820
FXUS63 KDLH 210921
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
321 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very light snow with trace to no accumulations possible in the
  tip of the Arrowhead through mid-morning.

- Additional chances for a very light snow/rain mix near the
  International Border and in the tip of the Arrowhead tonight
  through Saturday morning. Also can`t rule out a 10-20% chance
  for some freezing rain to mix in, too. Up to a couple tenths
  of an inch of snow and a very thin glaze of ice are possible.

- After a warm weekend and early next week, a pattern shift to
  colder, winter-like regime will occur starting late Tuesday.

- The potential for widespread precipitation from late Monday
  into the middle of next week is increasing, but there are
  still mixed signals regarding when and how much snow will
  accompany this precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today - This Weekend:

A weak surface trough/secondary cold front is moving through
during the current overnight hours into this morning. Some
remnant low-level moisture in the tip of the Arrowhead could be
just enough to produce some very light snow/flurries (20-30%
chance) in far northeastern St. Louis, northern Lake, and Cook
counties during the early to mid morning hours. Most of this
precipitation should stay north of the International Border as
seen on Canadian radar, but can`t rule out a trace of snow
accumulations in spots for the aforementioned areas if snow does
occur.

Otherwise, mostly dry weather sets up for today into this
weekend with high pressure overhead both today and Sunday.
Nestled between the two rounds of high pressure will be the
passage of a weak cold front approaching from our northwest and
some weak shortwave energy aloft accompanying it tonight into
Saturday. Moisture is above average with this system but not
unusually high, with PWATs of 0.5-0.6" on par with the 80-90th
percentile of climatology for late November. The initial dry air
in the low-levels--especially in southern portions of the area--and
quick window of time for favorable synoptic forcing with this
system should keep precipitation chances fairly limited.
Generally looking at a 20-40% for a snow/rain mix centered
along the Borderlands into Lake and Cook counties later tonight
into Saturday morning before exiting east Saturday afternoon,
with snow accumulations up to 0.1-0.2". There will also be the
presence of a weak warm nose aloft late tonight into early/mid
Saturday morning that, if sufficiently deep enough, could cause
some light freezing rain to mix in, as well. The potential for
any freezing rain is 20% or less, with any accumulations likely
a light glaze at best.

Aside from more seasonal high temperatures in the low/mid 30s
north to low 40s south today, high temperatures for this
weekend should be 5-15 degrees above normal for late November,
ranging from around 40F in the tip of the Arrowhead to upper
40s/near 50F in the Brainerd Lakes to northwest Wisconsin.

Next Week:

The main changes to the forecast over the last 24 hours has
been an increasing in the potential for widespread
precipitation and a shift earlier in the start time for
precipitation to Monday afternoon/evening.

Confidence in a stark transition to more winter-like
temperatures remains high starting late Tuesday and persisting
into early December. Monday into early Tuesday starts out with
above normal temperatures as southerly flow on the back side of
Sunday`s high pressure and underneath a ridge aloft keeps the
warm airmass in place to start the week. Highs on Monday in the
40s to around 50F are expected, with lows cooling off into the
low to mid 30s by early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be a
transition day with highs in the 30s in Minnesota and low/mid
40s in Wisconsin before temperatures drop below normal
Wednesday (highs in the 20s to around 30F) and onwards (highs in
the 20s) through at least the Thanksgiving weekend and likely
into early December.

Global ensemble models have been coming into better agreement on
the likelihood of widespread precipitation during the Monday
afternoon into mid-week timeframe, with pretty much all
individual ensemble members now showing precipitation. With
that said, uncertainty remains regarding the track of a
trough/low aloft originating in the Pacific Northwest this
weekend as it moves east and deepens through the first half of
next week. At the same time, a cut off low over Baja California
into the Four Corners region Saturday and Sunday is forecast to
eject northeast through the Rockies and central Plains and then
open up into a trough and track through somewhere in the Great
Lakes on Tuesday, possibly as far north as Lake Superior and as
far south as the lower Great Lakes. The resulting uncertainty in
the upper-level trough/low tracks will also directly influence
the surface low pressure systems associated with them. There is
likely to be interaction between the two systems, but the track
of the southern system in particular will dictate how much
moisture can be brought north into the Upper Midwest given some
fetch of Gulf moisture. The track of the northern system and how
quickly it deepens would moreso influence where deformation snow
banding on the northwest side of the surface low pressure would
set up: a more northerly track of the surface low would place
heavier snow north and west of the Northland, while a surface low
track through or just southeast of the Northland would favor a
better potential for banded snow to set up somewhere in the
area. Still a bit too early to determine exactly how these
features will form and move, so confidence in primary
precipitation types and amounts remains lower.

With that said, the general pattern and warmer air to start the
week would favor precipitation beginning as all rain Monday
afternoon into early Tuesday before the push of colder air would
lead to a west to east transition to a rain/snow mix Tuesday
afternoon and evening, and then all snow for Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Still some variance on when precipitation would come
to an end on Wednesday or early Thursday. In fact, there are
even some deterministic and individual ensemble model solutions
with a more northerly surface low track for the northern system
that could place the Northland in the dry slot region late
Tuesday/early Wednesday which would also affect precip/snowfall
amounts if that solution were to occur. Still a lot to sort out
on the precipitation side of things for the mid-week
Thanksgiving travel timeframe. For context, ensemble
probabilities of appreciable snow for the Northland have
increased, highlighted by NBM 72-hour snow probabilities from
the 06Z 11/21 model suite valid for 6 PM Monday - 6 PM Thursday
of:

 >= 1": 25-60%, highest in northern Minnesota and Iron Co, WI.
 >= 4": 10-45%, highest along/north of Iron Range and in Iron
        Co, WI.
 >= 6": 5-30%, highest north of the Iron Range and in Iron Co,
        WI.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

SCT to BKN MVFR cloud bases with some scattering stratus at HYR
through 07-08Z, then expect clear skies there the rest of the
overnight into morning hours. Some MVFR ceilings move into INL
from the northwest starting around 08-10Z and spread southeast
with time this morning. The potential for MVFR ceilings to reach
as far south as HIB and DLH is less than 50% for now, so have
kept FEW025 to SCT025 mention for those locations for now. This
MVFR stratus does eventually scatter out this afternoon. Do not
expect any light snow showers with these clouds as any trace
snow chances remain northeast of the terminals in the tip of the
Minnesota Arrowhead. Outside of these MVFR ceiling areas,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period with
light northwest winds becoming southerly Friday evening.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Northwesterly winds gusts to 20-25 knots are forecast to
continue in the Outer Apostle Islands and from Grand Marais to
Grand Portage into mid-morning today, while wave heights of 3-5
feet linger until midday for the Outer Apostle Islands. Small
Craft Advisories are in effect through this morning for the
aforementioned locations. Winds decrease this afternoon and
evening before quickly shifting southwesterly late tonight into
Saturday, with gusts on Saturday of 15-20 kt turning more WNW on
Saturday evening and night. Southwest winds again on Sunday with
gusts of 15 kt or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ140.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rothstein
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein