684
FXUS63 KDDC 221603
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1003 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunshine and milder temperatures return Saturday.

- Numerous rain showers expected Sunday, but rain amounts will
  be much less than observed from the previous storm system.

- A long stretch of dry weather is expected Monday through
  Friday.

- A dry cold front will bring elevated north winds Tuesday,
  followed by a hard freeze in the 20s Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery and surface
observations showed widespread stratus persisting across SW KS,
but it was eroding gradually on the northern and western
periphery. Stratus will continue to erode through sunrise. Will
need to monitor for fog development through Saturday morning,
given wet ground from previous rains and a saturated boundary
layer. Light downslope trajectories should deter fog development
from being widespread, but updated to increase fog mention in
the grids through sunrise.

Sunshine returns Saturday, allowing for milder temperatures. A
ridge axis building overhead will reduce cloud cover to minimal
levels, and a weak pressure gradient will keep winds light,
10 mph or less with a westerly component. The result will be a
beautiful day for late November standards, with 3 pm
temperatures in the lower 60s, several degrees above normal.

Southern stream closed midlevel cyclone over Baja California at
6 pm Saturday will advance quickly northeast to Arizona 6 am
Sunday, and into central Colorado through Sunday evening.
Forcing for ascent will increase quickly daylight Sunday, with
rapidly increasing clouds. Models have shown continuity with
numerous rain showers spreading southwest to northeast across
SW KS Sunday afternoon. This appears to be a high pop/low QPF
event, with high confidence of rain showers, but also high
confidence that rain amounts will be much reduced compared to
the previous event. NBM probability of QPF > 0.10 inch has been
trending downward the last several runs, and QPF grids now
carry a widespread 0.10-0.20 inch rainfall. Progressive nature
of the ejecting trough will push showers rapidly through,
limiting time for rainfall to accumulate at any one location.
Instability progs across the various models are nil to scant,
as such kept thunder out of the grids. That said, SPC Day 2
convective outlook does include a general thunder outlook for
SW KS. Given the favorable diurnal timing with the trough
approaching during the warmest afternoon hours, some thunder
can`t be ruled out. Certainly, severe weather is not expected.

Trough weakens and ejects eastward across Kansas Monday, with
subsidence and decreasing clouds. Little change in afternoon
temperatures, in the lower 60s. An amplifying shortwave in the
northern stream will cross the northern plains Tuesday, with the
associated dry cold front racing through about sunrise Tuesday.
After coordinating with neighboring WFOs, increased wind grids
on Tuesday above the NBM. 850 mb winds as high as 40 kts are
noted on ECMWF guidance, so gusts near 40 mph are probable,
especially at wind prone locations such as the preferred US 83
corridor.

Cold Canadian surface high near 1032 mb is forecast to settle
directly over SW KS sunrise Wednesday, allowing for a hard
freeze in the 20s. Afternoon temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday
will be chillier than we are used to, in the upper 40s and lower
50s, but these readings are very near normal for late November.

An extended dry spell is expected Tuesday through Friday, under
dry benign NWly flow aloft, excellent for the busy Thanksgiving
travel period. Global models and their ensembles agree with
strong troughing across western North America by December 1st,
but have shown no continuity with details, to be expected this
far out. Pops for rain showers do return in the NBM grids by
next Saturday, with a strong surge of gulf moisture expected
northward through the plains. Some interesting weather impacts
are possible Sunday and Monday, also big travel days, but it is
impossible to speculate details that far out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR expected through TAF pd. Light SW winds today 5-10 kt becoming
light and variable tonight.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Sugden