280
FXUS63 KDDC 211115
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bulk of the rainfall event will conclude by sunrise Friday,
  with total rainfall accumulations ranging from 0.25" to 1+".

- Another, less significant rainfall event expected Sunday, with
  an additional 0.1-0.25" of QPF possible.

- Dry and cool Monday through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

KDDC radar observations early Friday morning depict widespread
light to moderate rainfall is occurring across much of the area
associated with a negatively-tilted upper level shortwave
trough ejecting onto the central plains. As this synoptic
feature continues northeast over the next few hours, rainfall
will pivot north/northeast and begin to taper off from south to
north, with much of the area rain-free by sunrise Friday
morning. Although, precipitation may linger well into the day
near the I-70 corridor. Once all is said and done, total
rainfall accumulations will range from the 0.25-0.5" range in
our far southwest zones to the 1-1.25" range across the
northeastern half of our CWA, including Dodge City.

Daytime Friday will be gloomy, as overcast skies, evaporative
cooling, and northerly winds all act to hold temperatures in the
40s for most zones. Areas within Barber County and the vicinity
may see some cloud breaks that allow temperatures to reach the
mid/upper 50s. Friday night, the stratus deck will begin to
erode, and combine with light northerly winds to support
Saturday morning lows in the upper 20s northwest to the upper
30s/near 40 southeast.

Skies will continue to clear out daytime Saturday as upper level
shortwave ridging builds atop the central and southern plains
ahead of another upper low over the far southwest CONUS. Given
the increased solar insolation, a noticeable uptick in
temperatures is expected with afternoon highs in the low 60s.

On Sunday, medium range ensembles have come into better
agreement compared to this time yesterday regarding the
timing of the aforementioned upper low ejecting northeastward
onto the central plains, bringing another round of widespread
rainfall to southwest KS. Current thinking is rainfall will
begin Sunday morning over the southwest zones and spread
northeast with time, with the bulk of the precipitation falling
during the afternoon and early evening hours. However, the
quicker translation speed of the wave and its neutral tilt will
significantly limit QPF totals, with NBM probability of QPF
greater than 0.25" less than 50% for all zones. As such, total
rainfall accumulations in the 0.1-0.25" range from the ECMWF
EPS and GEFS ensemble means seem reasonable.

In the wake of the Sunday wave, ensembles agree upper level
longwave troughing will gradually shift eastward through the end
of the period as longwave ridging takes shape over the western
CONUS. This pattern change will foster primarily dry conditions
across southwest KS, and hints of a cold frontal passage around
Tuesday will knock temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Tonight`s widespread precipitation event is winding down as
rainfall has cleared DDC, GCK, and LBL, but HYS is still
several hours away from joining them as the northward
progression of the precipitation shield stalls. Despite rainfall
ending at most terminals, IFR/LIFR cigs remain across all
terminals, with recovery beginning later this morning at LBL
and gradually making northeastward progress. By the end of the
period, all terminals will return to or be near VFR. Otherwise,
winds will be out of the north to north-northwest aoa 12 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Springer