369
FXUS61 KCTP 220443
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1143 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mostly cloudy skies remain in place through Saturday morning
  with a period of light rain tonight
* A weak shortwave trough passing by to our north on Sunday will
  bring gusty winds and the potential for light rain or snow
  showers across the northern tier Sunday afternoon with
  flurries lingering Sunday evening
* Mild pattern with rain prior to Thanksgiving turns decidedly
  colder with wind and lake effect snow possible on Thanksgiving
  and continuing into Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Two fairly weak upper-level short wave troughs in the Northern
and Southern streams will move across the NE US and Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachians tonight. The southern stream wave
will have the greatest impact on our CWA precip-wise with a period
of weak to moderate uvvel linked to the left exit region of an
upper level jet. Rainfall amounts will range from up to 0.10
inch in the northern tier to 0.25 to locally 0.50 inch from I-80
southward.

Later tonight, cooler and drier air will begin to pour into
northern PA in the wake of a cold front. Some pockets of mixed
precip may be possible on the northern edge of the precip by
early Saturday morning north of US-6, but no winter weather
impacts are expected. Lows Saturday morning will be near
freezing in northwest PA while clouds/rain keep temperatures in
the mid 40s along and south of I-76.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A somewhat zonal pattern will settle in for the weekend with
the southern branch of the jet stream extending from northern
Mexico ENE across the Gulf Coast States as a slow moving Upper
Low drifts across northern Baja California. Several pieces of
energy diving SE from NW Canada, combined with a potent upper
level trough crashing into the Wash/Oregon Coast, will amplify
the flow across N American and the mean trough over the NE U.S.
Saturday night into early next week.

In our neck of the woods, surface ridging will support a drying
trend later in the day Saturday with breaks of sunshine
developing. The clearing will support lows in the 20s by Sunday
morning. An upper level trough pivoting through the Great Lakes
may deliver some rain/snow showers to the northern tier on
Sunday. We`ll also see westerly winds gust 25-35 mph late Sunday
as winds at the top of a well mixed BL increase to near 45 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much more sunshine is expected Monday as sprawling high pressure
moves overhead. A period of rain appears likely Tuesday and
Wednesday in a warm advection regime ahead of a deepening low
moving up towards the Great Lakes. Temps will peak in the 50s on
Wednesday. Colder air wrapping around the system could produce
some lake effect snow in the northwest mountains starting on
Thanksgiving day, with some potential for more widespread snow
showers making their way down to Interstate 80 on Friday. Wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible both Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR to IFR conditions expected to prevail through current TAF
period. Rain spreads across the southern 3/4 of the airspace
between 02-05Z; KBFD is likely just a bit far north to get wet.
However a prob30 has been added due to current radar trends. Rain
ends from NW to SE between 10-15Z with a drier flow from
300-330 degrees signaling a return to MVFR and VFR conditions by
Saturday afternoon as clouds lift and scatter out.

Outlook...

Sat...Improvement to VFR at most terminals. Fog may return
Saturday night.

Sun...Breezy with rain/snow showers possible northern tier.

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, possibly turning to snow showers
in the NW after dark.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Bowen