


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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866 FXUS63 KDVN 162334 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 634 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...Updated for 00z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry forecast overnight into Friday as temperatures rise into the upper 70s to 80s. - Precipitation returns to the area Friday night into Sunday AM bringing with it chances rain and even some thunder. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Warm sector has been slow to move into the area today as easterly winds off of Lake Michigan froze the boundary in place longer than guidance had suggested. This led to slightly cooler temps and slightly longer precip chances across the area. Tonight as the upper level wave pulls north of the area, the warm sector is expected to advance further north, bringing heat and humidity back to the area for tomorrow. Highs in the upper 70s and low 80s are expected ahead of another short wave. Looking at model soundings and RH fields, it is clear that we will likely remain dry through the entire short term as low level dry air will limit precip chances. If robust showers develop, we may see some light rain prior to 00z. Confidence in this occurring is low and is denoted by the schc pops across the western CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 As has been messaged over the last few days, the long awaited wave that develops over the Rockies finally starts to emerge over the Central Plains. Ahead of this, strong warm advection will lead to warm and moist air being pumped into the Upper Midwest. A leading wave will eject off of the Rockies late Friday into Saturday, passing northeast through the Upper Midwest. This will push the ridge east of the area Friday night into Saturday, dragging a cold front through the area on Saturday. Latest runs are struggling with the timing of this cold front the 06z GFS had the cold front just entering the western CWA around 0z to 03z on Sunday. The 12z has speed this up and now has the boundary just west of the river at that time. Looking at CAPE and shear, if a storm were to develop ahead of this front in the afternoon, strong to severe storms could not be ruled out. Deep layer shear is sufficient for updraft organization and while CAPE is low, there is decent curvature in the low level hodograph as well. We will need to watch this closely going forward as sneaker strong to severe environment may set up. Some of the CAMs have convection in this area later during the day on Saturday. Beyond the weekend, the pattern looks to remain relatively active. Thus, temperatures will be up and down through the upcoming work week. Too soon to pinpoint when the next best chance for precipitation will be beyond Friday night and Saturday, but there are sporadic low-end chances through next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Winds are the main focus and only concern for the TAF period. The initial concern will be with LLWS as winds increase to around 40 kt in the 1-2kft agl layer from SSW after 06z through 12z, particularly west of the Mississippi River and in the vicinity of KCID/KDBQ. SSE surface winds will remain around 10 kt tonight with sporadic higher gusts of 15-20 kt possible late evening and overnight, but I`m not anticipating these to be persistent and therefore I have added mention of LLWS at KCID and KDBQ. On Friday, mixing of higher winds just off the surface and a tightening pressure gradient will lead to breezy/windy conditions with SSW winds becoming sustained at 14-20 kt with gusts 22-30 kt. Mainly just some higher level cloudiness is expected during the period. Some upper level smoke is also a possibility on Friday being advected northward from the Lower Mississippi Valley, but no impacts are expected for general aviation. Just beyond the end of the TAF period (mid-late Friday evening into early Saturday morning) we`re expecting shower and storm chances (40-60%+) to develop across the terminals, as a weak cold front approaches. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gibbs LONG TERM...Gibbs AVIATION...McClure