180
FXUS63 KDLH 221152
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
552 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow and mixed precipitation is likely along and north
  of the Iron Range and in the Arrowhead this morning, ending
  last in the tip of the Arrowhead this afternoon. Snow
  accumulations of a trace to 0.5 inches and a very light glaze
  of ice are possible.

- Seasonally mild and mostly quiet weather Sunday into early
  Monday.

- A messy early winter system is in the forecast Monday
  afternoon through Thursday next week. Rain, snow, and strong
  winds are all possible. Rain and snow amounts are still
  uncertain, but have been trending up.

- A stark pattern change with below average temperatures is
  expected midweek and into at least early December.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Today - Tonight:

As of 3 AM CST this morning, a surface low was located near the
ND/MN/Canada border. Warm advection processes on the north side
of this low and mid/upper-level support for lift should be
enough to produce a light wintry mix along the International
Border and in the Arrowhead from early this morning through
around midday, with precipitation moving out of the tip of the
Arrowhead this afternoon. Temperatures will generally be below
freezing until mid to late morning, so expect a few hours where
light snow, freezing rain/drizzle, and rain could all occur this
morning before changing to mainly rain towards midday as
temperatures warm above freezing. The potential for freezing
rain to mix in is due to a subtle nose of above-freezing
temperatures aloft in the atmospheric thermal profile. Overall,
any precipitation should be light with QPF amounts of 0.01-0.1",
trace up to 0.5" of snow, and patchy accumulations of a light
glaze of ice.

Cloud cover gradually clearing from southwest to northeast
throughout the day should allow most of the Northland to warm
into the 40s aside from some upper 30s in the tip of the
Arrowhead, and near 50F for far southern portions of the area.

One thing to watch this evening and tonight will be a signal for
downslope/katabatic winds along the North Shore as the low/cold
front push east of the area. This could produce a few hour
period of gusty northwest winds of 30-40 mph. Not expecting
Wind-Advisory level winds gusts (45+ mph) at this point, but
there is a 10-30% chance that could occur.

Sunday - Early Monday:

Mainly dry and mild for Sunday and early Monday as a surface and
upper-level ridge move over the region. High-resolution models
do show some modeled precipitation around or just north of the
International Border Sunday morning and afternoon, but dry air
in the low-levels of the atmosphere and a lack of support for
lift aloft should keep the Northland dry. Looks for widespread
highs both days in the 40s to around 50F, warmest south.

Monday Afternoon - Thanksgiving Day:

The main update to provide here is that while there is still
some uncertainty on low pressure tracks and that effect on when
rain will transition to snow and how much snow we will see,
global ensemble model guidance has been coming into better
agreement on an increasing trend in snowfall probabilities in
the Northland for the Tuesday - Thanksgiving timeframe.

Two upper-level features to keep an eye on will be a trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, that will deepen as
it crosses the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with most
guidance having it deepen to a closed upper-level low as it
moves into the northern Great Lakes late Tuesday/Wednesday. At
the same time, a cut-off upper-low west of Baja California today
will traverse the Four Corners and Front Range of the Rockies on
Sunday and Monday before ejecting northeast into the Great Lakes
on early to mid-Tuesday, eventually joining the upper-flow just
ahead of the deepening upper-low over the Upper Midwest. The
southern low should work to bring in some moisture originating
in the western Gulf, with parts of the Northland expected to see
PWATs approach 0.7-0.8" (95-98 percentile of climatology for
this time of year). That higher moisture does drop off a bit
into late Tuesday (PWATs down to 0.5 to 0.6) before decreasing
farther into Wednesday and Thursday. This should be sufficient
moisture given the strong synoptic forcing associated with these
systems to support widespread rainfall. It appears that the two
upper-lows will be interacting with each other in a way that
supports a surface low deepening as it moves northeast through
the Upper Midwest through the upper Great Lakes. Still some
uncertainty in how these lows track, but generally speaking it
has led to increasing probabilities of precipitation amounts,
both for rain and snow.

Mild temperatures on Monday and overnight lows into Tuesday
morning mostly above freezing should support light to moderate
rain as the primary precipitation type at onset as early as
Monday afternoon. Rain chances expand across the area into
Monday night and early Tuesday, with brief, localized heavy rain
at times. Through the whole event (Monday to Thursday), QPF from
rain/melted mixed precip would generally be in the 0.3-0.75"
range, though some locations along the North and South Shores
could see amounts approaching 1" given terrain and lake
enhancement. Areas where a likely TROWAL/banded precipitation
region on the northwest side of the surface low pressure center
track over could also see upwards of 1" of rain/melted mixed
precip. This region may still shift, but north-central Minnesota
is currently the most favored to see it.

As temperatures begin to drop from west to east starting
daytime Tuesday, rain should gradually mix with snow and then
change over to all snow Tuesday night into Wednesday as
temperatures drop below freezing. One caveat with regards to
precipitation late Tuesday/Tuesday night will be whether or not
a dry slot region moves into the Northland to the southern and
southwestern side of the surface low. This potential will be
highly influenced by where the surface low tracks as a dry slot
here would likely cut off precipitation for a time before wrap
around snow on the backside of the low would come into play.
However, areas northwest of the dry slot would also be in/near
the TROWAL/banded snow region, so those locations would be
likely to see heavier snow depending on where it sets up late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. The surface low should slowly
track far enough northeast late Wednesday into Thursday that the
remaining precipitation would be in the form of lighter,
fluffier snow as a much colder airmass moves into the region.
850-mb temperatures of -10C to -15C and northwest surface winds
could keep lake-effect/enhanced snow going into portions of the
South Shore as late as Friday depending on how much low-level
moisture hangs around. Some larger inland lakes in Minnesota--
which are still open water--could also get in on the lake-effect
snow action given the colder temperatures.

The latest probabilities for snow amounts and favored locations
for Tuesday - Thursday (as of this morning`s forecast) are as
follows:

 >= 1": 30-80%, highest in northern Minnesota and the South
        Shore.
 >= 3": 15-60%, highest along/north of Iron Range and in Iron
        Co, WI.
 >= 6": up to 20-40% in north-central Minnesota and along/north
        of the Iron Range. Up to 20-50% in Iron Co, WI.

There is a smaller subset of model ensemble members with much
more than 6" for Iron County (i.e. 10-12"+), which would depend
on the intensity of lake-effect/lake enhancement processes with
this system.

In addition to the precipitation, this tightly wound system
will bring gusty winds with it as it passes through the region.
While it will be breezy from Tuesday through Thanksgiving Day,
the strongest gusts would be late Tuesday and Wednesday. As of
now, there is a 10-30% chance for wind gusts of 35+ mph on
Wednesday, which could lead to blowing snow and reduced
visibility depending on how much snow will have fallen and if
snow is still ongoing.

Next Weekend:

Snow that falls is likely to stick around on the ground as
temperatures (high and low) remain below freezing Thursday into
next weekend, with a cold pattern sticking around into early
December. Model depictions of the upper-level weather pattern
diverge next weekend, but there is the possibility for the
active weather pattern to continue with another system as early
as next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Some scattered, light rain/freezing rain/snow showers with low
pressure skirting the Canadian Border has largely remained north
of INL. However, as the morning progresses, INL could still see
some VCSH or occasional light wintry mix through around 16Z with
a temperature around freezing. Minimal accumulations expected.
MVFR ceilings have already started at INL and should persist
through most of the day (60-70% chance). Other terminals remain VFR,
though some scattered cloud bases around 2500 to 3000 ft will
be possible at HIB/DLH. Some LLWS is possible through 15Z at DLH
and HYR before surface winds increase. Winds increase this
morning and shift to westerly as by late morning to afternoon,
with daytime to early evening gusts of 15-21 kt before weakening
again this evening. Additional LLWS is possible at DLH/HIB/HYR
this evening and tonight underneath a 40-45 kt 850 mb jet.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 356 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Some light rain or mixed precipitation is possible for the
North Shore this morning into early afternoon. Light southerly
winds early this morning increase out of the southwest today and
then turn westerly behind a cold front this evening into early
Sunday morning. Gusts this afternoon into early Sunday morning
could approach 20 to 30 kt, strongest in the Apostle Islands and
portions of the North Shore along and north of Silver Bay.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect for this afternoon into
early Sunday. Additionally, there is a 20-40% chance for gale-
force wind gusts northeast of Silver Bay due to expected
downslope/katabatic winds along the North Shore spreading out a
couple miles into the nearshore waters. Winds weaken on Sunday
as they slowly back to the southwest.

Attention turns to an active weather system that will move
through Monday through Thursday next week. Windy conditions are
likely Tuesday through Thursday. Gales may be possible at times.
This system will also bring rain on Monday into Tuesday, a
rain/snow transition late Tuesday, and then to snow for
Wednesday that will gradually taper off into Thursday for most
of western Lake Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Sunday for LSZ121-146>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM CST
     Sunday for LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CST
     Sunday for LSZ143>145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein