Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
715 FXXX12 KWNP 171231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels. Recently numbered Region 4284 (S07W12, Dai/beta) grew into the most complex region on the visible disk. It produced an impulsive C7.5/SF flare at 17/0130 UTC, the strongest of the period. The remaining spotted active regions were simple and quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with slight chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), over 17-19 Nov. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to trend closer to background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be at moderate levels over 17-19 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at or near background levels through 19 Nov. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected mildly enhanced conditions. Total magnetic field strength was between 2-7 nT. No significant periods of sustained southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds steadily declined from ~625 km/s to ~525 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be elevated over 17 Nov under waning influence from the transient and the transition to a negative polarity CH HSS. Continued enhancements in the solar wind parameters are likely to persist from coronal hole influence over 18-19 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 17 Nov due to a combination of waning effects from a CME that left the Sun on 14 Nov and the continued influence from a negative polarity coronal hole. Unsettled to active conditions are likely to set in over 18 Nov, with activity expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels on 19 Nov during the waning phase of the CH HSS.