808
FXXX12 KWNP 101231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Nov 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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#             Forecast Discussion
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Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels again this period, with another
X-class flare. Region 4274 (N25W17, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a
long-duration X1.2/2B flare (R3-Strong) at 10/0919 UTC, with associated
Type-II (1321 km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps, and an F10.7 cm radio
burst (860 sfu). This event also had a Castelli-U radio burst, which is
a good indication a proton event is possible, as well as a halo CME. The
bulk of the full halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 10/0936
UTC, appears to have a NW bias, but with the source location being near
center disk, an Earth-directed component is highly likely. Analysis is
underway to determine arrival time at Earth.

Region 4274 showed little change and maintained its delta configuration.
Regions 4276 (S18E20, Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited slight growth in its
intermediate spots, while Region 4277 (S07E20, Dsi/beta) lost some of
its trailing spots. Both of these spot groups were fairly inactive,
producing only few C-class flares each. The remainder of the spot groups
were relatively unchanged and inactive.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) are likely, with a chance for an
isolated X-class flare (R3-Strong), on 10-12 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) storm levels, and
was still rising at the time of this writing.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
on 10-12 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux to is expected to
continue at S1 (Minor) storm levels on 10-11 Nov following the X1.2
flare from Region 4274. There is a chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels on
12 Nov due to the flare potential and location of Region 4274.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect persistent negative polarity
CH HSS influences. Total field strength observed several readings near 8
nT, but averaged near 5 nT. The Bz component was mostly north, but did
see a brief period sustained southward near -6 nT. Solar wind speeds
were between 450 km/s to 600 km/s. Phi was variable through the first
half of the period before turning mostly negative for the second half.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is likely to become mildly enhanced with CME
influences on 10 Nov as the 07 Nov CME passes in close proximity to
Earth. Stronger solar wind disturbances are likely over 11-12 Nov due to
the anticipated arrival of the 09 Nov asymmetric halo CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on 10 Nov due to
possible CME enhancements as the 07 Nov CME passes in close proximity to
Earth. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely
on 11-12 Nov in response to the anticipated arrival of the 09 Nov
asymmetric halo CME.