759
FXUS61 KCTP 161506
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1006 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow bands lasting into
  Monday; snowy road conditions/hazardous travel possible in
  blowing/drifting snow
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday followed by a slightly milder
  trend through the middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid morning update.

Overall package in good shape, main thing was to add Clearfield
County to the advisory area. Main concern is impacts on this
early season event, especially later today and again come
commute time Monday morning.

Earlier discussion below.

All kinds of troubles to forecast today, wind and snow the major
ones. Previous wind advy should work our well with wind profiles
across the mdl spectrum showing 40+KT wind at the top of the
mixed layer or even lower (esp on the hill tops). The major
upgrade with this package was to fly some lake effect flags
across the NW five counties. Flow and thermal profiles, esp when
considering the lake-induced CAPEs/cloud depth, are highly
favorable for deep snow over at least Warren Co, and Elk and
McKean could eventually also have some 6+" obs accums over the
next 36 hrs. Chose to step into the WWAs for those 3 counties
with a short-fused watch. Will be re-evaluating constantly as
new data flows in, and may even change those to warnings or
advisories before the end of this shift.

Secondary front (the main wind shift, really) is passing thru
State College and dropping some rain out the window. Gusts along
and just behind this feature will near 40KT, but most of the
higher gusts should not occur until we can start mixing a little
during the daylight hrs.

The meso mdls paint a good, long dual-lake fetch band along the
long axis of LH and crossing LE. While this feature is expected
to start this morning, it will likely waggle N-S thru the next
30 hrs. Additional bands are also expected. Afternoon mixing
may break the band(s) into more-cellular SHSN. Some of these
bands could produce 1+"/hr rates as the top-half of the cloud
should be right in the sweet spot of the DGZ, and have the
omega/up-motion maximized near/below that zone. There could be
some thundersnow, too. While it won`t be like this all the time,
the possibility of these features lingering for several hours in
many locations has made it a bit easier to go watch. Model SLRs
of 15-17:1 are not all that impressive, those are likely an
average and not indicative of the potentially-maximized values
within the cross-hair signature on the profiles.

The wind is also going to add another layer of trouble to the
falling snow. The blowing snow will lower the visbys further and
the drifting snow will make it very difficult to keep the roads
clear. Have played that up in the watch and advy text.

Temps are almost an afterthought with all else to capture. NBM
guidance may be a little too mild in the NW with all the clouds
and precip. Temps may fall or only stay steady today, esp in the
NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Nightfall may not see much of a weakening to the band(s) as the
dual-lake fetch will still be happening. The possibility of the
super high rates with the tallest clouds does decrease without
daylight/heating. The subsidence inversion will wait until
closer to noon Monday to squash low enough to suppress the best
lake effect snow showers. Just how far into the CWA these bands
can go is always a big question. The length of the band is
usually longer when the fetch is long and the wind is not
chaotic downwind of the lakes. There is a long residence time
over the water for this event. The longest of the bands will
likely reach into the Central Mountains (UNV-IPT). The flow and
fetch is not esp favorable for the Laurels. But, upslope will
help them pick up an inch or so, mainly on the ridges.

Expect the temps to drop into the m20s in the NW and m30s in the
cities of the SE. The wind/gusts will slacken slightly for the
night, but still stay pretty high (sustained 10-20, gusts 30-40
MPH). That should allow the wind advy to die properly at
midnight. They don`t really drop any lower until later in the
aftn on Monday.

The inversion does drop thru the (Mon) morning, and should help
kill off the SHSN. But, I advise against thinking they will go
away until the end of the day since the flow will still be
favorable/similar direction. They`ll probably get shorter and
be sliding N/NE into NY state as they die off. Temps might get
mild enough in the day to perhaps melt a little of the snow as
breaks in between the bands allow for some sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Snow showers and gusty winds gradually taper off Monday night as
high pressure briefly builds into the region. Models show the
next system for early next week ejecting out of the central
Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact southern stream
shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward through the Ohio
Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensembles continue to show two
possible solutions for this system with around half of the
members keeping the bulk of the precip to our south, while the
other half shows a more northward track for this system. This
second solution would bring the potential for mixed precip to
the region.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip odds
trend higher into the end of next week. Most guidance shows this
system tracking to our west, which would result in an all rain
scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mild conditions with mainly VFR will persist the next few hours
across the Lower and Middle Susquehanna - that lies within a
narrowing warm sector early today. A few locations such as the
deeper valleys around KIPT will see some MVFR to IFR fog prior
to the wind picking up along and in the wake of the Cfropa that
will occur between 09-11Z Sunday.

The aforementioned cfront that extended from near KBGM to KUNV
and KJST at 07Z will continue to advance steadily east this
morning and will be accompanied by another brief shower or two.

In the wake of this front winds will pick up from the WNW and
gust into the 30s to low 40s (MPH) early on. as vertical mixing
increases and we accentuate the gradient wind with the
moderately strong isallobaric component later this morning
through the rest of today, peak gusts will likely exceed 40 kts
(46 mph) in many locations.

Ahead of the front, strong winds aloft and light winds at the
surface will bring low level wind shear at the Susq Valley
airfields through 08-10Z. MVFR conditions are likely as showers
move through everywhere except MDT and LNS.

As cooler and drier air moves in behind the front, conditions
will return to VFR at AOO, UNV, and IPT while JST and BFD
maintain restrictions.

Lake effect snow showers will develop as early as daybreak
Sunday across northwest PA and continue through much of the day.
IFR conditions are likely for some portion of the day on Sunday
at KBFD as snow showers will inevitably affect the airfield.
There remains some uncertainty with the duration of snow showers
and whether they`ll set up directly over the airfield or
oscillate to one side or other. In a worst case scenario, IFR or
LIFR visibility will prevail for much of the day, whereas a more
optimistic scenario would lead to longer periods with little or
no visibility restrictions.

Outlook...

Mon...SHSN NW. Continued Windy. VFR conditions SE. Elsewhere,
ocnly MVFR to IFR

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, otherwise dry.

Wed-Thu...Chance of a shower, but overall mainly dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ004-005-
010.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ006-011-
017.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin/Bauco
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Bauco
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff