452
ACUS01 KWNS 170543
SWODY1
SPC AC 170541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening into early Tuesday
morning across parts of the central/northern Plains into the Ozarks
and mid Mississippi Valley. Additional storms are possible across
the Southwest and central California. A few strong storms are
possible in the Midwest, but severe-thunderstorm potential appears
low at this time.

...Synopsis...
05 UTC satellite imagery depicts a progressive upper wave traversing
the central Rockies. Ahead of this feature, a broad low/mid-level
baroclinic zone was analyzed from the central Plains southeastward
into the lower MS River Valley. This diffuse boundary is expected to
lift northward as an effective warm frontal zone as
south/southwesterly winds strengthen ahead of the approaching upper
wave. Strong isentropic ascent and moistening near 850 mb should
support isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms from the
northern Plains into the Midwest/mid-MS River Valley. Across the
West, a second upper trough will continue to dig southward along the
CA coast. Cold temperatures aloft combined with broad scale ascent
should promote isolated, though weak, thunderstorms.

...Mid-MS Valley...
50-60 knot mid-level flow associated with the upper wave will
overspread much of MO/IL during the overnight hours as isentropic
ascent increases and thunderstorm coverage is maximized. While wind
profiles appear to show adequate deep-layer shear for organized
convection, most forecast soundings depict modest lapse rates and
narrow buoyancy profiles, which should modulate overall updraft
intensities. This limitation is reflected in recent CAM solutions,
which uniformly show very weak signals for strong updrafts or UH
tracks. Consequently, confidence in a severe threat remains too
limited for risk probabilities, but a few instances of
small/near-severe hail appear possible.

..Moore/Darrow.. 11/17/2025

$$