557
FXUS63 KDLH 272117
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
317 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of scattered snow showers with blustery northwest winds
continue through this afternoon, diminishing through the evening and
overnight. Localized visibility reductions and brief accumulations
are expected.

- Light lake effect snow continues for Iron County, but may finally
come to an end through the day Friday with drier air cutting off
snowfall production.

- Next chance of snow through this weekend for areas from from
  Brainerd to Two Harbors and southeast, with the best chance
  (60%+) across NW WI. Locally higher amounts are possible for
  the South Shore.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Deep in the backside of yesterday`s low pressure, the Northland has
seen predominantly overcast skies with some scattered snow showers
this afternoon, partially enhanced in some places by large inland
lakes. These showers have been able to drop visibilities as low as a
1/2 mile at times with quick minor snow accumulations. The moisture
and lift supporting this activity should pull out of the Northland
this evening and overnight into Friday, bringing much of the
precipitation to an end. Our persistent lake effect snow for Iron
County could continue into Friday midday to afternoon, but even that
should wane into Friday evening as drier air moves in and winds
begin to shift. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Iron
County but will likely be allowed to expire at 6pm as remaining
amounts should be fairly light.

Following about 12 hours of very subtle ridging and high pressure
Friday evening into Saturday morning, a wide trough makes its way
into the Central Plains Saturday, on track to bring heavy snow to
areas to our south. However, there is no blocking high pressure to
our north with this system and the PWAT plume does partially reach
up into the Northland with some marginal synoptic lift. This is
expected to lead to at least light snowfall accumulations for
southern portions of the CWA with a greater than 20% chance of 2"+
for areas from Brainerd to Two Harbors and southeast. Much of NW WI
has a 50-80% chance for the same amount. Winds off Lake Superior
briefly turn northeast on Saturday, which could prime areas around
the head of the lake for some snowfall, before those winds turn
northwest once again bringing some localized higher amounts to the
South Shore. At this point, current amounts are not headline worthy,
but depending on future trends some Winter Weather Advisories may be
needed.

Even colder air is expected to be pulled into the Northland behind
this system bringing highs in the teens and lows below zero for the
beginning of the work week. Through next week, global models are in
decent agreement that we`ll remain under northwest flow with a low
over Hudson Bay. This could spit off some little shortwaves that
have the potential to bring some clipper type systems to the
Northland with additional light snow accumulations.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1108 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Primarily MVFR ceilings across the area will persist through much of
the TAF period for HIB and HYR. At DLH, downsloping flow along the
North Shore could lead to occasionally clearing skies near the
terminal. At BRD, VFR ceilings should work in through this afternoon
with skies clearing through the evening. At INL, overcast VFR
conditions should become predominant today, but there is a 20 to 30
percent chance some pockets of MVFR occasionally impact the
terminal. Some light snow across northern MN and NW WI could impact
DLH and HYR but significant visibility reductions are not expected.
Strong northwest winds with gusts of 20-30 knots should die down
through the evening at all terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 315 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Brisk northwest winds continue across Western Lake Superior this
evening and into Friday morning, slowly weakening. Along portions of
the North Shore, winds have been very strong, gusting upwards of 35-
40knots and a Gale Warning remains in effect. Little to no model
data support this high of winds, so uncertainty is high on when
gales will truly end, but based on observations so far today have
extended the Gale Warning through 9pm for now. Through the day
Friday, any lingering warning and advisories should be able to drop
off as winds diminish.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-143-
     146>148-150.
     Gale Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>142.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens