Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
425 FXXX12 KWNP 251231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 25 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at low levels with only C-class flares observed. Region 4291 (S13E32, Eai/beta-gamma) remains the most complex region on the disk but has been relatively quiet. Region 4290 (S11E24, Cso/beta) was also responsible for a few flares while experiencing overall decay. Region 4292 (S16W27, Dai/beta) exhibited evolution as it gained intermediate spots with rudimentary penumbra and developed asymmetric penumbra around its trailing spot. There were no Earth directed CMEs in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Flare probabilities remain low with a 15% chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a 1% chance for X-class (Strong), but may slightly increase in the next 24 hours given the current development observed in AR 4292. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely remained suppressed through 26 Nov when solar wind speeds are at their strongest. As wind speeds decrease, the Van Allen belts will rebound bringing with them a higher concentration of electrons. Electrons during 26-27 Nov will likely cross the 1,000 pfu threshold, reaching high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at back ground levels through 27 Nov given the lack of complex active regions capable of producing energetic events. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced throughout the period due to the arrival of a co-rotating interacting region (CIR) and its associated CH HSS. The total field (Bt) reached 15 nT with the north-south (Bz) component dipping to -11 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from roughly 700 km/s to just above 800 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are to remain enhanced through 27 Nov due to the continued influence of the CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to continue to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 25 Nov. Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming are likely to continue through 26 Nov as CH HSS effects continue. Unsettled to active levels are expected thereafter.