Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
548 FXUS64 KCRP 142323 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 623 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 620 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Coastal flooding risk decreases the remainder of the week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 With the cancellation of the Coastal Flood Advisory earlier this morning, the general trend for the remainder of the work weak is a decreasing one. This weekend, swell periods increase to near or above 7 seconds, however a south/southeasterly onshore flow will help keep the coastal flood risk down. At the upper levels, ridging will continue to keep drier air across much of the South. On the southern periphery of this ridge, an inverted trough is circling around the ridge with a more inverted trough like feature moving onshore late Wednesday and being absorbed into a trough moving in from the Intermountain West. At the surface, this will increase chances for rain primarily in the open waters of the Gulf and more so towards Southeast Texas. The Victoria Crossroads have a 10-20% PoPs Friday, but that pretty much is the extent of any mentionable PoPs for this forecast package. As the aforementioned trough moves through Texas this weekend, a surface cold front will also move through the region, though not so much with any noticeable temperature drop. This will primarily be one in which dewpoint temperatures drop as drier air filters in behind the front. Min RH`s drop from the 35-40% across the Brush Country on Saturday to Min RH`s as low as 25% for the same area on Sunday. While winds will remain behind the frontal passage, this will still need to be monitored for any fire concerns given the low RH values. Temperature wise, low temperatures across the inland zones will still bottom out in the low to mid 60s for the next two mornings, before climbing back into the upper 60s/low 70s for the remainder of the week. Highs will still climb into the mid to upper 90s across the Brush Country this week, allowing the Heat Risk to climb to a Moderate risk during the peak heating of the day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 CIGs at LRD have been hovering around MVFR levels as we see decaying showers in the vicinity. Have noted just above MVFR levels in the TAFs, and expect this to last only a couple of hours before CIGS begin to increase. Farther east the persistent cloud cover we have seen today will dissipate more quickly. VCT already SKC, and seeing the edge of the clouds approaching CRP. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours and the day tomorrow, but do have mention of an MVFR VIS at ALI in the early morning hours. Outside of brief gusts near LRD this evening, generally light winds are expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 A gentle breeze (BF 3) Wednesday and Thursday. The flow is expected to strengthen to moderate (BF 4) out of the southeast by Friday. Low (5-20%) rain chances expected through the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% through most of the period and the ERC forecast will be at 70-90th percentile across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. However, a generally weak east to southeast wind should preclude any fire weather threats. The chance for wetting rains is low to medium (10-40%) this afternoon across the southern Coastal Bend to the southern Brush Country. Low to very low chances expected the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 67 88 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 62 91 63 88 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 70 93 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 64 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 70 87 73 87 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 66 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 64 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 74 85 75 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...PH/83