953
FXUS61 KCTP 191928
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
228 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
*Mainly cloudy conditions into Thursday
*Occasional rain Friday and Friday night precedes a dry and
seasonably mild back half/end to the weekend
*Mild weather continues early next week before a significant
 pattern shift toward colder conditions around Thanksgiving

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid afternoon update.

Lots of sun along the NY border at the current time, but low
clouds and a hazy fog across much of the rest of the area. No
good way to move it out very fast. Forecast low temperatures
tonight based on having some clouds around the area. Still some
snow on top of the local mountains nearby, but most of the area
is back to green grass, and with the drier air to the north,
the snow will not really add to the chill tonight.

Still expect some sun on Thurday, but days are short now.
Given the clouds to start the day off, mid and high clouds
will not be far off, so high temperatures will be similar to
what we have today. Still a shade below normal. Some models
have a bit of shower activity edging into the Laurel Highlands
by early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As noted the last few days, the fast northern jet will push
a cold front across the area rather quickly on Friday, with
limited shower activity.

The southern stream looks like it will not phase with the
northern branch, so the area of showers and rain should
be moving out by sunrise on Saturday. Heaviet amounts could
be across the far southeast, as a wave trys to form on the
front. Temperatures across the northwest cool to around 32
by 12Z Saturday, but that depends on skies clearing at this
point to allow for cooling to take place.

Some new 12Z guidance (EC for example) hint that our area
might get little if any rain on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Trends for the weekend support a mainly dry period, with
temperatures typical for mid to late November.

Another fast moving frontal system by Tuesday, before a
a bit milder for a brief time, then a possible chill. A very
active and fast flow pattern supports the colder air over the
north central states edging eastward toward Thanksgiving. Also
have to watch for any lows that form near the southeast coast.
The main issue will be like on 11/10, where the cold air could
make it to nortern FL again. Lake effect for our area will
depend on the directional shear. Too early to pinpoint that
type of detail. The main issue will be another round of cold
and windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak sfc ridging and light winds in the lowest several KFT AGL
will allow low clouds (IFR to LIFR) and IFR-MVFR vsbys to
linger across the southern half of the airspace this afternoon
while a sharp change to mainly VFR occurs across the northern
mtns/BFD.

Some gradual improvement in flying conditions will develop
farther south of Interstate 80 this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR across the
northern half of PA, but some lingering restrictions likely
across the southern PA airfields (KJST/KAOO/KMDT and KLNS) due
to lower clouds as temps cool off this evening.

Friday through early Saturday...Rain and associated
restrictions likely.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner