996
FXUS63 KDVN 241135
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
535 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds, fog and light rain/drizzle moving up across the area
  today and tonight, still seasonably mild through Tuesday.

- Strong cold front still on track to sweep through the area Tuesday
  evening bringing much colder temperatures for the mid to late
  week. Strong winds behind this front too for Tuesday night
  into Wednesday.

- Potential winter system still there for late Friday into
  Saturday, with additional systems possible beyond that in a
  busy looking weather pattern. Model variance still making for
  much uncertainty with these late week and weekend systems
  however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today...Low stratus and fog deck seeping northward, but slower than
most models are handling it especially getting into the IL side. But
CAM progged increase south to southwesterly boundary layer(BL) flow
should eventually slosh it toward those areas as the morning
progresses. Thus may have to take a chance and expand the fog
advisory northeastward even though it may still be a few hours for
the advection fog to arrive. patchy light rain and drizzle will
increase acrs the area this afternoon and tonight as the upstream
wave we have been talking about the past few days moves acrs
overhead in a weakening fashion. Even though fcst soundings saturate
by tonight with PWATs of 0.70 to 0.90 of an inch, model QPF
continues to trend down as they temper down the upper wave strength
and the local area gets under the split flow precip shadow some.
Thus most areas look now to get a few hundredths to a tenth of an
inch of rain by Tue morning, although there still appears that there
could be a swath of 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch acrs the southern CWA
streaming up acrs to the Chicago area. With all this grunge today,
have cut back high temps to the upper 40s to low 50s for most areas.

Tonight...Low clouds, occasional light rain and drizzle continue
with sfc temps holding up in the 40s. Where the rain and drizzle let
up, expect areas of fog to form from mid evening into Tuesday
morning. Uncertain on extent of the dense fog potential tonight, but
there could be some and will mention in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...Tuesday still appears to be a mild pre-
frontal day, but how warm to go depends on the low cloud cover and
fog getting trapped under an inversion and not clearing until a
strong cold front sweeps through the area later Tue evening. Will go
with low to mid 50s for now but that may be a bit optimistic. Back
to the front Tue evening, model ensembles suggest a tight baroclinic
surge and cyclonic pressure gradient surging acrs the DVN CWA Tue
evening from west-to-east. This FROPA process likley to kick up some
light precip along it and it will probably be rain. This rain will
probably sweep eastward before enough top-down cooling occurs to
support snow, bu then there may be some wrap around flurries or
light snow showers along the Hwy 20 Corridor after midnight and into
Wed morning. The big thing though for Tue night will be the strong
blustery winds ushering much colder air acrs the region, with model
blend suggesting double digit negative H85 temps into the
northwestern CWA by 12z Wed. The west to northwest winds may gust
close to advisory criteria Tue night, and may reach advisory levels
in the daytime mixing on Wed. Highs held mainly in the 30s on Wed
with wind chills in the 20s or even upper teens.

Thursday through Sunday...Medium range ensembles still point to a
cold but dry Turkey Day. With the cold still slated to linger into
the weekend, the latest suite of ensemble indicated lower level
baroclinicity ribbon and thus the eventual storm track patterns
align west-northwest to east-southeast right acrs the area. Upper
jet support along and north of this thermal gradient, with signs of
some northern and southern stream wave energy phasing taking place
upstream acrs the plains by Sat morning. Several models and the
ensemble blend shunt a lead wave with elevated warm air advection
toward the area along the baroclinic track that may eventually
spread precip acrs the area by late Friday and especially Friday
night. Still early but there are signs of snow amounts worthy of
headlines or wintry mix mess to start off the weekend with. Then
will have to watch for additional hand back troffiness to eject out
additional wave up acrs or near the local area late in the weekend
and into early next week. But still much uncertainty with all
this due to the continued run-to-run model variance and swings.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low stratus and fog deck still creeping northward, and is slower
than progged earlier to engulf MLI and DBQ. CID and BRL already
affected by LIFR, and it should get to the other two sites over
the next few hours. Then the IFR to LIFR conditions expected to
continue much of the day with general south winds of 5-10 MPH.
Some category improvement may occur this afternoon from the
south on northward, but at the same time patchy light rain and
drizzle will be breaking out and will last into the early Tue
morning hours. IFR to LIFR clouds, fog and light rain off and on
for much of tonight...thus an overall a poor flying TAF cycle
with extended periods of IFR and LIFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ040-051-
     052-063>065-067-076>078-087>089-098-099.
     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ041-042-053-054-
     066-068.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ024>026-
     034-035.
     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ001-002-007-009-
     015>018.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12