Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
972
FXXX12 KWNP 070031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Oct 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4232 (N03W62, Cho/beta)
produced the majority of the activity this period with a few low-level
C-class flares. Region 4236 (N10W69, Eai/beta-gamma) maintained a more
complex magnetic configuration with a mixed polarity configuration in
its intermediate area, but was relatively quiet. Region 4241 (N13W23,
Eao/beta) developed an additional leading spot and produced a C1.9 flare
at 06/0849 UTC. Regions 4242 (S11W15, Dai/beta) quietly underwent minor
growth while Region 4245 (S11W25, Cro/beta) developed just ahead of it
and was subsequently numbered. Region 4246 (N24E66, Axx/alpha) was also
numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable.

No discernable CME was observed from the filament eruption centered near
S20E25 at the end of 05 Oct. Another filament eruption occurred in the
vicinity of Region 4233 (N19, L=052) with an associated C5.1 flare at
06/2037 UTC. Analysis of any potential CME will be conducted as imagery
becomes available.

.Forecast...
A moderate chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to
M-class flare activity, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong)
event, will persist through 08 Oct. Probabilities undergo a minor
decrease on 09 Oct as Region 4236 exits the western limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued to reach high levels with
a peak flux of 17,900 pfu observed at 06/1635 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained below the S1 (Minor) threshold over the past 24
hrs.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high
levels due to ongoing post high speed stream influences through 08 Oct
before returning to moderate levels on 09 Oct. There is a slight chance
for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar
radiation storm levels through 08 Oct. Probabilities for an event
decrease on 09 Oct as active regions exit the western limb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence from a positive
polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged 5-7 nT and the Bz component was +/-
5 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged from approximately 380-440 km/s and phi
was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
Waning CH HSS influences are expected to continue during the early to
midday portions of 07 Oct. Enhanced parameters are likely by late on 07
Oct and continuing into 08 Oct due to coronal mass ejection arrivals
from a pair of CMEs that left the Sun on 03 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity will likely reach G1 (Minor) storm levels,
with a chance for G2 (Moderate) periods, on 07 and 08 Oct due to CME
effects. Primarily unsettled conditions are expected on 09 Oct as CME
effects slowly wane.