


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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066 ACUS01 KWNS 180058 SWODY1 SPC AC 180056 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible this evening into late tonight from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. ...Central/southern Plains into the lower MO Valley... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) is in place this evening from parts of the southern Plains northeastward into the lower MO Valley and Upper Midwest, along/ahead of a weak, slow-moving cold front. An increase in storm coverage is expected this evening from eastern KS into northern MO and parts of the Upper Midwest, as a mid/upper-level trough moves across the region and a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. Effective shear of 40+ kt will support potential for organized convection, though storm intensity will tend to be limited by generally weak midlevel lapse rates. Isolated hail and localized damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, especially from eastern KS into western/northern MO, where instability will be greater compared to areas farther northeast. Farther south, storm coverage is expected to increase late tonight across parts of western/northern OK into southern KS, in response to a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the southern Rockies. Some cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates will maintain moderate MUCAPE through the night, while effective shear will remain sufficient for occasional storm organization. The strongest storms late tonight may become capable of producing isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 10/18/2025 $$