770
FXUS61 KCTP 270438
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1138 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Lake effect snow may result in significant Thanksgiving
  holiday travel disruptions across northwest Pennsylvania
* Scattered snow showers and a few squalls will impact the
  weather across the Central Mtns, Laurel Highlands and possibly
  the Middle Susquehanna Valley Thursday into Friday
* Gusty winds and much colder temperatures to end the week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Gusty/brisk westerly winds will continue tonight, frequently reaching
30-40 mph. The Laurel Highlands will see stronger gusts, nearing
45 mph on ridges as the pressure gradient remains tight. Other
locations will have gusts into the 20s and lower 30s tonight and
Thursday.

Lake effect snow will be the primary concern across northwest
PA. Snow showers farther south and east across the Alleghenies
should become more confined to northwest sections of the state
as low pressure moves northeast across Quebec. No changes to
the headlines/WWAs are being made, either for the wind or snow.
Initial wind flow will be taking almost all of the lake effect
bands/moisture into western NY, but they won`t keep it all, as
a gradual veering will drop the bands slightly to the south
(into a more W-E alignment). However, these should only nip
Warren County thru sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ongoing forecast for snow amounts and timing remains well on
track. The slowly veering wind across the Great Lakes will drop
the LES bands even more into the CWA, hitting BFD close to
sunrise or at least by mid-morning. The bands will then waggle
throughout the next 36 hrs, but fetch will keep the heaviest
accums over the normal snow belt of Warren county and NWrn
McKean county. Deep moisture coming off LM grabs more moisture
from wrn LE and slides it into the next tier of counties south
(Elk, Cameron). The next worry would be if a long band from LH
eventually meets up with LE water and develops at least one
longer band that could extend deep into the CWA. At this point,
most models keep the large Huron- connected band to the N of UNV
through Friday sunrise.

The big take-away: Snow for PA will be most-widespread and
heaviest on Thursday night and Friday AM.

The positions and strength of snow bands on Friday (at that
range any storm, really) are difficult to nail down. There is
some disagreement on just how fast/completely the wind will
back/turn to the west and southwest and make the snow go away.
Current forecast of lower PoPs on Friday aftn is reasonable, but
we may need to delay the exit/ending of the snow for 6+ hrs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The lake effect snow pattern comes to an end Saturday morning
as low-level flow backs and high pressure begins to build in,
resulting in a lowering subsidence inversion. There is still
some uncertainty with speed/timing, but overall guidance agrees
in bringing another round of precipitation for the area on
Sunday. Thermal profiles appear to be cold enough to initially
support snow, then perhaps mixing with or changing to rain for
the last day of November. Unsettled weather will continue into
early next week as cold air in the middle of the country sets up
a strong baroclinic zone over the eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main issue for the area overall into Friday will be gusty
winds.

Snow showers, some heavy, will be possible at times overnight
into Friday at BFD.

Some snow showers could start to work into JST toward late
Thursday afternoon, as winds shift more to the northwest
late in the day and continue into Friday.

Flurries and possible snow showers most likely will hold
off at UNV and AOO until after 00Z Friday. Less likely
to the east at IPT, but still some chance at IPT Friday.

MDT and LNS not likely to see snow showers.

Conditions will improve by Saturday, but a storm tracking
north and west of central PA on Sunday will bring a chance
of some snow and rain.Track to the west supports some rain.
Most of this would taper off by Monday.

Models show some chance for more snow and rain on Tue.

Outlook...

Fri...Windy with gusts 30-35kt from 270-300 degrees; frequent
snow showers/squalls across the NW 1/2 of the airspace.

Sat...Improving conds; diminishing winds with lingering snow
showers ending.

Sun...Light rain/wintry mix developing from west to east;
restrictions possible. Precip may turn to rain across the south
during the day.

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely. MVFR likely. IFR poss.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ004-
005.
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST
Saturday for PAZ006-010-011.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for PAZ017-024-025-033-
034.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guseman/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Guseman/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Guseman/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Gartner/Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Martin