Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FXUS65 KCYS 302340
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
540 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Narrow band of showers progressing east across the Panhandle now
in association with a weak upper impulse lifting northeast over
the high plains. Elsewhere more isolated activity occurring.
Expect all this to continue this afternoon then dissipate this
evening with loss of heating and departure of the impulse.

Continued quite mild across the CWA Saturday under an upper ridge
axis situated over the high plains/central Rockys. A few showers
could pop up over se Wy close to the Colorado border in the
afternoon otherwise a mainly dry day expected. Max temps around
80 over the Panhandle. Little change on Sunday but the upper ridge
will shift east and leave swly flow aloft across the CWA. Next
impulse to affect the area will approach late in the day and may
bring some showers particularly Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Monday...Potent trough aloft moves from eastern Nevada in the
morning, to western Wyoming by evening with surface low pressure
deepening across eastern Wyoming and a strong cold front plowing
eastward across much of Wyoming, except the southeast in the
afternoon. Enough low and mid level moisture, combined with
diffluence aloft and frontal lift to produce isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across most of our
counties except the far southeast. One more mild weather day as most
locales will be in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold
front.

Tuesday...The potent trough aloft moves eastward across Wyoming and
to western South Dakota by evening with the strong Pacific cold
frontal passage early in the day. Strength of the system and cold
air advection suggests possible high wind criteria winds, especially
early in the day, and especially over typical wind prone locations
such as Arlington, Vedauwoo and Buford.

Isolated to scattered showers expected due to orographics and with
cyclonic spin aloft, though showers east of I-25 will be limited by
strong low level downslope winds. Much cooler with thickness and 700
mb temperature falls.

Wednesday...The upper trough moves to central North Dakota with deep
unidirectional northwest flow over our counties, producing a windy
day. Isolated showers in the cyclonic flow aloft. Continued cool
with 700 mb temperatures near -2 Celsius.

Thursday...Drying out day with fast northwest flow aloft overhead
and decreasing low and mid level moisture. Warming trend with slowly
rising 1000-500 mb thicknesses and 700 mb temperatures near -2
Celsius with less cloud cover.

Friday...Low amplitude ridging overhead will continue the dry
weather with a warming trend as the airmass moderates with 700 mb
temperatures rising to near 6 Celsius.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 534 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Latest radar loop was showing a band of light showers continuing
to push through the eastern Nebraska panhandle. These showers
will continue to affect the KCDR...KAIA and KSNY taf sites during
the next hour or so. There is also a shower around KCYS. All of
this activity should dissipate after sunset with only a few
isolated showers possible tomorrow afternoon along the CO/WY
border.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Fire weather concerns will remain low for the foreseeable future
with generally non-critical conditions. Temperatures will remain
mild through the weekend with mainly isolated showers and a few
storms through Saturday. Much cooler and breezy conditions will
arrive by the middle of next week.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...RE



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