949
FXUS63 KDDC 240440
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1040 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds will persist through at least the first half of
  Monday, with areas of drizzle. Decreasing clouds are expected
  toward sunset.

- A dry cold front will usher in strong north winds Tuesday.

- A widespread hard killing freeze is expected Wednesday
  morning, in the 20s.

- Dry quiet weather Thursday and Friday with temperatures near
  late November normals.

- Much colder arctic air, the coldest air so far this season,
  arrives this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

20z radar and satellite continue to show widespread rain with
embedded thunderstorms moving northeastward across the forecast
area. POPs remain in the likely to definite category, with only
slight chance thunderstorms, for the remainder of the afternoon
and first half of the evening. Rain chances diminish gradually
from southwest to northeast from 7-9 PM. With the rather quick
pace of the rain, only light storm totals are expected
generally in the 0.10-0.25" range.

Into tonight and Monday morning, with low-level moisture
remaining in place behind the precipitation, another late night
and morning of areas of fog is possible across much of the
area. Short range guidance is suggestive of this outcome.
However, similarly to previous mornings, fog is likely to be
patchy with only localized areas of dense fog. Widespread dense
fog probabilities are low, with NBM showing only 10-20% chance
of visibilities less than 1 mile across much of the CWA. Trends
will be monitored for Dense Fog headlines, but not anticipating
the need at this time. Temperatures will fall into the 40s for
most, with mid to upper 30s in western zones.

We remain dry throughout the workweek. Only sensible weather
will be colder temperatures at times, especially Wednesday and
Thursday morning where temperatures will fall into the 20s for
much of the forecast area. Attention then turns to this weekend
with a more complex pattern emerging. Colder arctic air is
growing increasingly probable into next weekend. ECMWF/GFS/CMC
ensembles all in good agreement of 850mb temperatures dropping
below 0C by Saturday. NBM is most certainly too warm, and
refinements will likely occur in the coming days. As far as any
storm systems and precipitation chances are concerned,
ensembles show a more positively tilted trough into next
weekend, limiting the chances for a significant storm system.
However, NBM POPs do increase this weekend with wintry
precipitation chances existing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery and surface
observations at 0440z depicted widespread IFR/LIFR stratus
across all of SW KS. Surface visibility was only modestly
reduced by BR/FG at times. Degraded flight categories in
IFR/LIFR stratus will persist through 18z Mon, but kept
visibility restrictions in BR/FG at 2-4 sm for now. Will monitor
for fog development, with much higher confidence on the
persistent stratus. Stratus will be stubborn to erode/lift
Monday, with ceilings slowly climbing back to MVFR after
18z Mon. Finally, VFR/SKC is expected to return to all airports
after 00z Tue. Winds will remain light, less than 12 kts,
through this TAF period, variable in direction.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...Turner