345
ACUS01 KWNS 200059
SWODY1
SPC AC 200057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...AND ALSO ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ AND
SOUTHERN NM...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible across the southern
Plains into parts of the Ozarks through tonight. Large hail should
be the main threat, but occasional gusty winds and perhaps a tornado
may also occur.

...Southern Plains into parts of the Ozarks...
Widely scattered storms have developed this evening across parts of
west-central/northwest TX, generally near and to the south/east of a
surface boundary draped from central OK into southwest TX. Gradually
increasing ascent associated with an approaching mid/upper-level
trough will result in additional storm development through the
evening across parts of the southern Plains, where a seasonably
moist airmass is in place. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, moderate
deep-layer shear, and elongated mid/upper-level hodographs (as noted
on regional 00Z soundings) will support isolated supercells with a
threat of large hail and locally gusty winds. A brief tornado will
also be possible, especially across southwest TX later this evening,
where backed surface winds and a modest nocturnal low-level jet will
lead to some enhancement of effective SRH.

Overnight, a somewhat separate zone of primarily elevated storm
development is possible from northern OK/southeast KS into parts of
the Ozarks, within a low-level warm-advection regime. MUCAPE of
near/above 1000 J/kg and sufficient effective shear could support an
isolated hail threat with this activity.

...Southwest...
Multiple storm clusters may continue through much of the evening
into late tonight across parts of AZ/NM, in association with the
upper trough moving across the Southwest. MUCAPE will generally
remain weak (near or below 500 J/kg), but favorable shear and
cooling temperatures aloft could still support small to near-severe
hail and locally gusty winds with the strongest storms.

..Dean.. 11/20/2025

$$