186
FXXX12 KWNP 121231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Nov 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels after the end of the X5.1/3B flare
at 11/1251, from Region 4274 (N24W51, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Only
low-level C-class X-ray activity was observed. The other six regions
present at the visible solar disk remained stable or showed slight decay
during the period.

No new CME was observed at the available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be high, with R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
expected and further X-class (R3-Strong) activity likely on 12-14 Nov,
mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4274.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux started the period at high
levels, with a maximum of 1,090 pfu at 11/1220 UTC, and returned to
moderate levels shortly after 12/0500 UTC.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux were elevated to S2 (moderate)
levels following the X5.1/3B flare at 11/1004 UTC. With the arrival of
the shock from a CME that left the Sun on 10 Nov, S3 (Strong) conditions
were briefly observed with a peak flux of 1,460 sfu at 12/0215 UTC. Flux
levels decreased below the S3 (Strong) threshold at 12/0315 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 12-14 Nov.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue above S1-S2
(Minor-Moderate) levels, with a chance for S3 (Strong) on 12-13 Nov due
to multiple CMEs passing by Earth. S1 (Minor) level are likely on 14
Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a CME that left the Sun on
10 Nov. An abrupt increase in solar wind speeds and total magnetic field
strength were observed at 11/2338 UTC. Total magnetic field strength
reached a peak of 63 nT during the sheath of the CME and transitioned to
the driver after 12/0254 UTC. The Bz component reached as far south as
-55 nT at 11/2357 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to a recorded peak of
~740 km/s before the faraday cup became contained by high energy proton
flux after 12/0053 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels over
12 Nov as CME influence continues. Additional enhancements are
anticipated late on 12 Nov and into 13 Nov from the arrival of another
CME that left the Sun on 10 Nov. Waning influence from CME activity is
likely over 14 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm levels due
to effects from a CME that left the Sun on 10 Nov.

.Forecast...
G1-G4 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storm levels, with a chance for G5
(Extreme), are expected on 12 Nov due to continued influence from a CME
that left the Sun on 10 Nov and the anticipated onset of a CME that left
the Sun on 11 Nov. G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels are likely to
continue into 13 Nov as CME activity persists. Unsettled to G1 (Minor)
levels are likely on 14 Nov as activity wanes.