269
FXUS63 KDLH 291139
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
539 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will affect areas from Brainerd to the Twin Ports and
  southeast today. The best chance for two inches or more is
  across NW WI.

- A heavy band of lake effect snow may bring a short lived
  period of intense snowfall to portions of the South Shore,
  extending from northern Douglas county, east across Bayfield,
  Ashland and Iron County this afternoon into early Sunday
  morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- Colder temperatures are expected for the much of the work
  week with additional passing chances of snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 433 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The very beginnings of the lake effect snow we expect later
today is beginning to set up over the lake this morning, with a
cluster of radar returns between the Apostle Islands, Two
Harbors and Silver Bay, which periodically drift onto land an
produce light snow showers. So far this does not appear too
significant, but later today as the easterly flow strengthens
and more moisture moves into the area, I expect this to increase
and begin to push some decent lake effect bands onto the North
Shore, generally south of Silver Bay. During the day today they
should not be too strong and have kept to chance pops with only
light accumulations. This is within the backdrop of a low
pressure system which moves from eastern Kansas this morning
northeast to northern Illinois by this evening, then into
Michigan tonight. The bulk of this storm will stay to our south,
but will contribute moisture and the easterly flow across the
lake to help generate the lake effect snow. As the winds slowly
back to northeast by this evening, then northerly tonight, the
lake effect bands will rotate across the South Shore overnight
tonight. We are expecting the bands to persist long enough to
produce some moderate snowfall accumulations in the 3 to 6 inch
range, mainly overnight tonight. But, we cannot forget about the
larger system to our south. The system shifted very slightly
north with the evening model runs, which has bumped up the total
snowfall amounts for Price county. Given this information, I
have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to Douglas, Iron and
Price counties beginning this afternoon and continuing overnight
tonight. I anticipate we`ll be able to drop some of these
counties earlier depending on how quickly the trajectory of the
LES bands shift, but considering how variable things still look,
this seems best for now.

A ridge of high pressure builds into the area early next week,
which should bring a period of quiet but colder weather for at
least the first parts of the week. The forecast is currently for
well below normal temperatures for all of next week, with some
potential for single digit to around zero low temperatures for a
few nights. An upper level trough moves across the Midwest
Monday into Tuesday, followed by another broad trough later in
the week. However, there is a lot of low confidence shortwaves
that should move through this upper level pattern, giving us
intermittent precipitation chances starting Tuesday night and
continuing into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Initial mixed MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to slowly
deteriorate today as a low pressure system moves across the
Midwest. This system mostly misses the Northland to the south.
However, KBRD and KHYR will receive a period of MVFR conditions
in light snow beginning this morning, and lingering through the
evening hours before conditions improve. Conditions will be
lowest at KHYR, with a period of IFR conditions tonight. There
is also potential for convergent lake effect snow bands to form.
Depending on the track of these bands they could greatly impact
KDLH with reduced visibility and moderate to heavy snowfall
rates. Have included a period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 433 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Northeast winds will gradually increase today over western Lake
Superior, causing building waves into the southwest arm of the
lake. Wind gusts should increase to 25 to 30 knots by this
afternoon and continue tonight, even as the direction backs
around to the north overnight and then northwest by Sunday. Have
issued Small Craft Advisories starting this afternoon and
continuing into Sunday before both winds and waves diminish. The
northwest winds diminish into Sunday night, but should increase
once again on Monday out of the southwest, potentially causing
another round of hazardous conditions for Small Craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for WIZ001>004.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Sunday for
     WIZ009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday
     for LSZ121-140>142-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST
     Sunday for LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE