Lake Michigan.
Farther east in north central and northeast Ohio through
northwest PA, the rain that slowly changes to snow tonight will
remain steadier through at least mid morning Monday, with
resultant IFR or lower being more common through Monday morning.
This is due to the widespread synoptic precip transitioning to
lake enhanced and lake-effect snow over the higher terrain
inland from the lakeshore. Confidence decreases on Monday from
about 15Z onward through the afternoon/end of the TAF cycle
regarding the coverage of snow showers. Lake-effect snow showers
will continue, but drier air should reduce the coverage in the
afternoon and early evening, with backing winds also pushing the
bands slowly to the east. The best estimate at this time is for
the most frequent snow showers to end at KMFD by early afternoon
and by late afternoon at KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG. All of these
sites should see some VFR by mid to late afternoon. The frequent
snow showers and MVFR/periods of IFR are likely to linger at
KERI much of the afternoon.

N winds this evening will gradually back to NW tonight and
Monday morning, with speeds of 10-15 knots gusting to 20-25
knots at times. Winds will continue to back to WNW by Monday
evening, with gradually diminishing speeds, but still gusting
to around 20 knots near the lakeshore affecting KERI.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions will continue in
northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with lake effect
showers through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist for much of this
week as an active weather pattern continues to impact the region.
Today, winds on Lake Erie will gradually shift from northeasterly to
more north-northwesterly by this evening as a low pressure system
tracks east just south of the lakeshore. This low will move off the
New England Coast on Monday, resulting in a surface trough with
north-northwest flow lingering over the east Great Lakes. Given the
fetch, lake effect snow is likely inland, but over the water much
should remain rain with an isolated potential for thunder in the
most well developed bands. Winds will remain sustained at 20 to 30
knots with the strongest winds across the central basin. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the entire
southern lakeshore of Lake Erie through Tuesday.

On Tuesday night, hazardous marine conditions will continue as
another low pressure system centered near Hudson Bay moves an
associated surface trough east across the area. This will once again
increase the gradient, moving a warm front east on Tuesday night
followed by a cold front on Wednesday. During this period, there is
a potential that the central and eastern basins of Lake Erie will
see gale force southwesterly winds. Will need to monitor the
strength of winds expected in the coming forecasts, but this period
will definitely need a Small Craft Advisory if not a Gale Warning.
By Wednesday night, high pressure should start to nudge northeast,
allowing for winds to slowly diminish through the day on Thursday.
By Thursday night, west-northwest winds should fall below 20 knots
and allow for a break in the hazardous conditions across the lake.
Until then, waves will frequently exceed 4 feet and winds will
remain stronger than 20 knots. Boaters should use caution this week
if going out on the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for OHZ010-019-
     020-029>031.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for OHZ011>014-
     089.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ021>023.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...04