281
FXUS61 KCTP 030109
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
809 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Clouds break southeast; otherwise lingering flurries and
  pockets of freezing drizzle in the Laurel Highlands
* Arctic cold front delivers snow showers/squalls? Wednesday
  night into Thursday and frigid temperatures Thursday night
* Winter pattern continues over the weekend and into next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The first widespread snowfall event of the season has ended with
much of CPA picking up 2-4/3-5 inches. Rain/sleet/ice mix cut
amounts to an inch or less across the far southeast portion of
the Lower Susquehanna Valley. See latest LSR/PNS snow reports.

Rather cloudy with flurries into the evening and early tonight
before downslope flow trends sky cover to partly cloudy to the
east of the Alleghenies. More persistent and relatively moist
upslope flow/orographic lift will keep light snow and areas of
freezing drizzle over the Laurel Highlands -- and we extended
the winter wx advisory until 10PM with collab from LWX and PBZ.

Slushy areas and standing water from melting snow may result in
slick spots/black ice tonight into Wednesday morning with lows
in the teens and 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc ridging on Wednesday yields to arctic cold front plowing
southeast across the Lower Great Lakes through CPA Thursday.
Light snow/snow showers should accompany the front over the
western and northern Alleghenies and could spill into the
central ridge and valley region. SNSQ risk parameter and model
trends have ticked lower this cycle, but still can`t rule them
out. Fcst snow amounts are light (1" or less) and largely
confined to the western high terrain, but some travel impacts
are possible as far east as US220/I99 corridor.

Temps will plunge behind the front as brisk NW flow sends
readings falling NW->SE by Thursday afternoon; lows plummet
into the frigid range (single digits and low teens) Thursday
night and Friday morning with subzero wind chills over the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold end to the week with fcst highs below the freezing mark in
most of the CWA.

Low track remains uncertain for Friday with the potential for
snow to brush the southern tier of CPA. Otherwise, model trends
favor ocnl snow showers downwind of Lake Erie over the weekend
and possible clipper system during the first part of next week.

Temperatures will remain below the historical average for early
December.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the coastal low now departing New England, NW flow will
continue to bring IFR or low end MVFR cigs across central PA.
Improvements to VFR are expected to occur first at MDT and LNS (by
06z Wed), given subsidence in that area. Very light snow or
light freezing drizzle remains possible in upslope areas of the
Laurel Highlands and NW Mtns and will prevail through the first
half of tonight. Winds will shift around from NW to SW by Wed
morning.

Ceilings and vsbys in the Central Mtns and Susq Valley will
slowly improve to mainly VFR from south to north between the
predawn hours and afternoon Wed. Restrictions are likely to
linger for much of the day in the Laurels and possibly all the
way through Wed night in the NW mountains.

Outlook...

Thu...Cold FROPA, snow showers esp north, gusty west winds

Fri...Cold start to the day with temps 0-15F. Slight chance of
snow across the southern half of central PA with restrictions
possible.

Sat-Sun...Restrictions possible, chance of snow showers in the
NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert