482
ACUS01 KWNS 211631
SWODY1
SPC AC 211629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MS/AL/TN/KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight
across parts of Mississippi and Tennessee into western and northern
Alabama and possibly southern Kentucky.

...MS/AL/TN/KY...
A strengthening of deep-layer flow will occur regionally in tandem
with the eastward progression of a low-amplitude shortwave trough
from the Lower Missouri Valley toward the Lower Ohio River Valley
tonight, with height falls remaining limited south of the Tennessee
Valley.

The more organized/sustained scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
will probably remain focused within the warm conveyor from
south-central Mississippi into Alabama. On the south-southwest
periphery of these storms, there will be a gradual northeastward
expansion of the effective warm sector while destabilization will
still remain weaker with eastward extent. Mid-level lapse rates are
weak, suggesting most updrafts will struggle to intensify. However,
strong deep-layer shear and moderately strong low-level shear/SRH,
particularly within the aforementioned corridor, could support a
couple of rotating storms capable of a tornado or damaging wind.

The primary surface cold front will move into this region tonight,
with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected to uptick
this evening across the Mid-South including western Tennessee and
northern Mississippi. Low-level winds are expected to veer by this
time, reducing low-level shear/SRH. Nevertheless, a low risk of a
tornado and/or gusty winds will exist.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/21/2025

$$