593
FXUS61 KCTP 150725
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
225 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Rain and a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Saturday
  night; a strong/severe storm possible along/west of US-219
* Windy and colder with lake effect snow bands Sunday into
  Monday; changing road conditions/hazardous travel possible
* Light rain/snow possible Tuesday followed by a slightly milder
  trend through the middle of next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Low clouds have cleared across the north, but have not seen much
in the way of valley fog just yet. Some patchy fog may develop
as we head later into the night. Otherwise, stratus will
increase from SW to NE into the Laurels in the predawn within an
area of warm advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rain/showers spread southeast Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night ahead of cold front. Although smaller-scale
developments remain uncertain, latest model output offers little
change to prior runs concerning the large-scale pattern
evolution Saturday through Saturday night. There remains a low
end risk for a few stronger storms over western PA into the
Allegheny Front vicinity; SPC has maintained a MRGL risk SWO
that covers locations along and west of US-219.

Pattern turns blustery behind the cold front late Saturday
night through Sunday. Wind gusts 30-40+ mph are definitely in
the cards with potential for advisory criteria. The increasingly
strong west-northwest flow will develop across the Great Lakes
and open up the potential for lake effect/upslope snow into the
interior of CPA Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.
Specifically, a multi-lake connected snowband or bands is
trending more likely to probable based on the latest higher res
model guidance extending from Lake Superior/Huron across Erie
into northwest PA. Probabilities are at least 50/50 for advisory
level snow accum especially in more persistent NW flow
trajectory bands. There may also be an emerging signal for some
squalls or very long fetch bands perhaps extending as far
southeast as the I-81 corridor.

We were keen to message the multitude of potential hazardous
weather concerns over the weekend in ranked order of confidence
(high to low):

-strong (non-tstm) wind gusts >40mph
-lake effect snow accumulation north of I-80 & west of US-219
-heavy snow bands or squalls
-strong thunderstorm wind gusts >50 mph

With rain prior to the cold blustery winds and snow, treatment
on roads may be challenging.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Snow showers and gusty wind continue on Monday and gradually
taper off Monday night.

Models show the next system for early next week ejecting out of
the central Plains (NE/IA/KN/MO vicinity) as a flat/compact
southern stream shortwave and weak sfc low tracking eastward
through the Ohio Valley toward the DelmarVA. Ensemble data keeps
the bulk of precip and max POPs with this system along and
south of the MD line centered on next Tuesday. Any shifts in the
track or speed/timing could introduce some ptype issues on the
northern edge of the precip. That said, this system could also
skirt by far enough to the south and not bring any precip to
CPA.

High pressure edging southeast from the Great Lakes appears
deliver a dry period around midweek/Wednesday before precip
odds trend higher into the end of next week. This pattern setup
again favors a potential overrunning rain/mixed ptype scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High based stratocu and altocu are still present along an
elevated, albeit diffuse frontal boundary, across Scent and
Swrn PA early this morning, while a shield of
cirrus/cirrostratus was spreading SE from the Great Lakes
and covering much of the CWA at 07Z.

A strong, fast moving low will move down the Saint Lawrence
River Valley. Moisture will increase during the day today, with
a gusty wind developing.

Cigs will lower quickly through MVFR and into IFR range over
the Western Mtns late this morning and these low cigs (and some
periods of MVFR VSBYS in SHRA) will persist into tonight as a
potent cold front pushes east through the Commonwealth.

Cloud bases will gradually lower to MVFR across the Central Mtns
by late this morning (13-15Z) with a similar trend across the
Susq Valley this afternoon. VFR should prevail at LNS and MDT
until 22Z Sat-00Z Sun, followed by at least several hours of
MVFR CIGS.

A few light showers are possible in the morning and early
afternoon, but the majority of showers should hold off until the
late afternoon and evening along and within a few hours ahead
of the aforementioned cold front.

LLWS was included at all airfields for about a 4-5 hour period
prior to the cold frontal passage late this afternoon into this
evening, as a 45-55 kt WSWrly LLJ moves east across the state.

SFC winds will turn more gusty out of the northwest tonight and
Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Restrictions are likely at
BFD and JST, with impacts possible farther southeast in lake
effect snow bands that take aim at any airfield.

Outlook...

Sun...SHRA/SN esp NW half. IFR poss. Windy.

Mon...Isold/SCT SHSN NW. Windy.

Tue...SHRA/SN possible early, otherwise dry.

Wed...Mainly dry.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff