


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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365 FXUS63 KDLH 162331 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers continue for this afternoon and tonight, but rainfall will be minimal outside of the Arrowhead. - Warm temperatures for Friday with another chance for showers. - Periodic chances for rainfall will be seen through the remainder of the forecast period with overall cooling temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure was centered just east of Lake Superior early this afternoon with low pressure over northern South Dakota. A warm front extended eastward from this low into southwestern Minnesota and then turned southward into central Iowa and northeastern Missouri. Large scale ascent ahead of this warm front was resulting in cloudy skies and areas of showers along the International Border along with some isolated showers elsewhere across Minnesota. Isolated showers will continue this afternoon and tonight as the warm front moves northward. CAMs are showing an uptick in this activity for this evening into tonight with showers becoming more scattered. An isolated rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out with some marginal instability in place. Additional rainfall for this afternoon and tonight will generally be around a tenth of an inch or less with higher amounts possible north and east of the Iron Range where 0.25 to 0.75 inches will be possible with perhaps values closer to an inch near the tip of the Arrowhead. Most of this rainfall will fall this afternoon. Highs will range from the lower 50s in the Arrowhead to the middle 60s in the Brainerd Lakes area with southerly flow bringing warmer air into the region. As the low occludes and moves out of the Dakotas and into Manitoba Friday, a cold front will work across the Northland through the day. Temperatures ahead of the front will surge into the 60s and lower 70s, but this could be tempered if the cold front moves through quicker than expected. A line of broken showers will likely accompany the front as it moves through as well, but rainfall amounts will be under a tenth of an inch. Saturday into Sunday will see a longwave trough move from the Plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley with a surface low developing in the Central Plains and lifting northeastward across lower Michigan into Ontario Sunday. The latest model runs have shifted this system a bit more to the east with only the GFS really having any impact on the Northland in the form of some showers Saturday into Sunday morning, mainly across northwest Wisconsin. Cooler air will be filtering into the region as well for the weekend with highs ranging from the middle 50s near International Falls Saturday to the middle 60s in northwest Wisconsin with widespread 50s for Sunday. Weak ridging will move through for Sunday night before rain chances return for Monday as an upper trough/upper low move along the International Border. The GFS is much further south with the low whereas the ECMWF keeps the low well to our north across northwest Ontario and brings a cold front through region. Chances for showers will then linger into midweek with this system being slow to clear out and the potential for another clipper behind it. Temperatures will climb back into the middle 50s to middle 60s on Monday before cooling into the 40s and 50s heading into midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Southerly flow across the region continues to promote warm air advection and scattered rain showers. This evening the low level jet will ramp up leading to widespread low level wind shear concerns. This feature may also support some thunderstorms developing across northern MN. Rain chances and low ceilings are expected to linger through most of the forecast period. A cold front sweeping in from the west will bring drier air tomorrow afternoon and evening clearing up the lingering rain and raising ceiling heights. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Southeast to southerly winds will continue for tonight into Friday morning at around 5 to 15 knots. A cold front will move across western Lake Superior Friday and turn winds southwesterly at 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots Friday afternoon into Friday night before diminishing. These winds will generate waves of 3 to 7 feet along the North Shore north of Grand Marais. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore waters starting tonight and continuing into Friday night. Winds will remain westerly for Saturday at around 10 to 20 knots. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121- 141>147-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LSZ148. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...Britt MARINE...BJH