Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
377 FXUS64 KCRP 211103 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 503 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 458 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Low to medium rain chances through early next week, with greater chances and focus over the Hill Country and North Texas. - Warmer than normal temperatures continue through early next week before more seasonal conditions take hold. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1140 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 A slow-moving cold front advancing across Texas this evening will continue eastward before losing momentum and stalling just north of our CWA late Friday/early Saturday. This boundary forms in response to an upper-level trough extending from Nevada into northern Mexico, which is supporting strong diffluence aloft and transporting deep subtropical Pacific moisture eastward. As a result, PWATs across our region are expected to rise into the 1.5- 1.8 inch range, creating a moist environment favorable for scattered shower and storm development. However, instability and lift within the mid-levels remain limited, which will restrict rainfall efficiency and reduce the likelihood of widespread heavy/beneficial rainfall locally. The more organized and heavier rainfall is expected to remain displaced to the north and west, where persistent training of storms has already produced notable accumulates across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country earlier Thursday. Most of South Texas can expect rainfall totals of 0.25-1.00 inch, with the Victoria Crossroads most likely to see the higher end of that range due to its proximity to the weakening frontal zone. Rain chances will gradually taper from west to east early next week as drier air filters into the region. However, another upper-level disturbance emerging from the western CONUS late Sunday into Monday may briefly reinforce moisture and lift, bringing another period of scattered showers before conditions dry out more substantially Monday night. This second system appears to carry a stronger Pacific front, increasing confidence in a quicker end to precipitation compared to the current setup. Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend given continued southerly flow and warm mid-level temperatures. A more noticeable cool-down is anticipated by mid- to late next week as the aforementioned system and corresponding cold front approaches, signaling a shift toward a more seasonal pattern heading into Thanksgiving. Highs are forecast to return to the 70s with lows in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 All terminals currently have VFR/MVFR ceilings, but expect that conditions could drop to MVFR/IFR around sunrise. There is also some potential for brief MVFR visibility, but confidence in fog is low. Expect low stratus to linger through mid-morning before VFR conditions return across South Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and overnight so have included PROB30 groups at all sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 1140 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south-southeaserly winds will continue through the weekend, keeping seas generally in the 3-5 ft range. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also remain possible through the weekend as an upper-level disturbance approaches. Onshore flow is expected to strengthen to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) early next week ahead of the next frontal passage. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1140 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain low through early next week, as minimum relative humidity values stay above 40% across the region. With abundant low-level moisture in place and a weakened front lingering nearby, low to moderate rain chances (30-60%) will persist through the weeekend. Another front is forecast to move through the weekend.Winds will increase on Sunday into Monday to 10-15 mph ahead of another approaching frontal boundary. This system could result in additional rain chances through Monday. In the wake of the passing front, minimum relative humidity is expected to fall to around 30-35% across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. However, lighter winds between 5-10 mph should keep fire weather concerns minimal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 87 70 83 70 / 10 40 60 20 Victoria 87 65 82 60 / 30 50 30 10 Laredo 88 71 85 70 / 10 30 40 40 Alice 90 66 85 66 / 20 40 60 30 Rockport 84 71 82 69 / 20 40 50 20 Cotulla 85 66 81 66 / 20 30 40 40 Kingsville 90 69 85 68 / 20 30 50 20 Navy Corpus 83 73 81 73 / 10 40 60 30 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...LS/77