678
FXUS63 KDDC 250438
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1038 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong north winds Tuesday gusting 40-45 mph.

- Widespread hard killing freeze in the 20s Wednesday morning.

- Dry uneventful weather Wednesday through Friday, excellent for
  Thanksgiving travel.

- Arctic cold front Friday night, followed by dramatically
  colder air this weekend. Light snow possible Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Satellite shows an upper level low located across central Kansas
this afternoon. Scattered showers and low clouds have been
associated with this feature as the day continues. These showers
and cloud cover will eventually shift off to the east with
tranquil conditions prevailing in its wake for the overnight
hours. Overnight lows will range from the 20s across far western
Kansas to the upper 30s/lower 40s across the eastern zones.
After the showers move out, no additional precipitation is
expected at least through the morning hours and much longer.

A reinforcing shot of cooler air is expected for tomorrow. 850
hPa temperatures looking to decrease through the day via CAA in
the -2C to 2C range. Have gone with the cooler side of high
temperature guidance, particularly across the northern zones to
account for the CAA. 50s looks likely across the Oklahoma
border. The pressure gradient will increase through the day as
well. The net result is breezy northwest winds around 20-25 mph
with higher gusts. Afternoon relative humidities are forecast to
remain at moderate levels, so it will not be anywhere near or
approaching a higher fire danger, given the mentioned cooler
highs and resultant higher rh`s.

Looking forward, Turkey day is expected to be rather tranquil
and with near normal temperatures. Highs Thursday could be a
mix of upper 40s in the north to lower 50s in the south. No
precipitation is expected during supper time. Lows will trend
close to normal with values in the 20s by Thursday morning. The
banal weather pattern will continue for Friday, with highs in
the mix of 40s and 50s and lows in the mix of 20s to 30s.

Attention then turns to the weekend. This is where both the
deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts
diverge. The deterministic GFS keeps southwest Kansas in the
warm sector. The GEFS does not. Both the ECMWF and EPS do not
either. These colder models show the passage of a strong front
Saturday. The most recent version of the NBM has come in warmer
than its older run. Seems like the deterministic GFS is an
outlier compared to the deterministic EC and the EPS/GEFS.
Something to watch. There might be a light wintry mix of
precipitation Sunday and into Monday. This, however, is even
more uncertain than the cooler temperature trend. Something to
watch over time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Infrared satellite imagery confirms stratus has eroded well east
of the airports as of 0430z. In the wake of the stratus, a light
wind regime and a saturated boundary layer has resulted in
sporadic, spotty ground fog development. Visbility may be quite
variable over the next few hours at GCK/DDC/HYS, and amendments
are expected. With time, light west downslope flow will erode
any fog through 12z Tue. After 15z Tue, strong north winds will
impact operations at all airports, gusting 32-37 kts. North
winds will diminish rapidly by 00z Wed, as 1032 mb surface high
pressure builds over SW KS. VFR is expected Tuesday through
Wednesday in a much drier regime.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner