590
FXUS63 KDDC 070534
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1134 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue through mid-week.

- Colder temperatures tonight with a warming trend likely early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is edging eastward across extreme southeast Colorado.

Dry conditions are forecast early in the period as the SREF shows an
embedded shortwave within the northwest flow aloft transitioning
east-southeast through the Central Plains this evening, pushing a
weak cold front farther southeast through southwest/south central
Kansas into Western Oklahoma this evening. With much drier air
overspreading and dominating the region within prevailing westerly
downsloping through early next week, precip chances are likely to
remain absent through at least mid-week. Near normal temperatures
are likely tonight as colder air filters slowly south into western
Kansas in wake of the frontal passage by this evening, pushing the
0C isotherm as far south as west central/central Kansas. Look for
widespread lows in the 20s(F) with the HREF pointing to a 70-90%
probability of temperatures dropping below 30F. Surface high pressure
sliding southeast through the Upper Midwest will reinforce a colder
air mass across the high plains of western Kansas within a east-
northeast upslope flow Sunday, supporting H85 temperatures holding
around 0C in central Kansas to near 5C in extreme southwest Kansas.
With the latest HREF painting less than a 10% probability of
temperatures exceeding 40F in central Kansas to better than a 90%
probability of topping 45F near the Colorado line, expect afternoon
highs struggling to climb out of the 30s(F) in vicinity of the I-70
corridor to near 50F in extreme southwest Kansas. Temperatures bounce
back a little Monday and Tuesday with a developing lee side trough
helping bring back southwesterly downsloping to southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Short term models appear to be in good agreement with a
reinforcement of colder air invading southwest Kansas between
03Z and 12Z Sunday. As the colder air moves in...an area of low
clouds (500 to 1000 ft AGL) will develop along with isolated
patchy fog (3-5sm br). These low clouds and patchy fog will
gradually give way to VFR conditions between 15Z and 18Z today
(Sunday). The north winds will decrease to 10 knots or less
after 15Z, and then gradually veer to the east southeast early
this evening.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert