Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
829 FXUS64 KCRP 201117 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 517 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Low to medium rain chances through early next week, with greater chances and focus over the Hill Country and North Texas. - Warmer than normal temperatures continue through early next week before more seasonal conditions take hold. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 A slow-moving Pacific front currently positioned over the Desert Southwest will continue its gradual eastward progression across West Texas through Thursday. As this boundary approaches, the associated mid- and upper-level trough will evolve into a negatively tilted system, enhancing southwesterly flow aloft across Texas. This pattern is already drawing deep subtropical Pacific moisture over the region, with PWATs across the region progged to climb into the 1.5-1.8 inch range today. While this moisture increase will support the development of scattered showers, instability and ascent within the 700-850mb layer will remain limited, which will decrease the potential for heavier or more widespread rainfall across our area. By late Friday, the Pacific front is expected to stall just north of South Texas as it weakens. The combination of persistent moisture and some modest PVA near the boundary will maintain low to medium rain chances (20-50%) through the weekend. Most of the CWA will only see rainfall totals of 0.25 inches or less, while the Victoria Crossroads stands the best chance of receiving up to 1.00-1.25 inches given its closer proximity to the weakening boundary and deeper plume of moisture stretching into southeast Texas. The risk for stronger storms and heavier rainfall will remain displaced to the north and west of the region. Widespread impacts are not anticipated locally. Another upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward from southern California/northwestern Mexico Sunday into Monday, briefly reinforcing moisture and lift across the region. This system is expected to bring another round of scattered showers, with the greatest rainfall potential displaced north of the region. Rain chances finally begin to diminish by Tuesday as drier air filters into the region and large-scale forcing shifts east. Temperatures will remain above normal through early next week with highs generally in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, supported by persistent southerly flow and warm mid-level temperatures. A more notable change in temperatures is possible by the middle to latter part of next week as the aforementioned system approaches, bringing the first opportunity in several days to return to near-seasonal conditions heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 This morning will begin with a little bit of everything across South Texas. VFR conditions for CRP, a mix of VFR/MVFR for COT, MVFR for LRD and ALI, and IFR/LIFR for VCT. Low clouds will persist into mid-morning across portions of the area before improving to mainly VFR conditions. Winds will increase this afternoon with gusts to 20-25 knots. There is a low chance of showers today and this evening, so have included PROB30 groups for COT, VCT, and CRP. Confidence is not high enough to include ALI and LRD in any mention of rain, but it can not be ruled out today and tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Moderate to occasionally fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly winds will continue through the end of the week, keeping seas generally in the 3-5 ft range. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the weekend as an upper-level disturbance approaches. Onshore flow is expected to strengthen to fresh to strong (BF5-6) early next week ahead of the next frontal passage. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain low through early next week, as minimum relative humidity values stay above 40% across the region. Winds have increased to 10-15 mph ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, though the boundary itself is not expected to make significant southward progress into South Texas. With abundant low- level moisture in place and the front lingering nearby, low to moderate rain chances (20-50%) will persist through the weeekend. Another front is forecast to move through early next week. In its wake, minimum relative humidity is expected to fall to around 30-35% across the Brush Country. However, lighter winds near 5 mph should keep fire weather concerns minimal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 84 71 88 70 / 40 10 30 30 Victoria 85 67 87 66 / 20 10 50 40 Laredo 89 71 88 71 / 10 10 10 20 Alice 88 67 90 67 / 30 10 20 30 Rockport 83 73 85 71 / 20 20 30 40 Cotulla 86 68 85 67 / 30 30 10 30 Kingsville 87 69 90 68 / 30 10 20 20 Navy Corpus 81 74 83 73 / 20 10 30 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...LS/77