387
FXUS64 KCRP 291914
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
114 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Dangerous swimming conditions, HIGH risk of rip currents through
  this afternoon.

- Marginal risk for severe storms and flash flooding tonight ahead of
  a cold front early Sunday morning, mainly over the Victoria
  Crossroads.

- Medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday
  night into early Sunday morning, then again Sunday night through
  Monday.

- Near freezing wind chills over our northern counties early
  Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A strong cold front remains on track to sweep through South Texas
late tonight into early Sunday morning between roughly midnight
and 7AM. Increasing lift along and ahead of the boundary,
supported by a strengthening LLJ and mid-level shortwave activity,
will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms
overnight. The greatest potential for strong to severe convection
continues to focus over the Victoria Crossroads and northern
Coastal Bend, where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) persists.

The 18Z CRP sounding shows MUCAPE of ~1500 J/kg, effective bulk
shear of ~45 knots, and mid-level lapse rates of ~7 degC/km, all
supportive of updraft organization. With filtered daytime heating
due to mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over a majority of the
region, further destabilization will remain minimal. Hail and
damaging winds remain the primary hazards with any stronger cores
that can develop. However, the cold front will likely undercut
convection pretty quickly. There also appears to be a low chance
for isolated storms out ahead of the front. The large scale
forcing will remain on the weaker side. However, if able to tap
into the modest instability and sufficient shear, the threat for a
brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out (albeit the overall
threat is very low). In addition, elevated rainfall rates along
training convective segments may lead to localized flooding
concerns, also mainly in the Crossroads region where a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) for excessive rainfall remains in effect.

Behind the front, a surface low is expected to form over the
Gulf and stall the boundary close to the coast. Persistent
isentropic ascent north of this feature combined with mid-level
PVA will maintain medium to high (50-75%) chance for showers and
thunderstorms late Sunday night through the day on Monday. By
Monday night into early Tuesday, high pressure surges in bringing
with it drier air and reduced rain chances through midweek before
our next frontal system arrives sometime Thursday. With models
persistently indicating coastal troughing and increasing moisture
(PWATs between 1.5-2.0 inches) ahead of this boundary, another
round of precipitation appears in the cards late in the week.

As for temperatures this period, expect highs and lows to fall
below average in the wake of Sunday`s front. Highs on Monday will
fall to the 50s with lows dipping into the upper 30s to mid-40s.
Gradual warming is anticipated by midweek as onshore flow returns,
allowing daytime highs to climb into the 60s to low 70s and lows
into the upper 40s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A moist, unsettled pattern will persist through the period as a
strong cold front approaches and moves through South Texas. Ahead
of the front this afternoon and evening, VFR conditions will
dominate with gusty southerly winds of 20-30 knots. Speeds
gradually diminish tonight. Around the 08-10Z timeframe,
conditions begin to deteriorate from north to south as the front
propagates in. Winds quickly shift to become north-northeasterly
and strengthen to sustained speeds of 15-20 knots with higher
gusts developing through mid-morning. At the same time, periods of
rain will become increasingly likely, with our eastern terminals
(ALI/CRP/VCT) showing a window for embedded thunderstorms
producing brief VSBY restrictions and lower CIGs. Periods of MVFR
and localized IFR are possible, especially during the 08-14Z
timeframe when the probabilities for storms is greatest. By late
morning and early afternoon Sunday, most sites should return to
prevailing VFR or MVFR with improving VSBYs, though low CIGs may
linger behind the front. Strong northerly winds will persist into
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Fresh to strong (BF 5-6) south-southeasterly winds continue this
afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
before turning to the north-northeast in the wake of the front on
Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through the day
Sunday. Winds fall to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) early next week
with onshore flow returning Wednesday. Rain chance increase to a
medium to high (50-75%) chance tonight through Monday night. By
Monday night into early Tuesday, high pressure surges in bringing
with it drier air and reduced rain chances through midweek. Medium
to high chances of showers and thunderstorms return mid-to-late
next week in association with our next frontal system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 40% through this next
week along with below average temperatures Sunday through Tuesday
following a strong cold front early Sunday morning. Medium to high
chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast tonight through
Monday in association with the frontal passage as well as the
formation and subsequent stalling of a surface low of the coast.
Additionally, north-northeasterly winds will increase to 15-25 mph
behind the front. A brief lull in rain chances is expected after a
reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through late Monday night
into Tuesday, but low to medium rain chances return Wednesday
through Friday as additional disturbances arrive. There are no
elevated fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    53  62  45  56 /  50  30  60  60
Victoria          46  54  42  53 /  80  30  50  80
Laredo            54  62  46  60 /  10  20  50  20
Alice             51  60  41  55 /  50  30  60  50
Rockport          54  63  46  59 /  60  40  60  70
Cotulla           51  56  42  54 /  20  10  40  20
Kingsville        53  63  43  56 /  50  30  60  40
Navy Corpus       58  67  50  60 /  60  40  70  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...KRS/98