084
FXUS64 KCRP 092327
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
527 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through this evening
  across South Texas. Elevated fire weather persists into midweek.

- Hazardous seas and Gale-force winds through early Monday morning.

- Medium to high (40-80%) chance for morning low temperatures in
  the 30s over northern tier counties. Low (10-30%) chance of
  brief freezing temperatures in cold drainage areas stretching
  across McMullen County to Goliad County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Conditions are developing as expected following this morning`s
cold front. Critical fire weather conditions are in play, strong
north to northeasterly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph
and relative humidity has dropped to 15-30% across South Texas. A
Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 9 PM tonight. Although
winds diminish tomorrow, elevated fire weather conditions will be
in place and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of
South Texas from 9 AM to 9 PM.

Lows tonight will drop into 40s, with a few localized area in our
northern counties dropping into the upper 30s. Early Tuesday
morning is looking to be our coldest of the season so far, light
winds and clear skies will set the stage for efficient radiational
cooling. There is a medium to high (40-80%) chance for lows
dropping into the 30s over our northern counties, stretching from
La Salle to Victoria counties. In fact, the NBM has a low (10-30%)
chance of brief freezing temperatures in cold drainage areas
stretching across McMullen County to Goliad County.

Onshore flow returns Tuesday, returning a warming trend heading
into the upcoming weekend, with highs back well into the 80s by
Wednesday and lows in the 60s. The next cold front looks to arrive
Saturday or Sunday, bringing our only mentionable low chances for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the entirety of the TAF cycle.
Winds are expected to remain elevated into tomorrow
afternoon/evening for most sites with the exception of COT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Sustained winds of 20-30 knots with frequent Gale-force gusts has
warranted an expansion of the Gale Warning to cover the bays
through 2 PM this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory will follow
through mid-afternoon Monday for the bays. The Gale Warning
remains in effect for the open waters through 8 AM Monday, before
being replaced by a Small Craft Advisory through 6 PM Monday.
Conditions are expected to improve by Monday evening, with winds
below 20 knots and seas subsiding below 7 feet. Gentle to moderate
(BF 3-4) onshore flow returns Tuesday, strengthening to a south
to southeasterly fresh to strong breeze (BF 5-6) Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh breeze will follow to
close out the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    45  64  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          38  62  34  74 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            46  67  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             43  65  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          47  63  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           41  65  39  77 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        43  65  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       51  63  53  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ229>234-
     239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270-275.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-
     270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...NP/92