989
FXUS63 KDLH 131124
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
524 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to warm into the weekend with dry sunny
  weather today and tomorrow.

- A system could bring light precipitation on Saturday. Mostly
  rain expected, with a few flakes possible in the evening.
  Strong winds will accompany this system as well.

- Temperatures return closer to normal next week and more slight
  chances for precipitation the mid week (<30%).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A ridge will be moving over the Northland today with a warm air
mass bringing temperatures up to 20 degrees above normal.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the upper 40s and
lower 50s. Additionally, conditions will be dry and sunny under
this ridge today.

Early Saturday, a large upper level low will extend down into
the Northern Plains and a cold front will move northwest to
southeast. Models are still on either end of whether there will
be just enough forcing and moisture to squeeze out some
precipitation or if most of the CWA will remain dry. The best
chances for showers are around Lake Superior (20-30%). Any
precipitation we do see will mainly fall as rain due to the warm
temperatures from the previous couple days. However, if there
are a few showers that linger into the evening, a few flakes
could fall within the rain as well. Accumulations are expected
to be light - rain less than 0.1" and little to no accumulation
of snow. Tight pressure gradients with the arrival of this
system will also lead to an increase in winds, particularly on
the back side of the cold front on Saturday. Most will see winds
up to 30 mph, but areas along the North Shore could see
katabatic winds enhance the wind speeds up to 40 mph Saturday
evening.

Temperatures decrease closer to normal after the cold front
passage with highs returning to the 30s. The next chance for
precipitation will be mid week with a switch to southerly flow
and WAA. Global models differ on when the precipitation arrives,
but show a good signal of getting precipitation at some point.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 522 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Skies
will be clear save for some high clouds moving across BRD this
morning. Winds have decreased and should remain below 15 kts for
the remainder of the TAF period, becoming light and variable
tomorrow afternoon for all terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 102 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Westerly winds decrease this morning as the high pressure system
moves over western Lake Superior. Saturday, a cold front will
move through and increase winds out of the northwest once again.
Wind gusts up to 30 kts are expected, with katabatic winds along
the North Shore and strong fetch winds over the Apostle
Islands leading to a 10-30% chance for gales for those areas.
Winds will decrease again as the system departs throughout the
day Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ140-141-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     LSZ142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML