924
FXUS63 KDDC 191114
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more mainly dry and mild day

- Widespread rainfall Thursday-Friday; 50-70% chance of 1" or
  more in some areas

- Cooler temperatures Friday into the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

One more day of mainly dry and mild conditions are expected this
afternoon across the forecast area. 850 mb temperatures
across the region this afternoon continue to remain elevated,
translating to surface temperatures being around 10 degrees
above seasonal norms. Temperatures will be mainly in the 60s,
but some low 70s will be possible across far southwest Kansas.
Increasing clouds will be what limits even higher temperatures
being reached.

Biggest weather talking point this week remains the emerging
storm system, with the high likelihood of widespread rainfall
Thursday and into Friday. Mid to upper-level trough is now
beginning to emerge into Southern California per 08z analysis.
This feature will continue to translate eastward through the
Southwest today, before emerging and ejecting into the Plains
into Thursday. With 60s dew points already in place across
the south-central Plains, moisture advection northward will
readily occur, possibly reaching the OK/KS border Thursday
afternoon. Dew points across our forecast area will be lower
given being on the cooler side of the system, but ample moisture
will still reach and wrap around across the area. Expecting
widespread rainfall to begin late Thursday morning and for it to
persist through Thursday afternoon, into Thursday night, before
gradually tapering off into Friday. WPC continues to maintain an
area wide Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4; at least 5%) for
excessive rainfall leading to areas of flooding. NBM
probabilities of greater than 1" continue to be 50-70% chance,
with the greatest concentration in eastern counties.

System departs through the day Friday, leading to more seasonal
temperatures into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Visibility this morning continues to be reduced due to fog
across a large portion of central and southwest Kansas. Quarter
mile or less have been observed at DDC, GCK, and HYS. DDC and
HYS have also reported freezing fog. Expect varying
visibilities from a quarter mile to around 2 SM through 16z.
Improving conditions will occur throughout the morning. Into
this afternoon, winds will pivot from the south 10-15 knots.
Clouds will be on the increase as well.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ030-031-
043>046-063>065-077>079.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Bennett