018
FXUS63 KDDC 052001
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
201 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to just below normal temperatures today under mostly
  cloudy skies and light north winds.

- Warmer tomorrow, but a dry cold frontal passage during the
  afternoon/evening pushes temperatures back below normal
  Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures and no precipitation chances Monday
  through the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at
midday reveal broad longwave troughing is in place over the
entire CONUS, with several vorticity maxima emanating through
the flow. At the surface, southwest KS resides on the far
southwestern periphery of low pressure centered over eastern
Canada, yielding light, cool northerly winds across our area.
These winds along with mostly cloudy skies should keep afternoon
temperatures near or just below normal with highs in the upper
40s/low 50s. Overnight, winds will drop to around 5 mph as the
aforementioned low pressure moves further away along with
clearing skies, optimizing radiational cooling and allowing
temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s by sunrise Saturday
morning.

Daytime Saturday, short range guidance agree the overall synoptic
pattern will stay static, but an embedded vorticity maximum
over the northern Rockies at 12Z will dig southeastward into the
central plains, resulting in a dry cold frontal passage around
00Z Sunday. Before this boundary arrives, pre-frontal
compression and mostly clear skies will support afternoon
temperatures rising above normal, with highs in the mid 50s to
near 60.

Medium range ensembles agree below normal temperatures will
return on Sunday behind the previous day`s cold front, with
highs ranging from the mid 30s northeast to the upper 40s
southwest. However, this will be short lived as upper level
ridging begins to build over the western CONUS, which favors a
warming trend over the central plains along with little to no
precipitation chances Monday through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
light northwesterly winds aoa 10 kts will weaken to light and
variable during the overnight period. By 13-15Z tomorrow
morning, winds will increase out of the south-southwest into the
12-14 kt range.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer