050
FXXX12 KWNP 070031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Dec 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels when Region 4299 (N21W01,
Dao/beta-delta) produced an M1.1 (R1/Minor) flare at 06/1921 UTC, and an
M8.1/2B
(R2/Moderate) at 06/2039 UTC. Associated with the M8.1 flare was a
Tenflare (680 sfu), a Type-II radio sweep (est. 1,143 km/s), and a
Type-IV radio sweep. Some development was observed around the leader
spot of Region 4299, while slight decay was noted among the trailer
spots. Region 4296 (S14W04, Eki/beta) and 4294 (S15W23,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) remained the largest of the visible disk but only
produced C-class activity in the past 24 hours. Only minor changes were
observed among the other numbered active regions.

Coronagraph imagery available at the time of writing shows indications
of an Earth-directed CME associated with the M1.1 and M8.1 flares from
Region 4299, however, additional imagery is needed to determine CME
parameters and arrival timing.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely over 07-09 Dec, with a
slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), given past flare history
and the potential of current active regions on the disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux in geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak flux of 2,140 pfu observed at 06/1820 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux in geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue to reach
high levels over 07-09 Dec due to elevated solar wind speeds associated
with the ongoing CH HSS.

A slight chance exists for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux enhancement
above 10 pfu (S1/Minor) through 09 Dec due to the eruptive potential of
multiple active regions across the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing influence of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-8 nT. The
Bz component briefly reached as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds
varied mostly between ~600-700 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly
oriented in the negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced by the
negative polarity coronal hole HSS over 07 Dec. An additional
enhancement is likely late on 07 Dec and in to 08 Dec due to glancing
effects from a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec. A trend towards
background solar wind conditions is likely on 09 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels due to negative
polarity coronal hole influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 07-08 Dec due to the anticipated onset of influence from the
periphery of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Dec. A return to mostly quiet
levels is likely on 09 Dec.