Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
442 FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. the largest flare of the period was a C6.1 at 13/0334 UTC from Region 4274 (N24W64, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Slight decay was observed in the intermediate and trailing spots of Region 4274 with some growth in its leader spots. There was limited motion along the inversion lines within the intermediate and trailing spots. Slight growth was also observed in Region 4280 (S08E22, Cro/beta). The rest of the spot groups were either stable or in decay and magnetically simple. Other activity included an approximate 30 degree filament eruption, centered near S28E25, that began at 13/1700 UTC. Although most of the material appeared to be reabsorbed, an analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with moderate levels likely (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a chance for X-class (R3-Strong) activity on 14-16 Nov, mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4274. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,140 pfu observed at 13/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV proton fluxes continued to trend towards nominal levels however both are still enhanced near 7 pfu and 0.3 pfu, respectively. The greater than 10 MeV protons decreased below the S1 (Minor) threshold at 13/1650 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 14-16 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to trend towards nominal levels barring any further significant flare activity from Region 4274. Therefore, there is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storming on 14-16 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected CME activity that left the sun on 11 Nov. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 999 km/s at 13/0105 UTC and has gradually decreased to near 715 km/s. Total field reached 22 nT early in the period and has decreased to near 4 nT. The Bz component reached a maximum southward component of -17 nT at 13/0026 UTC and became mostly north after 13/0820 UTC. Phi rotated into a positive sector between 13/0211-1611 UTC. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced but waning through 14 Nov as the solar wind gradually returns to nominal levels. Speeds in the 600-700 km/s range is likely through early on 14 Nov. Nominal levels are expected to return on 15 Nov. By mid to late on 16 Nov, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a negative polarity CH HSS will likely become geoeffective causing another enhancement in the solar wind. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storming levels due to activity associated with the arrival of the 11 Nov CME. Strong storm levels were observed between 13/00-06 UTC. .Forecast... With elevated solar wind speeds beginning the UTC day on 14 Nov, G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm conditions are still likely depending on the orientation and magnitude of the magnetic field component of the solar wind. By mid to late on 14 Nov, conditions are expected to calm to mostly unsettled levels. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 15 Nov under near nominal solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled levels is expected through most of 16 Nov until the arrival of a CIR/CH HSS later in the UTC day. Active to G1 (Minor) storming is likely thereafter.