664
FNUS28 KWNS 142135
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Discussion...
Behind a cold frontal passage into the weekend, drier downslope
conditions will spread across portions of the Mid-Atlantic in the
lee of the Appalachians on D3/Sunday. However, low-cloud cover and
potential light rainfall before could mitigate fire weather
concerns.

Across the west, a mid-level low across southern California will
shift northeastward, evolving into more an open wave before reaching
the Central Plains. A surface trough/low in response to a mid-level
jet moving over the Central Rockies could bring expanding fire
weather concerns back into portions of the Southern Plains on
D4/Monday. A deeper mid/upper trough develops over the West as
midweek approaches. This will bring rainfall across the Southern
Plains later next week, hopefully improving status of fuels and
lowering fire weather concerns.

...D4/Monday...
Dry/breezy conditions will be likely with the deepening surface low
across the Central Plains on D4/Monday. Relative humidity reductions
to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained west southwesterly winds
10-15 mph. A 40% critical probability was maintained across portions
of the TX Panhandle and southwest OK, where these conditions align
with increasingly dry and cured fuels.

...D5-8/Tuesday-Friday...
A deep mid/upper-level trough emerges across the West by midweek
offering a better potential for precipitation across the central and
southern Plains, which should largely mitigate fire weather concerns
later next week. There will be some potential for Some Elevated fire
weather concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into western
Texas where less rainfall may occur. Confidence remains low and this
potential will be monitored in the coming days.

..Thornton.. 11/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$