977
FXUS61 KCTP 281132
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
632 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Lake effect snow will result in significant holiday travel
  disruptions across northwest Pennsylvania today while scattered
  snow showers and a few squalls will impact the weather across
  the Central Mtns, Laurel Highlands and possibly the Middle
  Susquehanna Valley.
* A few periods of snow (Northern PA) and snow/or a wintry mix
  (Southern PA) are expected late Saturday Night and Sunday
* A more significant/widespread winter storm is possible Tuesday
  and Tuesday night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A prevailing upper trough across the eastern US will continue to
bring well below normal temperatures and unsettled weather to
the Commonwealth for Black Friday. 850mb temps around -10C will
continue to support lake effect snow bands as steering winds
veer to come out of the northwest. From this direction, snow
bands will pick up moisture from Lakes Superior, Huron, and Erie
before dumping snow in northwest and Central PA. Lake Effect
Snow Warnings remain in effect for Warren, McKean, and Potter
Counties with adjacent Winter Weather Advisories.

During the day today, a strong low pressure system centered in
Central Quebec will drag a surface cold front through the
northeast, helping invigorate ongoing lake effect snow showers
and sustain them perhaps all the way to the I-80/I-99 corridor.
Sufficient instability (50-100J/kg) could support snow squalls
late this morning and this afternoon. Snow Squall Warnings may
be needed along I-80, especially if there are breaks in the
clouds (warmer road temperatures) and snow bands remain coherent
down to I-80. These bands should waggle slowly east and northward
through the day. That should improve conditions over the
Laurels in the early aftn, and central mtns late in the day or
at least by midnight. Unlike previous events this month, it
seems the heaviest/most persistent bands should remain north of
I-80, helping mitigate significant/long duration travel impacts
there.

High pressure and upper level ridging will gradually move
in from the southwest today and tonight. A lingering pressure
gradient will support gusty winds again today, though gusts
above Advisory criteria are less likely than they were the last
two days). Snow showers will weaken in intensity and decrease in
coverage later this evening and overnight as ridging builds. The
flow doesn`t look like it should quite take things all the way
N of the CWA until well after midnight/closer to sunrise on
Saturday. Thinning clouds and lighter winds means Saturday
morning will be colder (by temperature) than Friday morning, but
the wind chill will be comparably brisk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday should be a chilly albeit tranquil day with high
pressure briefly in control. Morning sunshine will give way to
increasing high clouds with light winds. If you haven`t put out
your holiday decorations yet, Saturday looks like a better day
than Sunday to get that done with highs in the 30s to low 40s
and no rain/snow.

By Sunday, another low pressure system will move into the Great
Lakes, bringing a wintry mix of precipitation to the
Commonwealth. This system looks rather unimpressive from a
forcing and moisture availability standpoint. With the low
likely tracking through Michigan, the best forcing should remain
well north of PA and we`ll see scattered showers Sunday and
Sunday night. Thermal profiles appear to be cold enough to
initially support snow, then perhaps mixing with or changing to
rain for the last day of November. Temperatures moderate
somewhat, ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled weather will continue into early next week as cold
air in the middle of the country sets up a strong baroclinic
zone over the eastern US. High pressure in the Plains should
keep cold air in place on the northern side of the precipitation
shield from a wave of low pressure progged to move out of the
Gulf of America on Monday. This system should move northeast
around the base of the aforementioned high pressure system,
bringing increasing moisture to the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday into
Wednesday next week. Although it is still too early to pin down
details of timing, intensity, and precipitation type
delineation, the first widespread plowable snowfall of the
season is possible.

The chance for significant (6"+) snowfall amounts appears
limited at this time due the lack of a strong high pressure
center that would help slow the northeastward movement of the
center of low pressure. A relatively quick-moving system could
still bring accumulating snow across a wide footprint, but
high-end amounts would be lower. GEFS and ECENS probabilities
of 6"+ have generally been below 15% over the last several runs. The
track of the low pressure center will also be important for
determining the exact location of the rain/snow transition line. Continue
to monitor the forecast in the days ahead, especially if you
have plans to travel.

High pressure will regain control of our weather in the wake of
the aforementioned system for the middle to end of next week.
Prevailing upper troughing brings high confidence in continued
below normal temperatures and a chilly start to December.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Wind flow taking on a more northwesterly direction today. This
will allow lake effect SHSN to pepper KBFD through 29/00Z.
Flight categories will waffle between IFR and MVFR as the snow
bands shift.

Elsewhere, -SHSN will sporadically occur from central PA and
points west...KJST and KAOO, and to a lesser extent...KUNV. Do
not expect an appreciable drop in category as MVFR will persist
with a stratus overcast.

Northwest winds will continue to gust 25 to 30KTS through the
day with occasional wind shear commensurate with those gusts.

Winds will diminish after 29/04Z. A brief break in the adverse
weather on Saturday, before more snow and rain on Sunday and
again on Tuesday, as the weather pattern favors fast moving
weather systems.

Outlook...

Sat...Improving conds; diminishing winds with lingering snow
showers ending.

Sun...Light rain/wintry mix developing from west to east;
restrictions possible. Precip may turn to rain across the south
during the day.

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely early on. MVFR likely. IFR
poss.

Tue...More snow possible, before a possible mix later in the
day across the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for
PAZ004>006.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ010-011-
037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Banghoff
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Tyburski