Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
095 FXUS64 KCRP 142337 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 637 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Increasing risk of coastal flooding during high tide at night through the first part of this week - Daily low (20-30%) shower and thunderstorm chances during the upcoming work week peaking to 40-45% Wed/Thu && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 There`s a moisture axis over the Rio Grande Valley resulting in a low (20-30%) chance for showers/thunderstorms today along the Rio Grande river and western Brush Country. Otherwise, most of South Texas will remain dry today as we remain under the influence of high pressure centered over Mexico. Meanwhile, a mid-level low/troughing just lee of the Rockies will lift northeast across the northern Plains followed by several other lows dropping down from Canada throughout the upcoming work week. Coupled with the aforementioned high retreating westward, allowing for troughing and some limited PVA to move in over the region and stretching down into Deep South Texas. This will result in low (~20-30%) daily rain chances starting Monday, peaking to around 40-45% mid- week. Highs throughout the period will range from the upper 80s along the coast to the upper 90s over the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. Lows over the period will generally range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees. P-ETSS guidance is trending upward slightly for seas through the next few tide cycles. Indicating an increased threat for minor coastal flooding during times of high tide, which is currently around 1:50 AM. Despite guidance forecasting sea levels around 1.8 feet MSL, last night no flooding was observed so will continue to monitor conditions and will issue products as necessary. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period. Some periods of MVFR VSBYs will be possible at a couple eastern TAF sites (ALI and VCT) around daybreak through mid- morning as a low chance for patchy fog does exist. This is expected to be brief once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly breeze conditions expected to persist throughout the week. There will be a low to medium chance (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms this week. Seas will generally range from 3 to 5 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 10 30 Victoria 70 93 67 94 / 0 20 0 10 Laredo 74 98 72 96 / 0 10 0 10 Alice 72 94 70 94 / 0 20 10 20 Rockport 78 91 77 91 / 10 20 10 30 Cotulla 73 95 71 95 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 73 93 72 93 / 0 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 80 88 80 89 / 20 30 20 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BF/80 AVIATION...NP/92