769
FXUS63 KDLH 011842
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1242 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of very light snow and flurries is possible today and
  tomorrow.

- The next chance for widespread light snow (up to 2 inches)
  is Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Expect blustery northwest winds and very cold temperatures
  mid-week.

- Widespread below zero low temperatures are likely Wednesday
  night into Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Mostly cloudy conditions across the Northland. A weak
disturbance moving into the area from the west will keep the
cloud cover persistent causing flurries, but no significant
measurable snow is expected. Temperatures will remain quite
chilly, with highs only reaching the mid to upper teens. Tuesday
looks generally quiet during the day, with a small warming
trend to the low 20s, but clouds will increase as the next
weather system approaches.

The next notable weather maker is a quick-moving system arriving
Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday. This is expected
to bring our best chance for accumulating snow this week, with
most areas likely seeing a dusting to an inch or two across our
region. Areas along the Wisconsin South Shore of Lake Superior have
the potential for slightly higher totals due to the lake`s influence
enhancing the snowfall. The total snowfall accumulation is not
expected to be significant because this system isn`t carrying a lot
of moisture. Following this system, cold air will move in quickly
on Wednesday, making conditions blustery with northwest wind gusts
potentially reaching 20 to 25 miles per hour. This will lead to very
cold wind chills near -25 F, so we may have to issue some Cold
Weather Advisories.

The rest of the work week and into the next weekend will feature a
consistently cold pattern, with temperatures near or below average
for early December. An active upper-level flow will allow several
small disturbances to pass through the Northland on northwest flow,
bringing periodic chances for light snow through the week. However,
there is some uncertainty about the exact timing and track of these
features later in the week, so details remain fuzzy, but no major
snow impacts are currently expected. We will continue to monitor
the potential for a slightly more organized, but fairly moisture
starved, system next weekend which could bring a better chance for
snow, but for now, the focus is on the light snow mid-week and
the prolonged period of arctic cold. No southern stream systems
are expected which will limit moisture for any systems that do
pass through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A broad area of MVFR stratus is present over the Northland this
afternoon and is expected to persist through the TAF period
spitting out flurries. While ceilings may lift briefly today,
they are expected to lower again tonight, potentially reaching
IFR conditions after 00Z Tuesday at KDLH, KHYR, and KHIB.
Current guidance is trending towards a 50% chance of IFR
overnight at KDLH. Visibilities should generally remain VFR
though a quick reduction may occur if a good snow shower passes
overhead. Winds will be light and southwest. Ceilings will be a
concern tonight if they fall into IFR heights.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through this evening for
most of the nearshore waters of Western Lake Superior, due to
southwest winds gusting up to 25 to 30 knots in the open waters,
leading to waves of 3 to 5 feet - mainly over the Apostles.
These winds will diminish tonight. However, winds are expected
to increase again Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the
approaching weather system. Small Craft Advisories will likely
be needed Tuesday night and especially on Wednesday and
Wednesday night when winds shift to blustery northwest behind
the system, with speeds of 20 to 30 knots. Waves will build back
up to 4 to 6 feet across east of Grand Marais. Southwest gales
are possible Thursday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
     LSZ140>143-146>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe