Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
633 FXUS64 KCRP 190600 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Low to medium rain chances into early next week, greater chances and focus over the Hill Country and North Texas. - Warmer than normal temperatures continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A slow-moving Pacific storm system currently advancing into the Southwest CONUS will be the primary driver of an increasingly unsettled pattern across Texas through the end of the week. Moisture will continue to deepen across the region Wednesday (PWATs climbing toward 1.5-1.8 inches), with low clouds and very light streamer showers possible early in the day. By Wednesday afternoon, the upper low begins shifting east across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico, providing enough large-scale ascent to support isolated to scattered showers across portions of the region. As the upper low elongates Wednesday night into Thursday, forcing for ascent increases across the state. The cold front associated with this system will advance into Central and North Texas Thursday/Friday, although its southward progression is expected to slow as it approaches our CWA. The combination of the nearby frontal boundary, a pre-frontal surface trough, and above average moisture will favor an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday through Friday. Probabilities generally range from 30-50%, with the highest chances draped over portions of the northern Brush Country and Coastal Plains, as well as the Victoria Crossroads and eastern Coastal Bend. By the weekend, the residual boundary is expected to stall near or just north of the region, allowing for continued low to moderate rain chances (20-40%). As our next disturbance approaches early next week, the stalled boundary will likely lift northward as a warm front before a new cold front pushes through, reducing rain chances by midweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Poor aviation conditions can be expected across area terminals tonight mainly due to low ceilings. Conditions are forecast to improve to VFR levels around mid to late Wednesday morning, with generally VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. A few streamer showers are progged to move inland today, but confidence on location and timing is too low at this time to be included in the TAFs. Winds will remain light and variable overnight, before becoming gusty at around 15-20 knots Wednesday afternoon at the eastern sites. Winds will decouple by the evening hours, becoming light again late Wednesday night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly flow will persist through the end of the week, with seas holding near 3-5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Thursday before increasing in coverage late Thursday into Friday as a strong upper-level system approaches. By Friday and Saturday, wind direction may become more variable as a weak frontal boundary approaches the region, keeping daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in place through the weekend and early next week. By then, onshore flow will strengthen to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) ahead of the next passing frontal system. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Fire weather conditions are expected to remain minimal through early next week, as minimum relative humidity levels will be above 40% across the region. Winds are forecast to increase Wednesday in advance of an approaching frontal boundary, though the boundary itself is unlikely to make significant southward progress into South Texas. With abundant low-level moisture in place and the front lingering nearby, low to medium (30-50%) rain chances will continue through Friday before easing slightly (20-40%) over the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead into next week, another front is expected to sweep through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 86 71 86 71 / 10 20 10 20 Victoria 87 67 86 66 / 0 10 30 30 Laredo 92 72 92 72 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 90 68 90 68 / 0 10 10 20 Rockport 83 72 83 71 / 10 20 20 20 Cotulla 90 70 90 71 / 0 0 10 20 Kingsville 88 69 89 69 / 0 10 10 20 Navy Corpus 82 74 82 73 / 10 20 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...ANM/88