Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
164 FXXX12 KWNP 271231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Nov 27 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low with only C-class level flares. Region 4291 (S14E06, Dai/beta-delta) remains the largest region but is becoming less active. Region 4292 (S16W53, Dai/beta) was the area responsible for the most flare activity which is expected based on its circular flux emergence signature. All other regions were either stable or in decay. There were no Earth-directed CMEs in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Simple regions throughout the disk will maintain lower chances for flare activity through 29 Nov, with only a 15% chance for M-class (Minor-Moderate) and 1% for X-class (Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has remained above the 1,000 pfu threshold for most of the period, reaching a peak of 10,063 pfu. This is due to the geoeffective positioning of the positive polarity coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... Electrons will remain high at geostationary orbit through 29 Nov due to ongoing effects from the CH HSS. Chances for protons becoming elevated are unlikely (1% chance) due to the simplicity of regions on the disk. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to the geoeffective position of the positive polarity CH HSS. The total interplanetary magnetic field was between 3-8 nT with the north-south (Bz) component oscillating between +/-6 nT which is typical within a HSS. Solar wind speeds underwent a gradual decline, ending the period between 600-700 km/s . The phi angle remained mostly in the positive (away from the Sun) sector. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are anticipated to continue at or or near similar levels through 29 Nov. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. .Forecast... Due to high solar wind speeds within the CH HSS, isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels are expected on 27 Nov. Conditions will diminish to unsettled to active levels 28-29 Nov.