201
FXUS65 KCYS 100602
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1100 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and quiet weather expected for much of next
  week. Locally strong winds expected for the southeast Wyoming
  wind prone areas late Monday and into Tuesday.

- Warming trend Monday through Wednesday with high temperatures
  returning to the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

Upper-level ridging will build over the Rockies on Monday with the
ridge axis expected to traverse the CWA during the afternoon hours.
This will usher in much warmer and drier air aloft, with 700 mb
temperatures expected to reach +10C! These temperatures will be in
the 97.5th percentile for NAEFS climatology, signaling a mild day
for those at the surface. High temperatures will be in the 50s and
60s across the forecast area which is about 10 to 15 degrees above
average for mid-November. Other than bring mild temperatures, the
ridge will be accompanied by dry weather with no chance for
precipitation. Wind will gradually strengthen throughout the
day due to an approaching upper-level disturbance, leading to a
breezy afternoon.

MSLP gradients will rapidly tighten Monday evening as the
disturbance approaches. In response, winds aloft over the usual
southeast Wyoming wind prones will strengthen up to about 55 kts
Monday night. Subsidence will also peak during this time, helping
these stronger winds down to the surface. A quick look at both 850
and 700 mb CAG to CPR height gradients shows the potential for high
winds with values that typically can lead to marginal/low end high
winds. A cross section of the omega field and potential temperature
over the South Laramie Range also shows a strong mountain wave
signal which is a good indicator of high winds. In-house
guidance has consistently shown about a 60 percent chance for
high winds in the usual wind prones for this event, so went
ahead and upgraded the High Wind Watches to Warnings due to
increased confidence. Wind gusts up to 70 MPH will be possible.

As the upper-level disturbance passes through the CWA on Tuesday,
high winds will begin to ease. A "cool" front associated with the
disturbance will turn winds a bit more northwesterly and relax MSLP
gradients. High winds will likely be done by the early afternoon
hours, but expect breezy conditions to continue into Tuesday
evening. For the most part, the region will still be under the
influence of ridge, so continued dry conditions are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

All high wind warnings will have surpassed as winds wind down
through Tuesday afternoon. Thereafter, a stretch of pleasant weather
is in store as ridging builds back into the region with no
precipitation chances through Thursday. Expect highs to climb into
the upper 50s to upper 60s, warmest across eastern Wyoming and the
Nebraska Panhandle. While lows dip into the low 30s to low 40s, with
the colder lows west of I-25.

Lets shift the focus to the tail end of the week and into the
weekend, changes are in store. Guidance is indicating troughing
progressing east across the Intermountain West into our neck of the
woods by Friday afternoon. However, model spread increases as the
upper level trough moves closer with the GFS being a bit more
progressive while the EC is not as robust and has cut-off low over
the Southwest by Saturday. While GEFS has a range of possibilities
in the placement. So, with divergent solutions with current runs of
in-hopuse guidance, we expect solutions to differ over the next
several runs. Overall, confidence is high that a deep trough will
impact the region, but its evolution remains uncertain. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

Mid to upper level flow will become more westerly early this week as
an upper level ridge moves east into the Front Range. Dry weather is
expected to continue.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail with BKN-OVC mid
to high clouds above 10000 feet AGL. Westerly winds will increase
after 17z Monday for mainly the southeast Wyoming terminals. Gusts
around 30 knots possible in the afternoon.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WY...High Wind Warning from 8 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday for
     WYZ106-116-117.
     High Wind Warning from 5 PM Monday to 2 PM MST Tuesday for
     WYZ110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...TJT