Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
854 FXXX12 KWNP 011231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Dec 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to an X1.9 (R3-Strong) flare observed from new Region 4299 (N22E75, Hsx/alpha). Associated with this event was a Castelli U radio burst, a 988 km/s Type II sweep and a Type IV sweep. The event produced a rapid, partial-halo CME observed off the NE limb, however, initial analysis and model output determined no Earth-directed component. The large sunspot group, 4294 (S15E52, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta), was split into three groups based on magnetic complexity. New Region 4298 (S16E39, Hsx/alpha) was numbered ahead of the large group Region 4294. New Region 4296 (S14E69, Hsx/alpha) was numbered just to the east of Region 4294. New Region 4297 (S12W08, Bxo/beta) was also numbered. A other sunspot groups were quiet and unchanged. No additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely, with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong), over 01-03 Dec. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels, with a peak flux of 12,900 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 01-03 Dec. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels through 03 Dec due primarily from the X1.9 flare observed early on 01 Dec and from the eruptive potential from Region 4294. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-6 nT. Bz was primarily oriented southward. Solar wind speeds declined from ~625 km/s to near 475 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Positive polarity CH HSS influences are expected to wane over 01 Dec, followed by a return to at or near ambient levels over 02 Dec. Another enhancement in solar wind parameters from a negative polarity coronal hole is expected on 03 Dec. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels under waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels, with a chance for active levels, on 01 Dec as positive polarity CH HSS influences wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 02 Dec with the return of an ambient solar wind environment. Active conditions, with a chance for G1 (Minor), are likely with the anticipated onset of influence from a large, negative polarity coronal hole on 03 Dec.