367
FXUS63 KDLH 021934
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
134 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is expected tonight. Most places less than an inch, but
up to 2-3 inches in northern Iron County.

- A cold and blustery Wednesday followed by below-zero low
temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Wind chills as
low as -20 to -25 are expected and localized -30 values are possible.

- Cold weather with intermittent light snow chances are expected
  for the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Southwesterly flow with warm air advection continues this afternoon
ahead of a cold front that will pass through tonight. We`ve had some
light fog and flurries with this air mass, and that is expected to
transition more into light snow going into this afternoon and evening
from northwest to southeast as the cold front quickly passes
through. Not much has changed with this update as far as
snowfall amounts; just a very tiny nudge upward in QPF and
resultant snowfall amounts. There won`t be much moisture to
work with and the front will pass by so quickly that most places
will pick up a dusting to around an inch. The best lift will be
over the Arrowhead and into ~Iron County, so some locally
higher amounts are possible there. Perhaps up to 2" around Grand
Marais and to around 3" around Hurley (HREF probabilities are
~50% for 3" or more there).

Winds become blustery quickly following the cold front and plenty of
much colder (and drier) air will move in from the northwest for
Wednesday. For most places, Wednesday`s highs will probably happen
at midnight with temperatures roughly remaining steady in the single
digits to teens above zero in the afternoon. There is some question
about lingering snow showers in the post-cold frontal cold air
advection regime. I kept some flurries through the night and into
the morning, but ending after that. Several CAMs hint at some lake-
effect snow bands forming off the larger lakes, and the instability
will certainly be there for that with the cold air moving in. Dry
air moving in may reduce chances for this along with ice cover
increasing on these lakes. Some light accumulations downwind of the
large lakes can`t be ruled out, but it shouldn`t be much. It
will be these places where around an inch or perhaps very
slightly higher amounts may be possible when all is said and
done on Wednesday.

Attention then turns to the cold night expected Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as high pressure passes by to our south and the
coldest air settles over us. At this time, it`s still looking like
most places will be just a bit warmer than criteria to warrant Cold
Weather Advisories given that we may have some wind that could keep
temperatures from falling colder than they otherwise could. If winds
end up being less, temperatures could fall a bit lower than
currently forecast, though we would have less of a wind chill to
worry about. All-in-all, a cold Thursday morning is expected and
it`s possible that some of the usual cold spots may see some wind
chills briefly reaching down to -25 to -30.

A west-northwest flow pattern is looking to stick around for the
foreseeable future. Another clipper and cold front could arrive
Thursday night and bring another round of light snow. There
could be several more chances for that going into the weekend
and early next week. Some more potent shortwaves may be possible
next week, bringing more of the same but possibly with some
slightly higher snow accumulations if the trend right now
remains the same.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Predominantly MVFR/IFR ceilings at this hour with some
MVFR visibilities (that continue to improve towards VFR) with
some light fog and snow flurries. There is a pocket of low-level
clearing around BRD, where VFR conditions can be expected for
several hours this afternoon. Then, a cold front with light snow
is expected to pass through tonight. Expect some ceiling and
visibility reductions to MVFR/IFR as the wave of snow passes
through. Winds switch to northwesterly and will become blustery
for Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Breezy southwest winds will continue this afternoon and evening
ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to 25 kt are expected at times,
and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. A very brief lull in
winds is expected this evening before the cold front passes
through, then winds are expected to increase in speed from the
northwest. 25-30 kt gusts are expected Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Additional Small Craft Advisories will be needed, but we
will hold off on issuing those until after current ones expire.
There does remain a rather small (~10% chance) for gales mainly
in the outer Apostle Islands for a brief period Wednesday
evening, but more likely winds will remain just below that
criteria. Expect wave heights to increase up to around 7 ft
around the outer Apostle Islands as well.

Winds will switch to southwesterly again on Thursday with wind
gusts quickly increasing Thursday into Thursday night. Gales are
more likely (~40-60% chance), and wave heights around 6-8 ft
will be possible especially for parts of the North Shore. Wind
speeds are expected to decrease on Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS