Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
494 FXUS64 KCRP 220603 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1203 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Scattered showers and storms today and Sunday along a weak front. - Another system to bring showers and thunderstorms on Monday to northern portions of the area. - A stronger cold front should push through by midweek, bringing noticeably cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Moisture pooled along a sluggish frontal boundary stretching just north of the region continues to support episodes of light rain and isolated thunderstorms through the weekend. Across the Coastal Bend, PWATs near 1.6-1.8 inches will maintain low to moderate (30-60%) rain chances through Sunday, though limited mid-level lift and weak instability will keep rainfall totals generally under 0.50 inch, with the Victoria Crossroads potentially approaching an inch. On Sunday, the weak boundary will lift north was a warm front as mid- level ridging temporarily builds in. This will lead to a short-lived uptick in temperatures before a stronger upper trough emerging from the Rockies sends the next cold front toward the region. Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of this system will boost moisture once again, with PWATs climbing into the 1.5-1.7 inch range by late Sunday. Additionally, a strengthening LLJ late Sunday into Monday will provide improved forcing for ascent leading to a more organized band of showers and storms across portions of the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. This front will continue to push south early next week, though its timing remains uncertain as long range models show it briefly stalling near the coast before a second, stronger front surges southward by midweek. Isolated showers may redevelop Tuesday ahead of the initial boundary, with more widespread rain chances returning Wednesday as the strong front sweeps through. By Wednesday night and Thanksgiving Day, high pressure will usher in noticeably cooler and drier air across all of South Texas. High temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s with lows into mid-40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 VFR conditions early in the period will continue to deteriorate overnight as light and variable winds, increasing low-level moisture, and reduced mixing promote the development of patchy fog and low clouds. Several terminals are expected to fall to MVFR/IFR toward daybreak, with pockets of LIFR possible. Scattered showers will begin to increase late tonight into Saturday morning. All sites have PROB30 groups included for more significant CIG and VSBY reductions from -SHRA or isolated TSRA, with brief periods of denser fog for ALI and VCT. By late morning into the afternoon, winds become northeasterly around 5-10 knots. Deeper moisture and weak forcing will lead to additional intermittent -SHRA and TSRA across much of the region. While gradual improvement toward higher-end MVFR or VFR is anticipated by late afternoon into the early evening at some locations, uncertainty remains high given the potential for lingering convection and saturated lower levels. && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east-southeasterly winds will continue through Sunday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also remain possible through the weekend as a quasi-stationary front is draped over the area. Onshore flow is expected to briefly strengthen to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) Sunday night through Monday night ahead of the next frontal passage, which will bring another chance of showers and storms. Rain chances stick around into Tuesday as this front will be slow to pass. It is forecast to move offshore by midweek after being reinforced by a stronger cold front, turning winds to the north- northeast and increasing flow to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain low through early next week, as minimum relative humidity values stay above 40% across the region. With abundant low-level moisture in place and a weakened front lingering nearby, low to moderate rain chances (30-60%) will persist through the weeekend. Winds will increase on Sunday into Monday to 10-15 mph due to an enhanced low-level jet and another approaching frontal boundary. This system could result in additional rain chances through midweek before a stronger front surges southward. In the wake of the passing front, minimum relative humidity is expected to fall to around 30-35% across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. However, lighter winds between 5-10 mph should keep fire weather concerns minimal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 87 69 82 68 / 10 30 40 30 Victoria 87 64 81 58 / 30 60 40 10 Laredo 88 70 84 69 / 10 10 30 40 Alice 90 67 84 65 / 20 30 50 30 Rockport 84 70 82 68 / 20 40 60 20 Cotulla 85 66 81 63 / 20 30 40 30 Kingsville 90 68 84 66 / 20 30 40 30 Navy Corpus 83 72 80 72 / 10 20 50 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...LS/77