419
FXUS64 KCRP 281116
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
516 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Dangerous swimming conditions ahead of front, HIGH risk of rip
  currents tonight through Saturday

- Cold front Sunday morning with reinforcing surge of high pressure
  Monday night into Tuesday morning

- Low (20-40%) chance of showers Friday through Friday night,
  increases to moderate (40-60%) Saturday through Monday, greatest
  chances over Victoria Crossroads

- Low chance of freezing temperatures early morning Monday through
  Wednesday from Victoria to La Salle counties

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Surface high pressure moving eastward into the SE CONUS returning
moist onshore flow in combination of a passing mid-level shortwave,
will allow for a low chance (20-40%) of showers today, mainly over
the Brush Country. There is little instability, therefore I left
thunderstorms out until we get more CAPE Saturday when moisture
builds over the 75th percentile and rain chances (30-60%) focus
over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. Southeast Texas
brushing into the Victoria Crossroads does have a marginal risk
for strong to severe storms ahead of the front. Strong onshore
flow will create dangerous swimming conditions along the Middle
Texas Coast tonight and Saturday, warranting a HIGH risk of rip
currents.

Our next cold front is well on track to surge through South Texas
early Sunday morning, with the latest NAM showing faster progression
than global models. Ahead of the front Saturday night is when we`ll
experience our greatest and most widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances, 40-85% chance, west to east respectively. Once the front
passes, much drier and colder air will filter in, resulting in below
normal temperatures heading into the work week. Mid-level
disturbances along with isentropic lift promoted from a surface low
developing over the northwest Gulf, will keep cloudy skies intact
and medium shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday.

Cold air advection, cloudy skies, and rain chances will limit high
temperatures considerably early in the work week. Highs on Monday
will likely only extend into the 50s, and 55-65 degrees on Tuesday
as we get breaks in cloud coverage. Early morning low temperatures
Monday through Wednesday will likely reach the mid to upper 30s over
our northern counties from La Salle to Victoria, whereas the coast
will experience low to mid 40s. It is worth noting that the 01Z NBM
run shows a low to medium (30-50%) chance of freezing temperatures
being met from Victoria to McMullen each morning. This is a notable
jump compared to earlier runs 24 hours ago. But I have VERY LOW
confidence in this freezing potential, I`m doing my best to find
where NBM is grabbing these chances and I don`t see any ensemble
probabilities of the GFS or ECMWF that show any chances of freezing
temperatures, the only ensemble solution that shows anything is the
CMC and that is only a 20-30%. The NBM mean is even warmer than the
NBM 75th percentile, so there are more solutions of cooler
temperatures but still very warm solutions that skews the mean. The
90% confidence interval contains a 10-15 degree spread for minimum
temperatures, but as long as we stay cloudy, I struggle to see any
efficient cooling and below freezing dewpoints to cause freezing
conditions.

A reinforcing surge of high pressure will push through late Monday
night into Tuesday morning, diminishing rain chances temporarily.
Surface high pressure will extend east of Texas heading into the
middle of next week, returning onshore flow and a gradual warming
trend. High temperatures creep back into the 70s by next Wednesday-
Thursday, with lows Wednesday night from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Rain chances also return mid to late next week due to an approaching
cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Overnight`s cloud deck will persist through the TAF period. While
CIGs remain in VFR territory across the Victoria Crossroads
through the end of the TAF cycle, locations to the west will see
MVFR CIGs by the afternoon. KALI/KCOT/KLRD have lower
probabilities of hit or miss showers so PROB30s have been included
for that. Winds will be out of the southeast at 15-20 kt gusting
near 25 kts. Winds diminish to near 10 kts by the end of the TAF
cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) easterly flow early this morning will
strengthen out of the southeast later this morning, causing a
fresh to strong breeze to persist through Saturday night. A Small
Craft Advisory will remains in effect Friday through Saturday.
There is high confidence a strong cold front will pass through
early Sunday morning, leading to strong to near Gale (BF 6-7)
north to northeasterly winds in the wake, diminishing to fresh to
strong (BF 5-6) Sunday night into Tuesday. Low rain chances today
will increase to a medium to high chance of 50-90% Saturday
through Monday, then decrease to a low chance Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 30% into the middle of
next week. A low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms
Friday through Monday, with greatest chances Saturday night ahead
of a cold front, especially over the Victoria Crossroads.
A strong cold front will pass through early Sunday morning with a
reinforcing surge of high pressure on Tuesday. Below normal
temperatures dominate into the middle of next week following the
cold front Sunday morning with onshore flow returning by Tuesday
shortly before another cold front pushes through mid to late next
week. Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  67  81  51 /  10  30  30  70
Victoria          73  62  79  46 /  10  40  60  80
Laredo            74  67  81  54 /  40  10   0  10
Alice             75  64  83  50 /  20  30  20  50
Rockport          75  68  80  51 /  10  40  50  80
Cotulla           70  64  80  51 /  40  30   0  20
Kingsville        75  65  83  51 /  20  30  20  50
Navy Corpus       75  70  79  56 /  20  40  40  80

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Saturday
     afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST Saturday for
     GMZ231-232-236-237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...AE/82