060
FXUS63 KDDC 242254
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
454 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild through Friday

- Turning colder over the weekend

- Watching for the potential wintry mix possible Sunday and Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Satellite shows an upper level low located across central Kansas this
afternoon. Scattered showers and low clouds have been associated
with this feature as the day continues. These showers and cloud cover
will eventually shift off to the east with tranquil conditions prevailing
in its wake for the overnight hours. Overnight lows will range from
the 20s across far western Kansas to the upper 30s/lower 40s across
the eastern zones. After the showers move out, no additional precipitation
is expected at least through the morning hours and much longer.

A reinforcing shot of cooler air is expected for tomorrow. 850 hPa
temperatures looking to decrease through the day via CAA in the -2C
to 2C range. Have gone with the cooler side of high temperature guidance,
particularly across the northern zones to account for the CAA. 50s
looks likely across the Oklahoma border. The pressure gradient will
increase through the day as well. The net result is breezy northwest
winds around 20-25 mph with higher gusts. Afternoon relative humidities
are forecast to remain at moderate levels, so it will not be anywhere
near or approaching a higher fire danger, given the mentioned cooler
highs and resultant higher rh`s.

Looking forward, Turkey day is expected to be rather tranquil and
with near normal temperatures. Highs Thursday could be a mix of upper
40s in the north to lower 50s in the south. No precipitation is expected
during supper time. Lows will trend close to normal with values in
the 20s by Thursday morning. The banal weather pattern will continue
for Friday, with highs in the mix of 40s and 50s and lows in the
mix of 20s to 30s.

Attention then turns to the weekend. This is where both the deterministic
models as well as their ensemble counterparts diverge. The deterministic
GFS keeps southwest Kansas in the warm sector. The GEFS does not.
Both the ECMWF and EPS do not either. These colder models show the
passage of a strong front Saturday. The most recent version of the
NBM has come in warmer than its older run. Seems like the deterministic
GFS is an outlier compared to the deterministic EC and the EPS/GEFS.
Something to watch. There might be a light wintry mix of precipitation
Sunday and into Monday. This, however, is even more uncertain than
the cooler temperature trend. Something to watch over time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 454 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The deep low is finally exiting out of the area and showers are
clearing up. Some lowered ceilings remain and may keep flight
conditions lowered at HYS. VFR conditions are forecast to return
early in the TAF period if not immediately. Some LLWS is forecast
from around 11Z-16Z. Otherwise mostly clear skies are expected with
a N/NW wind that gusts up to 35 KTs around 16Z.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...KBJ