020
FXUS61 KCTP 060848
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
348 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mostly cloudy and not as cold to start the 1st weekend of
  December
* Periods of light snow over the western and northern
  Alleghenies this weekend; minor accumulation expected Sunday
* Cold weather pattern with clippers cascading east of the
  Rockies provides more opportunities for snow next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Areas of -ZL remain possible across the Laurel Highlands early
this morning; SPS valid until 12Z/7AM. Sfc obs/RWIS data suggest
coverage will remain limited, but still can`t rule out a few
icy spots.

Cloudy and much warmer overnight period with daybreak readings
15 to 25 degrees warmer across the northwest 1/2 of the CWA.
The not as cold trend translates through the afternoon with fcst
highs in the 30-40F range or +10-15 degrees higher than
yesterday.

Modest lift along and ahead of weak front tied to sfc low over
Hudson Bay...followed by a short window of marginally favorable
WNWly cross-lake wind will result in light, lake/terrain
enhanced snow/snow showers spilling southeast/downwind of Lake
Erie across the NW mtns along the Allegheny Front into the
Laurel Highlands later this afternoon into the early evening.
Little to no accumulation is expected. Light snow will
reposition along the lakeshore and come to an end in the NW mtns
early tonight as the low level wind trajectory backs to the
WSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Split/northern stream trough swings through on Sunday and
brings another period of snow primarily to the NW Alleghenies
during the late afternoon into the first part of Sunday night.
Snowfall amounts from NBM, WPC and RRFS have all trended a bit
lower in the 1-2" range over Warren/McKean and C-1" elsewhere
along the Allegheny Front. Don`t expect much more than a few
flurries or spotty fzdz into late Sunday night followed by
gradual clearing into early Monday morning behind increasing
large scale subsidence and much drier air poised to accompany
modified arctic high pressure eastward from the Midwest.

1030mb high migrating over CPA will ensure dry and cold wx on
Monday. Daytime highs are fcst to stay below the freezing mark.
Monday night looks bitter cold to frigid with lows in the
single digits to low teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure shifts east of the I95 corridor by Tuesday
afternoon as another northern/split stream trough traverses the
Great Lakes. This feature looks to brush the northern tier with
another light snowfall.

The large scale upper flow will become more amplified for the
middle to late week period with a persistent trough in the east
and ridging over the Rockies and Western States.

Several clippers cascading eastward from the Rockies will
provide more opportunities for winter wx (mainly snow) from
Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR or lower ceilings are expected at all airfields through the
rest of the night, with BFD and JST having the best chance of
seeing IFR ceilings. Patchy freezing drizzle will remain
possible across west-central PA as the clouds thicken.
Southwesterly flow develops after sunrise ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough and ceilings will rise through the
morning. VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon at all
TAF sites except BFD.

Ceilings gradually lower to MVFR once again west of UNV during
the afternoon as the shortwave wave moves through the region.
A few upslope snow showers could impact JST during the evening
as flow becomes more west-northwesterly. Scattered lake effect
snow showers will also develop off of Lake Erie and could
approach BFD Saturday night, though most of the high resolution
guidance keeps most of the snow to the north and west. VFR
conditions will continue farther to the east.


Outlook...
Sun...A compact but more amplified upper level trough with a
preceding low level south to southwesterly wind max will likely
bring a 4 to 6 hour period of mainly light snow with IFR vsbys
and MVFR to IFR CIGS (targeting mainly central and northern PA)
late Sunday/Sunday night.

Mon...Mainly VFR

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible with snow, especially across the
northern half of Pennsylvania, as multiple low pressure systems
pass over or just north of the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
* Record low temperature of -8 degrees was set at Bradford on 12/5.
  The previous record was 0 degrees set in 2007.

* Record low temperature of 12 degrees was set at Altoona on 12/5.
  The previous record was 13 degrees set in 1966.

* Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday,
  December 21st

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl