163
FXUS63 KDLH 011723
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1123 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next best chance for appreciable light snow accumulations
  is Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a half to two inches
  possible across the Northland.

- Blustery northwest winds with gusts of 20-35 mph possible
  Wednesday.

- Colder temperatures continue through the work week with
  intermittent chances of snow with weak clipper systems. The
  coldest night is expected to be Wednesday night into Thursday
  morning with widespread lows well below zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Stratus clouds are lingering over the area early this morning
as a ridge of high pressure slowly pushes east across the area
through today. While this initial mass of clouds is lifting out
and allowing a big clear area over central Minnesota, another
wave of clouds has developed over western MN and eastern South
Dakota which will spread northeast today and bring the stratus
back in over the course of the day today. Have made the cloud
forecast on the pessimistic side based on the time of year with
the low sun angle, making it harder to mix out low stratus. We
may get some flurries out of these, but do not expect any
significant accumulations.

Our next chance for snow is Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
clipper slides across the area. There is not a lot of moisture
associated with this wave, as the best PWAT values are still
blocked by a large ridge axis over the lower mississippi river
valley. This is not a terribly impressive system, with a fairly
progressive motion and the forcing does not appear to be very
strong. However, it should manage to bring us at least a little
snow, with most areas getting between a dusting and an inch or
two across the Northland by Wednesday morning. The higher values
would be along the south shore where lake effects enhance the
totals. Gusty north west winds can be expected behind this
system on Wednesday with strong cold air advection behind it, a
fairly tight pressure gradient and winds aloft of 30 to 40
knots.

The rest of the work week into next weekend will remain
somewhat active, with broad upper level troughing over the Upper
Midwest region which will allow a series of shortwaves to pass
across the Northland. These will bring periodic chances for snow
through the week, though there is poor agreement between models
leading to relatively low confidence. None of these systems
look terribly impactful at this time, bringing relatively light
snowfall accumulations. We are also looking at near to below
normal temperatures for all of next week and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A broad area of MVFR stratus is present over the Northland this
afternoon and is expected to persist through the TAF period
spitting out flurries. While ceilings may lift briefly today,
they are expected to lower again tonight, potentially reaching
IFR conditions after 00Z Tuesday at KDLH, KHYR, and KHIB.
Current guidance is trending towards a 50% chance of IFR
overnight at KDLH. Visibilities should generally remain VFR
though a quick reduction may occur if a good snow shower passes
overhead. Winds will be light and southwest. Ceilings will be a
concern tonight if they fall into IFR heights.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 346 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Southwest winds this morning will gradually increase through
today before diminishing once again tonight. These winds should
top out in the 25 to 30 knot range, but mainly out in the open
waters, but this is still enough to cause hazardous conditions
and have maintained the Small Craft Advisories we have out for
most of western Lake Superior for today into this evening. Wind
speeds increase once again Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead
of a clipper which moves across the area Tuesday night. Behind
this clipper, winds will veer into the west and then northwest,
and become rather gusty through Wednesday and Wednesday night.
We may need Small Craft Advisories beginning Tuesday afternoon
and evening, and again Wednesday and Wednesday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for
     LSZ140>143-146>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...LE