843
FXUS63 KDDC 060554
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1154 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to just below normal temperatures today under mostly
  cloudy skies and light north winds.

- Warmer tomorrow, but a dry cold frontal passage during the
  afternoon/evening pushes temperatures back below normal
  Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures and no precipitation chances Monday
  through the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at
midday reveal broad longwave troughing is in place over the
entire CONUS, with several vorticity maxima emanating through
the flow. At the surface, southwest KS resides on the far
southwestern periphery of low pressure centered over eastern
Canada, yielding light, cool northerly winds across our area.
These winds along with mostly cloudy skies should keep afternoon
temperatures near or just below normal with highs in the upper
40s/low 50s. Overnight, winds will drop to around 5 mph as the
aforementioned low pressure moves further away along with
clearing skies, optimizing radiational cooling and allowing
temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s by sunrise Saturday
morning.

Daytime Saturday, short range guidance agree the overall synoptic
pattern will stay static, but an embedded vorticity maximum
over the northern Rockies at 12Z will dig southeastward into the
central plains, resulting in a dry cold frontal passage around
00Z Sunday. Before this boundary arrives, pre-frontal
compression and mostly clear skies will support afternoon
temperatures rising above normal, with highs in the mid 50s to
near 60.

Medium range ensembles agree below normal temperatures will
return on Sunday behind the previous day`s cold front, with
highs ranging from the mid 30s northeast to the upper 40s
southwest. However, this will be short lived as upper level
ridging begins to build over the western CONUS, which favors a
warming trend over the central plains along with little to no
precipitation chances Monday through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A surface trough will develop across the high plains and move
eastward during the period. Southwest winds are forecast to
increase in speed to 15-18kts with heating by 15z and then
weaken and veer to the west as the trough passes. A cold front
is predicted to pass across the area late in the period,
resulting in a wind shift to the northwest and north at 8 to 10
kts. VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Springer
AVIATION...Finch