Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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066
ACUS01 KWNS 180058
SWODY1
SPC AC 180056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN OK...SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this evening into late tonight from the southern and
central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Central/southern Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak to locally moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) is in
place this evening from parts of the southern Plains northeastward
into the lower MO Valley and Upper Midwest, along/ahead of a weak,
slow-moving cold front. An increase in storm coverage is expected
this evening from eastern KS into northern MO and parts of the Upper
Midwest, as a mid/upper-level trough moves across the region and a
low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. Effective shear of 40+ kt
will support potential for organized convection, though storm
intensity will tend to be limited by generally weak midlevel lapse
rates. Isolated hail and localized damaging gusts will be possible
with the strongest storms, especially from eastern KS into
western/northern MO, where instability will be greater compared to
areas farther northeast.

Farther south, storm coverage is expected to increase late tonight
across parts of western/northern OK into southern KS, in response to
a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving across the southern
Rockies. Some cooling aloft and steepening of midlevel lapse rates
will maintain moderate MUCAPE through the night, while effective
shear will remain sufficient for occasional storm organization. The
strongest storms late tonight may become capable of producing
isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts.

..Dean.. 10/18/2025

$$