487
FXUS64 KCRP 021819
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1219 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1103 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Low to medium rain chances (30-60%) Wednesday through Friday,
  with greatest widespread chances on Thursday as a cold front
  pushes through

- Full moon and northeasterly flow stretches raises concern for
  potential minor coastal flooding later this week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1103 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

We will begin the period under the influence of a ridge that has
moved into place over the region. This will allow for calmer
conditions over the region. We will see chilly temperatures once
again tonight though with onshore flow returning to the region we
should see a slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow! Another cold
front will be expected on Thursday, though this one will not be as
strong as the last it will drop temps back into the 50s and 60s
Friday. Lows Thursday night and Friday night have about a medium
chance of dropping into the upper 30s once again. It`ll definitely
be worth monitoring as we progress later in the week.

Ahead of the front will be some lower rain chances across the
Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads with the due to isentropic
lift at the 295 level and passing shortwave passing through the
region. Showers and potentially some thunderstorms (mainly
offshore) will be possible as this cold front tracks into South
Texas combining with a coastal trough. This will bring above
normal moisture into the region and given the lift provided with
these features should support favorable rain chances across the
Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads and over the Gulf Waters.
As previously mentioned, the environment isn`t super conducive
for thunderstorms except for offshore and potentially along the
front as it track into the region.

Will continue to monitor the potential for minor coastal flooding
later this week. Signals are still remaining steady in P-ETSS with
tide levels reaching 1.8 MSL due to moderate to strong
northeasterly flow and swell periods around 6-7 seconds through
the weekend. These factors will combine with the expected full
moon which would enhance the possibility.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions will be expected across the region to begin the
period. Some lower level moisture is expected to move into the
region tomorrow morning allowing for overcast skies leading to
MVFR to IFR conditions with potentially LIFR conditions later.
Winds are expected to be relatively light across the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1103 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Winds have diminished to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4)
later this afternoon, shifting onshore Wednesday morning. Another
cold front is expected to push through Thursday morning, bringing
another wave of fresh to strong northeasterly flow in the wake
through Thursday night. This will likely warrant a Small Craft
Advisory. Winds weaken to gentle to moderate heading into the
weekend, with wind direction varying. Moderate rain chances
Wednesday will increase to medium to high, 60-90%, Thursday
through Friday. Low rain chances linger through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1103 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected through early next
week. Winds will remain light to moderate inland, predominately out
of the north to northeast. Minimum relative humidity may briefly
drop below 30% this afternoon over the Brush Country but winds will
be very light. Every afternoon into early next week is expected to
have minimum relative humidity above 30%. Low to medium rain chances
Wednesday through Friday, with greatest chances over the Coastal
Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Brief onshore flow returns Wednesday
before another cold front pushes through Thursday, then another
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    49  69  58  65 /   0  30  40  60
Victoria          42  67  51  59 /   0  40  60  60
Laredo            50  75  58  64 /   0   0  10  50
Alice             47  69  55  63 /   0  10  30  60
Rockport          53  72  58  65 /   0  40  60  70
Cotulla           45  70  52  58 /   0   0  20  50
Kingsville        48  71  57  67 /   0  20  30  60
Navy Corpus       55  72  62  68 /   0  40  50  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ231-232-236-237-
     250-255-270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...NP/92