251
FXUS63 KDMX 131132
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
532 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloud cover tonight may hinder Aurora viewing in some areas.

- Warm and dry weather continues for the rest of this week with
highs in the 50s, reaching the 60s Friday and Saturday.

- Next chances for precipitation forecasted to arrive early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Upper-level troughing continues to slide eastward across the eastern
Great Lakes region with broad ridging consuming much of the western
CONUS. For the remainder of today, the eastern periphery of this
ridge is progged over northeastern Iowa. RAP forecast soundings have
indicated a few hours of coupling with a 850-700mb 35-40kt LLJ
aloft. Therefore nudged wind speed and gusts up by blending in some
NBM90th percentile to reflect forecast trends and current obs. Areas
mainly east of a line from Mason City southeast to Waterloo could
see gusts approaching 25-30 mph prior to sunset. Wind speeds should
decrease as the ridge continues eastward overnight. Temperatures
tonight will range in the low to mid-30s.

Mid-level thermal ridging will continue moving eastward and forcing
NW`ly flow to back in the westerly direction this evening. This will
add some moisture aloft and allow for upper-level cloud development
which as already started advecting in across western Iowa this
afternoon. Its expected for cloud cover to become much more
prevalent through the evening hours into tonight. So although it
wont be completely overcast for Aurora viewing, some areas
especially north of I-80 could have a more difficult time catching
breaks within the clouds.

Thursday through this weekend`s forecast continues to look tranquil
and warm. Temperatures will remain well above normal in the 50s and
60s and lows in the 40s and 50s. We are still keeping an eye on our
next approaching system which continues to trend slower and slower
with each run of the guidance suite. The NBM handles this slowing
trend well by holding off on advertising any appreciable PoPs until
early next week. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with only
high ceilings around FL200-250. WNW winds will diminish toward
sunset and become light and variable overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions to prevail. A stray gust to around 18kts possible
for a short window between 17 and 20z. Monitoring the potential
for fog/stratus development towards the end of the TAF period
(near 12z), potentially impacting KDSM to start. Confidence not
high enough to put in the TAF.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Jimenez