136
ACUS01 KWNS 091950
SWODY1
SPC AC 091949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINA
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
from Florida northeastward into the coastal Carolinas.

...20z Update...
The primary forecast change was a removal of hail/wind risk
probabilities across portions of eastern NC. Multiple HRRR/RRFS/MPAS
runs have shown a consistent signal for the possibility of strong
updrafts/UH across northern FL, southern GA, and southeastern SC
associated with the intensifying convection over the FL
Panhandle/southwest GA. This aligns with recent
observations/analyses that depict the best thermodynamic and
kinematic environment roughly along the GA/FL line. Recent KTLH
imagery suggests that some of this convection is already becoming
undercut by the advancing cold front, so while embedded supercells
will remain possible in the near term, the trend should be towards
more clustered/linear storm modes through the evening with an
attendant risk for isolated hail/wind. Further north across NC/VA,
more aggressive CAM solutions hint that a robust storm or two may
develop through early evening, but recent ACARS soundings sampled
very weak low to mid-level lapse rates that should modulate updraft
intensities despite a favorable wind profile. This, combined with a
lackluster signal in guidance, limits confidence in the overall
severe threat.

..Moore.. 11/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Nov 09 2025/

...FL into the coastal Carolinas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates significant amplification
of the large-scale eastern U.S. trough is occurring, and is due
primarily to a mid-level wave over the Mid South and an upstream
disturbance over the Upper Great Lakes.  A cyclone over the upper OH
Valley will migrate east towards Long Island during the period as an
attendant cold front sweeps east/southeast across the Southeast and
Gulf of America.

The airmass ahead of the front over the Carolina coastal plain into
FL will gradually warm/destabilize and yield upwards of 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE.  Forecast soundings show effective shear magnitudes
supporting organized storms.  However, tempered lapse rates (900-600
mb layer) in combination with front-parallel orientation of the
deep-layer shear and limited forcing for ascent ahead of the cold
front, will act to partially suppress greater storm coverage and the
overall severe risk given the magnitude of CAPE/shear.  Nonetheless,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of
the front (perhaps into one or two small clusters over the FL
Peninsula into southern GA) as it progresses across the region.  A
few damaging gusts are possible, particularly with any bowing
structures that stay ahead of the front.  Isolated hail is possible
as well, primarily in the FL/GA border vicinity where buoyancy is
greatest.

$$