380
FXUS63 KDTX 141732
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1232 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warm up through Saturday with highs climbing well above
normal into the 60s.

- Cold front Saturday brings rain chances late in the day and a
sharp drop in temperatures Saturday night.

- Breezy conditions of 30 to 40 mph possible both Saturday and
Sunday.

- Near normal temperatures expected through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry low level airmass and ceiling free skies below 5000 feet will
hold through the evening hours. Persistent south-southwest flow will
lead to an increase in low level moisture/surface dew pts, which
will eventually lead to developing low clouds over southeast
Michigan. Difficult forecast determining the exact hour when low clouds
arrive and subsequent ceiling height, as both IFR and MVFR are in
play. Will favor just Low MVFR in the 12-16z window. Otherwise, a
low VFR deck (noted upstream over the Ohio Valley) spreads in
overnight and early Saturday morning. Pockets of very light rain
showers are possible as low level convergence from approaching cold
front arrives, but right now the chance looks too low to include in
tafs through 18z. Strong southwest low level jet tracks through
Saturday morning, and some of the stronger winds, gusting around 25
knots are expected at the surface by afternoon.


DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight through Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

DISCUSSION...

Elevated portion of a warm front passing through overnight brought a
band of mid clouds but not before temps were able to drop quite
efficiently under clear skies and high pressure with lows dropping
into the mid 20s fairly widespread. Clouds will halt the drop the
rest of the overnight with upper 30s noted upstream under the cloud
deck. The surface front still resides well to our west, just now
beginning to reach the MS River. Surface ridge will hold through
most of the day with clearing skies, but still some patches of mid
cloud due to warm air advection aloft. Highs should get slightly
higher than Thursday, into the mid 50s. Longwave ridge axis looks to
fold over/pass to the east later this evening pushing the warm front
up through the area early tonight while the parent low reaches
central Canada. This will start the lower level southern flow warm
advection keeping lows Friday night around 40.

Pattern heading into Saturday isn`t the cleanest as the upper trough
and surface reflection over Central Canada begins to feel the
effects of a strong southeastward diving 130 knot jet which looks to
barrel right through the trough and over lower MI creating new area
of height falls along the draped cold front over northern MI. This
elongates the trough into western Quebec with the left exit region
located mainly to our NE Saturday evening into the overnight. This
tries to keep the bulk of the rainfall production out of SE MI. But
there will be a strong low level jet up to around 45 knots lifting
through in the warm sector Saturday resulting in gusts winds to
around 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon. There will be a slight chance
of pops due to moisture advection raising PWATs to around 1 inch
with the cold front approaching. There will be strong mid level
lapse rates but also a solid capping inversion with a warm nose
around 800 mb reaching near 10C. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s
which is some 10-15 degrees above normal for mid Nov.

Cold front passes Saturday evening which will quickly put an end to
the warm up as the tight northwesterly gradient brings air
originating from north central Canada through the northern and
eastern Great Lakes. 850mb temps fall to around -6 to -8C which will
knock high temps back down into the low 40s for Sunday, which will
be 5-10 degrees below normal. Wide swath of 850mb winds around 35
knots will keep gusty winds around on Sunday, but a bit lower than
Saturday, closer to 25-35 mph. Models are showing the lake effect
activating again with direction keeping the main Lake Superior to
Lake Huron band off shore to our east. There is also hints of the
Superior to Michigan band trying to reach into the Saginaw Valley or
northern Thumb. So not out of the question to get some rain/snow or
just snow showers.

Split flow pattern looks to develop early in the week with the
southern stream trying to nose up into southern MI. Surface high
over the region will attempt to keep the system, becoming strung out
west to east, south of the area but we could get clipped by elevated
portions of the front Tuesday-Wednesday. Still alot of time to try
to resolve this system.

MARINE...

Influence of high pressure lingers through the day before departing
east late Friday night ahead of the next broad low lifting over
northern Ontario towards the Hudson Bay. This system`s cold front
swings over the Great Lakes daytime Saturday with models still
keying in on an area of secondary low pressure circulation
developing along this boundary near the northernmost Lake Huron
shoreline before diving towards far eastern Lake Ontario. Winds
organize out of the south-southeast initially early Saturday morning
before steadily rotating toward the southwest through the first half
of the day. Significantly milder air is drawn into the central Great
Lakes during this timeframe reducing overlake thermal instability
which is expected to limit peak gusts aob 25kts.

Cold frontal passage occurs late afternoon-evening Saturday
shifting winds to the northwest as colder air rapidly drives south
out of northern Canada as the upper trough settles across the Great
Lakes. Initial chances (~70%) for NW gales arrive by late Saturday
evening/overnight, especially over northern Lake Huron, though these
still carry some dependence on the strength of the aforementioned
secondary low over southern Ontario. Core of the airmass arrives
overhead by Sunday which still looks supportive of gales with
probabilities to exceed 34kts (~70%) over northern Lake Huron.
Probabilities over southern Lake Huron are lower (~60% Saturday
night and ~40% Sunday). As a result, Gale Watches have been issued
for all but far southern Lake Huron Saturday evening through Sunday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for
     LHZ361>363.

     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for LHZ421-
     422-441-462-463.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KDK


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