129
ACUS01 KWNS 071958
SWODY1
SPC AC 071956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon
through the evening across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
A few marginally severe storms could also develop in the central
Gulf Coast states late this afternoon into the overnight period.

...20z Update...

Visible satellite shows a gradual uptick in convective development
along the primary front, stretching from south-central Indiana
southwestward into far southern Illinois and Bootheel of Missouri.
Localized clearing has been evident in this region the last few
hours, aiding in destabilization ahead of the front in tandem with
cooling mid-level temperatures aloft in association with the
advancing upper-trough. Scattered storms are expected to develop in
the next few hours in this region and eventually pose a risk for
marginally severe wind/hail, particularly as storms begin to mature
and approach the Marginal Risk area across western Tennessee and
vicinity by early evening.

As this activity spreads east, the potential for severe storms
remains possible for the remainder of the evening, mainly across
middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky. Therefore, the ongoing
forecast appears on track with no adjustments made to hazard
probabilities. Some uncertainty remains on eventual storm modes that
materialize and the potential for convection to remain organized and
persist east and south of the Slight Risk area. A few of the recent
CAM solutions are suggestive of downstream organization, and this
may need to be reexamined at 01z.

..Karstens/Moore.. 11/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough over eastern NE/KS moving into southwest IA/MO.  This upper
feature will move into the OH Valley by mid evening and the central
Appalachians by 08/12 UTC.  Surface analysis indicates a cold front
over the middle MS Valley.  The front will sweep east-southeast
across the OH/TN Valleys before reaching the Mid-Atlantic states and
northern portions of the central Gulf Coast states by early morning
Saturday.

...TN Valley into the southern Appalachians...
South-southwesterly low-level flow will act to gradually advect
richer moisture poleward within the warm conveyor and feature
surface dewpoints rising into the 56-58 deg F range across KY and
near 60 deg F across Middle TN by late afternoon.  Perhaps equally
consequential will be mid-level cold-air advection with 500-mb
temperatures forecast to significantly cool (e.g., -12 deg C at 12
UTC per the Nashville, TN 12 UTC raob to -16 to -17 deg C by 00
UTC).  As a result, weak destabilization is forecast with MLCAPE
ranging from 200-500 J/kg over KY to 500-1000 J/kg across the TN
Valley.  Model guidance continues to show scattered cellular storms
developing late this afternoon initially over the KY/TN border
vicinity, with storms developing farther south near the AL/TN border
during the evening.  Forecast hodographs will support organized
storms with the stronger updrafts, including the possibility for a
few supercells.  A tornado risk, in addition to the threat for
damaging gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger storms.  A mix of linear storm modes and supercells are
expected through the early to mid evening as this activity moves
east.  Storms and the severe risk will probably lessen over the
southern Appalachians before diminishing overnight.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Greater low-level moisture is anticipated farther south across this
region.  However, overall forcing for ascent, both synoptically and
along the front, will be weaker and mid-level temperature
considerably warmer.  The primary forcing across this region will
likely be warm-air advection, which leads to greater uncertainty
regarding convective initiation, particularly given the cloud cover
expected. If an updraft is able to mature and persist, there will
likely be enough low-level helicity to support a limited tornado
risk.

$$