122
FXUS63 KDVN 081113
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
513 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm system will bring the first snow to much of the area
  this afternoon/tonight. While the warm ground will lower any
  accumulations, there will be a 2-3 hour period at any one
  location of greatly reduced visibility from higher snowfall
  rates.

- A brief period of much colder than normal temperatures will be
  seen Sunday through Monday. Snow showers and flurries are
  possible on Sunday east of the Mississippi.

- A warming trend resulting in temperatures going above normal
  will be seen for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 236 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The next 24 hours will be interesting as the first snow of the
season will be seen across much of the area. While no winter
weather headlines are currently anticipated, a short notice
winter weather advisory later today cannot be ruled out if
observational trends support it.

Through mid-morning, dry conditions will be seen across the area
with rain moving into areas west of the Mississippi during the late
morning hours.

The afternoon and evening hours will be the most impactful in terms
of weather. A gradual rain/snow mix will develop during the first
half of the afternoon generally west of a Dubuque, IA to
Williamsburg, IA line. Where the forcing aloft is strongest some
localize areas could change over to all snow.

The late afternoon and evening hours will see a rapid change to a
mix or all snow. Progged ground temperatures are in the 40s so until
snowfall rates increase significantly, melting on contact will
initially occur for any snow.

Visibility output from some of the very short range models show a
consistent signal indicating snowfall rates potentially exceeding
1 inch per hour for a 2-3 hour time frame at any one location
mainly north of I-80. The most likely time frame for this to
occur is between 3 and 8 PM.

Right now snowfall amounts look to be a half inch or less on
elevated and grassy surfaces. Given the warm ground temperatures,
once snowfall rates drop under an inch per hour, the snow should
begin melting on the ground. There is a very real possibility of
very narrow localized bands of 1 to 2 inches of accumulation.
While these locations cannot be pinpointed ahead of time, based
on the trends with visibility the favored location would be
north of I-80 and potentially north of Highway 30.

After 9 PM tonight the precipitation will quickly end from west to
east with nearly all of the area dry by or shortly after midnight.
At the same time, winds will be on the increase as the low pulls
away from the area. However, since the snow that occurs will be
quite wet and likely melting, no drifting of snow is expected.

The large amount of heat stored in roads and bridges should result
in them being only wet for much of the event. If snowfall rates in
localized bands are high enough, brief slushy accumulations on
bridges may occur. The wind tonight will help in drying off roads
which should minimize any slick spots once road and bridge
temperatures drop below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 236 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Sunday/Sunday night
Assessment...A certainty (>99%) of colder than normal temperatures
with snow showers or flurries mainly east of the Mississippi.

Sunday into Sunday night the cold core upper low settles into the
western Great Lakes. Windy conditions and well below normal
temperatures will keep wind chills in the teens and 20s.

The combination of cold air aloft, cyclonic flow and disturbances
rotating around it puts snow showers and flurries on the docket. The
model consensus shows this with 20 percent chances for snow showers
and flurries for areas mainly east of the Mississippi.

Monday through Friday
Assessment...A certainty (>99%) of a warming trend

Colder than normal conditions will be seen on Monday due to the
proximity of the cold upper low as it slowly moves into the Ohio
Valley.

Starting Tuesday the warming trend will begin in earnest as an upper
level thermal ridge builds into the Midwest. Temperatures will be
near normal Tuesday and then trending above normal starting
Wednesday. Passing upper level disturbances will be marked by an
increase in cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 511 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Conditions will rapidly deteriorate to IFR after 18z/08 as the
next storm system arrives. There are internal signals from the
very high resolution models for a brief period of IFR/LIFR
conditions 21z/08-03z/09 across eastern Iowa and northern
Illinois during the highest snowfall rates. After 04z/09
conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR with winds gusting up to 20
knots as the system moves into the Ohio Valley and precipitation
ends.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08