Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
778 FXXX12 KWNP 090031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 4298 (S16W64, Cso/beta) produced an impulsive X1.1/2b (R3-Strong) flare at 08/0501 UTC. Region 4299 (N22W25, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M2.4/2n (R1-Minor) flare at 08/0012 UTC and an M1.8/1n (R1-Minor) flare at 08/0654 UTC. Region 4294 (S16W42, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an an M2.0 flare at 08/0036 UTC and an M1.1 at 08/1305 UTC. Enhanced flux emergence in its leading spots and intermediate region brought about a larger area and sunspot count. This region also produced and M3.2 flare at 08/2117 UTC at the same time that Region 4304 was also flaring and possibly contributing to the observed X-ray enhancement. Similar situation happened at 08/2228 UTC, when an M1.2 was measured while both Regions 4294 and 4299 were simultaneously flaring. Eruptions from the M1.8/1n flare at 08/0012 UTC and the X1.1/2b flare at 08/0501 UTC both appeared to be reabsorbed with no discernible CME activity. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 09-11 Dec, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong) This is based on past flare history and the potential of current active regions on the disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at high levels, reaching a peak of 1039 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 09 Dec, and then decrease to normal to moderate levels on 10-11 Dec. A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement above 10 pfu (S1/Minor) through 10 Dec due to the eruptive potential and history of multiple active regions across the visible disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected near nominal conditions. The total field remained around 7 nT with the Bz component oscillating between +/-3 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 340-440 km/s. The phi angle remained in the negative sector. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to become enhanced due to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec. Expected arrival in 09 Dec, waning conditions are expected into 11 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels due to waning negative polarity coronal hole influences. .Forecast... G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 09 Dec due to the anticipated influence of the CME that left the Sun on 06 Dec. G1 conditions on 10 Dec are likely due to waning CME effects.