800
FXUS61 KCTP 241118
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
618 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Sun followed by increasing high clouds today with light wind
* Trending milder with periods of rain Tuesday and Wednesday
* Becoming windy beginning Wednesday night and turning much
  colder with lake effect snow Thanksgiving Day through Black
  Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Shallow and warm lake effect stratocu clouds extended from the
North-Central Mtns of PA SE to the North Branch Susq Valley,
which was helping to keep temps relatively warmer and in the
upper 30s to low 40s, while clear skies and light wind elsewhere
allowed temps to cool to between 25-30F in some locations from
the NW Mtns to the Middle Susq Valley near KSEG.

Nice travel conditions today with abundant morning sunshine
followed by an increase in high clouds from the west this
afternoon and tonight. A ridge of high pressure slides east
from the Ohio Valley and crests over the Commonwealth during
the midday and afternoon hours today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Cloud cover will be overcast tonight and bases will gradually
lower through the mid cloud range overnight, keeping min temps
mainly in the 30s. Wind will continue to be light in most
places, though the slight increase in the llvl p-gradient across
the Western Mtns could result in a 10-15 kt breeze developing
on the ridge tops there.

Light rain or mixed precip could reach the southwest mtns as
early as 12Z Tuesday, although the probability is low at this
time. Latest model runs suggest that wet bulb temps will only
dip as low as +1-2 C across the NW Mtns early Tuesday morning as
the leading edge of stratiform precip moves in, so there is
higher confidence in the PTYPE being plain rain rather than a
mix at, and shortly after the onset.

Overcast skies and periods of rain/showers for Tuesday with
temps anywhere from several, to as much as 10F above normal with
the greatest departures occurring across the Laurel Highlands
in SW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cloudy with a few round of showers and/or areas of drizzle for
Tuesday night. Low temps will range through the 40s.

The mild trend continues through midweek with max temps peaking
on Wednesday in the 50-60F range. Temp departures Tuesday night
and Wed will average 14-18F above normal for late November.

Periods of rain are expected to move over the area Tuesday and
Wednesday which could slow holiday travel. Overall NBM has
0.25-0.50 inch of rain in the Tue-Wed period, but it is worth
noting that the NBM 75th pctl has as much as 0.50 inch of rain
falling in just a 6 hour period from 1-7 PM Tuesday across
potions of south central PA. Rain on Wednesday will likely be
less widespread and more confined to the cold FROPA.

Conditions turn breezy by Wednesday afternoon ahead of a well-
defined cold front poised to plow through PA Wednesday night.

Blustery post-frontal flow with gusts 30-40 mph Thursday and
Friday is expected to deliver much colder temperatures for
Thanksgiving Day. 40 KT wind contour occupies the upper 1/3 to
1/2 of the well-mixed layer as the cold air deepens Thursday
into Friday (and will be as low as ~1000 FT AGL Thursday night).
This will create a likelihood of Wind Advisory criteria
developing for much of the Region Thursday into Friday.

This pattern shift to cold/blustery WSW to WNW flow will
trigger lake effect snow - initially targeting the LE shoreline
into SW NY early Thursday before before pivoting into the NW PA
snowbelts Thursday night into Friday. Several inches of snow
accumulation and significant travel disruptions are possible
Thu-Sat across the NW mtns. We added the potential wind and lake
effect snow hazards to the HWO which will likely become key
messages heading into peak Thanksgiving holiday travel and Black
Friday. Some heavier snow showers are possible all the way down
to Interstate 80 on Friday.

Models diverge over the weekend but general idea is a break in
the lake effect snow Saturday, followed by warm advection into
Sunday/Monday with potential for a deep, slow moving storm
system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the TAF period as
high pressure builds in. There could be some brief fog in a few
valleys of northern/central PA early, but restrictions appear
unlikely at this time.

VFR continues through tonight before next system arrives on Tue
bringing thickening/lowering clouds and eventually restrictions
to the NW half as rain overspreads the state with winds turning
around to the S/SE.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow
after sunset.

Thu-Fri...Breezy with SHSN for northwest PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Colbert
LONG TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bowen/RXR