725
FXUS63 KDVN 021730
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1130 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Few slick spots due to freezing fog possible prior to daybreak.

- There is a chance (30-50%) of light snow/flurries Wednesday,
  with falling temperatures in the afternoon and evening.

- Much colder Wednesday night through Thursday night, with 60-90%
  probabilities of below zero low temperatures each night.

- Active pattern returns this weekend and early next week, with
  several clippers moving through the Midwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Water vapor imagery early this morning and RAP analysis shows
the weak system that brought light 1-3 inch snow amounts to
areas generally south of an Iowa City to Freeport line
yesterday, has moved east of the CWA. In its place, a surface
ridge was analyzed overhead. GOES Nighttime Microphysics RGB
channel depicted an area of clear skies that allowed areas of
freezing fog to develop ahead of an eastward advancing sub 2kft
stratus deck. DOT road conditions particularly in IL and MO
still show partially covered to completely covered roads from
recent snow. In addition to this, a few slick spots due to
freezing fog will be possible before daybreak mainly in our IL
counties.

Low clouds this morning will take their time moving east over
the CWA. Tis the season where models really struggle with cloud
evolution and development. As a result, have lowered highs
slightly for today, with most areas now only reaching the low to
mid 20s. Using the time of arrival tool in AWIPS, the clouds
should reach the MS RVR by 3pm this afternoon. Return flow and
increasing southwest winds will keep temperatures mild
overnight, with readings only dropping into the upper
teens/lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A cold front will move through Wednesday morning, with a non-
diurnal temperature trend forecast (falling temperatures through
the day). 850mb temps in the -1 to -3C range at 6 am, will drop
into the -6 to -11C range by 6 pm. Calendar day highs will occur
in the morning and are forecast in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Forcing for ascent aided by a 130kt jet streak and mid level fgen
increasing behind the fropa will support light snow
showers/flurries. The latest 00z CAMs offer a varying degree of
solutions of how much coverage there will be with these snow
showers likely due to top down saturation timing. For these
reasons, have kept NBM loaded 30-50% PoPs for now and in any
case snowfall amounts are just a few tenths at this time.

Attention then turns to just how cold we will get Wednesday
night/Thursday night. 850mb progs are coming into better
agreement with a -9 to -11 C airmass overhead at 12z Thursday.
These temperatures which are below the 10th percentile per SPC
sounding climatology combined with a strong 1035 mb surface high
and relatively new snowpack, will bring us the coldest nights of
the season so far. Sub-zero lows are forecast and will be within
a few degrees of record lows for Dec 4th. See climate section
below for details. Coldest values should remain west over
central IA closer to the surface ridge axis. In addition,
northwest winds to drop wind chills at least into the teens
below zero. The 00z LREF (100 member ensemble) now shows 30-50%
probabilities of -20 degree wind chills for a few hours Thursday
morning, so cold weather headlines may be needed.

Looking further ahead, there will be a series of clippers that
move through the flow aloft late weekend and early next week
that could bring more chances of precipitation to the region.
Confidence on timing, coverage, and intensity of these systems
remains low this far out. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A deck of low stratus continues to slowly move out of the area,
with impacts largely remaining at MLI/DBQ. Within the next
hour, we will see this deck scatter out at CID/BRL. Those under
the clouds will continue to see cigs around 1000-1500 ft until
mid-afternoon, with a few areas still seeing <1000 ft cigs.
Otherwise, we will have a period of mostly clear skies prior to
this evening, when mid-high clouds move in. Winds will remain
out of the south-southwest around 10 KTs until a cold front
works through the area tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Record Cold High Temperatures:

December 4:
KMLI: 14 in 1991

Record Low Temperatures:

December 4:
KBRL: -3 in 1991
KCID: -5 in 2005
KDBQ: -6 in 1991
KMLI: -2 in 1991

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Gunkel
CLIMATE...Gross