369
FXUS63 KDDC 211723
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1123 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bulk of the rainfall event will conclude by sunrise Friday,
  with total rainfall accumulations ranging from 0.25" to 1+".

- Another, less significant rainfall event expected Sunday, with
  an additional 0.1-0.25" of QPF possible.

- Dry and cool Monday through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

KDDC radar observations early Friday morning depict widespread
light to moderate rainfall is occurring across much of the area
associated with a negatively-tilted upper level shortwave
trough ejecting onto the central plains. As this synoptic
feature continues northeast over the next few hours, rainfall
will pivot north/northeast and begin to taper off from south to
north, with much of the area rain-free by sunrise Friday
morning. Although, precipitation may linger well into the day
near the I-70 corridor. Once all is said and done, total
rainfall accumulations will range from the 0.25-0.5" range in
our far southwest zones to the 1-1.25" range across the
northeastern half of our CWA, including Dodge City.

Daytime Friday will be gloomy, as overcast skies, evaporative
cooling, and northerly winds all act to hold temperatures in the
40s for most zones. Areas within Barber County and the vicinity
may see some cloud breaks that allow temperatures to reach the
mid/upper 50s. Friday night, the stratus deck will begin to
erode, and combine with light northerly winds to support
Saturday morning lows in the upper 20s northwest to the upper
30s/near 40 southeast.

Skies will continue to clear out daytime Saturday as upper level
shortwave ridging builds atop the central and southern plains
ahead of another upper low over the far southwest CONUS. Given
the increased solar insolation, a noticeable uptick in
temperatures is expected with afternoon highs in the low 60s.

On Sunday, medium range ensembles have come into better
agreement compared to this time yesterday regarding the
timing of the aforementioned upper low ejecting northeastward
onto the central plains, bringing another round of widespread
rainfall to southwest KS. Current thinking is rainfall will
begin Sunday morning over the southwest zones and spread
northeast with time, with the bulk of the precipitation falling
during the afternoon and early evening hours. However, the
quicker translation speed of the wave and its neutral tilt will
significantly limit QPF totals, with NBM probability of QPF
greater than 0.25" less than 50% for all zones. As such, total
rainfall accumulations in the 0.1-0.25" range from the ECMWF
EPS and GEFS ensemble means seem reasonable.

In the wake of the Sunday wave, ensembles agree upper level
longwave troughing will gradually shift eastward through the end
of the period as longwave ridging takes shape over the western
CONUS. This pattern change will foster primarily dry conditions
across southwest KS, and hints of a cold frontal passage around
Tuesday will knock temperatures well below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Moisture and lift just west of an upper level trough located in
north central Kansas at 10 am, based on the Water Vapor loop,
was producing some light rain across portions of southwest
Kansas. This area of light precipitation will move into Central
Kansas by evening with the best chances for any precipitation
today occurring around the Hays area. In addition to the light
rain, widespread IFR ceilings (5001000 ft AGL) across southwest
Kansas will linger through at least early evening. Ceilings
will begin to gradually improve from southwest to northeast
after 21z today with VFR conditions developing at Liberal and
Garden City between 03z and 06z Saturday, Dodge City between 06z
and 09z Saturday, and then Hays between 09z and 12z Saturday.
Northwest winds at 10 to 15 knots today will decrease to less
than 10 knots after 00z Saturday.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Burgert
AVIATION...Springer