Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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280 FXUS63 KDDC 211115 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 515 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Bulk of the rainfall event will conclude by sunrise Friday, with total rainfall accumulations ranging from 0.25" to 1+". - Another, less significant rainfall event expected Sunday, with an additional 0.1-0.25" of QPF possible. - Dry and cool Monday through the end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 KDDC radar observations early Friday morning depict widespread light to moderate rainfall is occurring across much of the area associated with a negatively-tilted upper level shortwave trough ejecting onto the central plains. As this synoptic feature continues northeast over the next few hours, rainfall will pivot north/northeast and begin to taper off from south to north, with much of the area rain-free by sunrise Friday morning. Although, precipitation may linger well into the day near the I-70 corridor. Once all is said and done, total rainfall accumulations will range from the 0.25-0.5" range in our far southwest zones to the 1-1.25" range across the northeastern half of our CWA, including Dodge City. Daytime Friday will be gloomy, as overcast skies, evaporative cooling, and northerly winds all act to hold temperatures in the 40s for most zones. Areas within Barber County and the vicinity may see some cloud breaks that allow temperatures to reach the mid/upper 50s. Friday night, the stratus deck will begin to erode, and combine with light northerly winds to support Saturday morning lows in the upper 20s northwest to the upper 30s/near 40 southeast. Skies will continue to clear out daytime Saturday as upper level shortwave ridging builds atop the central and southern plains ahead of another upper low over the far southwest CONUS. Given the increased solar insolation, a noticeable uptick in temperatures is expected with afternoon highs in the low 60s. On Sunday, medium range ensembles have come into better agreement compared to this time yesterday regarding the timing of the aforementioned upper low ejecting northeastward onto the central plains, bringing another round of widespread rainfall to southwest KS. Current thinking is rainfall will begin Sunday morning over the southwest zones and spread northeast with time, with the bulk of the precipitation falling during the afternoon and early evening hours. However, the quicker translation speed of the wave and its neutral tilt will significantly limit QPF totals, with NBM probability of QPF greater than 0.25" less than 50% for all zones. As such, total rainfall accumulations in the 0.1-0.25" range from the ECMWF EPS and GEFS ensemble means seem reasonable. In the wake of the Sunday wave, ensembles agree upper level longwave troughing will gradually shift eastward through the end of the period as longwave ridging takes shape over the western CONUS. This pattern change will foster primarily dry conditions across southwest KS, and hints of a cold frontal passage around Tuesday will knock temperatures well below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 515 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 Tonight`s widespread precipitation event is winding down as rainfall has cleared DDC, GCK, and LBL, but HYS is still several hours away from joining them as the northward progression of the precipitation shield stalls. Despite rainfall ending at most terminals, IFR/LIFR cigs remain across all terminals, with recovery beginning later this morning at LBL and gradually making northeastward progress. By the end of the period, all terminals will return to or be near VFR. Otherwise, winds will be out of the north to north-northwest aoa 12 kts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Springer AVIATION...Springer