267
ACUS02 KWNS 301714
SWODY2
SPC AC 301712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along the
Gulf Coast Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Severe
thunderstorms are not currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front pushing into the northern Gulf today is
forecast to stall early Monday morning before gradually advancing
northward as a warm front late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
ahead of an approaching upper wave. Elevated thunderstorms are
possible beginning Monday morning within the warm advection regime
across the TX Gulf Coast into portions of the Southeast and Carolina
coast through the early morning hours Tuesday.

...FL Panhandle Coast...
Any appreciable chance for surface-based convection will likely come
during the 09-12 UTC Tuesday period as a surface low intensifies
over GA and supports inland return of mid-60 F dewpoints into the FL
Panhandle region. Despite this moisture return, poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit overall buoyancy values with most guidance
depicting surface-based lifted indices of around -1 Celsius. Strong
low-level kinematic fields in the vicinity of the intensifying low
could potentially support a severe wind/tornado threat if low-level
moistening/destabilization is sufficient for deep convection;
however, most forecast solutions suggest dewpoints above 67 F may be
required for this to occur. Getting such dewpoints inland beyond the
immediate coast prior to 12z appears improbable (25% chance) based
on recent ensemble guidance, so any severe probabilities continue to
be withheld.

..Moore.. 11/30/2025

$$