159
FXUS61 KCTP 241934
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
234 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Trending milder with periods of rain Tuesday and Wednesday
* Becoming windy and much colder Wednesday night through Friday
* Lake effect snow may result in significant Thanksgiving
  holiday travel disruptions across northwest Pennsylvania

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fair and tranquil late afternoon and evening with good holiday
travel conditions across CPA. Visible sat trends indicate high
to mid level cloud cover will continue to increase from west to
east through tonight with lows in the 30-40F range; highest on
the southwest ridgetops where a SSEly breeze will remain active.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surge of low level warm/moisture advection via 30-40kt SSWly
850mb LLJ will spread rain across CPA Tuesday morning. Periods
of moderate intensity rainfall are possible through Tuesday
afternoon and could slow holiday travel. Steadier rain tapers to
intermittent light rain/showers or drizzle Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as milder air continues to percolate into the
area. Tuesday night will be very mild relative to climo with min
temps +15-20F above normal. 24hr rainfall amounts are in the
0.25 to 0.50" range ending 12Z Wed. Slightly above normal PW
values suggests some locally higher rain amounts are possible
in the 0.75-1" range.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The mild trend peaks midweek with the warmest max temps
Wednesday in the 55-65F range or 10 to 20 degrees above the
historical average for late November. Rain coverage on Wed
continues to look more limited/sparse and likely confined right
along/ahead the cold front sweeping eastward through CPA during
the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions turn breezy by
Wednesday afternoon with gusty winds continuing to ramp up
Wednesday night - directing much colder air into the area
sending temperatures plummeting Wednesday night through
Thanksgiving Day. Daytime max/overnight min temp deltas on
Wednesday/Wednesday night are about 30 degrees give or take with
gusty wind adding to the sharp temperature plunge.

Blustery post-frontal flow is expected through late week with
peak gusts 35-45 mph range Thursday and Friday. A wind advisory
may be needed in the coming days and will continue to highlight
this risk in the HWO. Wind chills Thanksgiving morning are fcst
in the low teens to mid 20s and will be even colder in the
+single digits and upper teens for Black Friday morning
shoppers.

The low level wind flow trajectory will shift from WSW to WNW
Wednesday night through Friday - triggering lake effect snow
downwind of Lake Erie. Several inches of snow accumulation and
significant travel disruptions are possible - particularly
across the NW snowbelts. A winter storm watch for heavy lake
effect snow (6" or more) was issued for Warren and McKean
counties where confidence in warning criteria snow is 50-80% per
WPC WSO (in collaboration with CLE and BUF). The combination of
heavy snow and blustery winds could also result in blowing and
drifting snow impacts.

Some heavier snow showers/squalls are possible farther inland
reaching Interstates 80/99 on Friday as the flow aligns from
the WNW. Some localized hazardous travel conditions are
possible in sudden bursts of snow causing quick reductions in
visibility and snow accumulation on roadways.

The Lake effect snow pattern should end Friday night thanks to
backing llvl flow and 1030mb high pressure sliding eastward from
the Ohio Valley. Gusty winds should also relax by Saturday
morning. A short break or lull in precip is most likely
Saturday/Saturday night based on the NBM and GFS/EC AI models.

There is still some uncertainty with speed/timing, but overall
guidance agrees in returning precip to the area on Sunday.
Thermal profiles appear to be cold enough to initially support
a mixed ptype transitioning to rain for the last day of November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR continues through tonight before the next system arrives on
Tue bringing thickening/lowering clouds and eventually MVFR to
IFR restrictions as rain overspreads the airspace. Low-end LLWS
thresholds may be met late tonight into Tuesday morning, but
given marginal speeds and lower confidence we did not include
in the 24/18Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain; MVFR trending IFR Tue night.

Wed...Breezy with intermittent rain showers; becoming windy
with sharp CFROPA Wed night with gusts >30kt from 240-270 deg.

Thu-Fri...Windy with gusts 30-35kt from 270-300 degrees.
Frequent snow showers over the NW 1/2 of the airspace.

Sat...Improving conditions/lighter winds with snow showers
ending downwind of Lake Erie.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Friday
evening for PAZ004-005.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl