Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
831 FXXX12 KWNP 140031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Oct 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to M-class flare activity. Region 4246 (N22W30, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) underwent significant evolution, growing in overall size while gaining multiple new spots. Subsequently, AR4246 was the main provider for activity which included an M1.9 flare at 13/0526 UTC, an M2.7 flare at 13/0919 UTC and a M1.2 flare at 13/1318 UTC. Coronal mass ejections were associated the M1.9 and M1.2 events with the latter being accompanied by a type II radio sweep from USAF observatories with an estimated speed of 570 km/s. Modeling efforts of these events suggest arrival at Earth by mid to late on 17 Oct. However, forecaster confidence is relatively low in this outcome. The current train of thought is an earlier arrival considering previous CMEs from this region are forecast to arrive late on 15 Oct and into 16 Oct. This would suggest a likely earlier arrival for the 13 Oct events than what current model output predicts. Additional modeling efforts are underway as of the time of this writing to perhaps confirm those suspicions. Other notable activity included slight decay in the intermediate portion of Region 4248 (N07E01, Eko/beta-gamma-delta) as it grew in length. Regions 4247 (S12W64, Bxo/beta) and 4250 (N07E06, Cro/beta) were in decay as well. The remaining regions were unremarkable in comparison. No new regions were assigned numbers this period. .Forecast... A high chance for a few R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, will persist through 16 Oct primarily due to the flare potential presented by AR4246. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 4,080 pfu observed at 13/1425 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during this period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching high levels on 14 Oct before returning to normal do moderate levels on 15-16 Oct. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event above the S1 (Minor) levels through 16 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field decreased slightly from 6-7 nT to 4-5 nT. The Bz component was +/- 6 nT at times, but was mostly near neutral or northward for the majority of the period. Solar wind speeds averaged just below 700 km/s and phi was predominantly in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels, although gradually waning, over the course of 14 Oct due to persistent effects from the negative polarity CH HSS. Additional enhancements are anticipated to begin by late on 15 due to CME arrivals from 11-12 Oct originating from AR4246. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels early on 13 Oct, but was primarily unsettled to active thereafter. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field will likely continue to reach active levels, with a chance for an early G1 (Minor) storm period, on 14 Oct. Activity is then expected to trend towards predominantly quiet to unsettled levels until late on 15 Oct when active conditions are likely once again as CMEs from 11-12 Oct begin to impact the near-Earth environment. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is then likely on 16 Oct in response to CME effects.