186
FXUS63 KEAX 130738
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
238 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue today into the first half
  of next week. Highs remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s into
  Tuesday.

- A few chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
  arrive Sunday afternoon into early Monday. No severe expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

The area remains dominated by mid to upper level ridging with deep
troughing over the western U.S. At the surface, winds over the area
remain out of the south due to a low over SD. As the ridge axis
remains situated over the area coupled with persistent southerly
windflow, expect another day of above normal temperatures with highs
in the low to mid 90s. Going into Sunday, the mid to upper level
ridge shifts slightly to the east as the troughing over the western
U.S. transitions to a closed low and tracks almost due north along
the western edge of the ridge into the Dakotas. High temperatures
for Sunday are anticipated to be a few degrees cooler than today,
ranging in the upper 80s to mid 90s, as the ridge axis gradually
shifts farther east.

Sunday afternoon into the predawn hours of Monday, there will be a
chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms as a H500
shortwave, within the circulation of the low over the Dakotas,
pushes through the area. Limited instability and weak shear will
keep the severe threat almost non-existent for our area. A more
favorable environment (better forcing and more instability) for
severe weather resides farther to our west. Given the few hundred
J/kg of MUCAPE, showers appear more likely with a few storms
possible. There is some uncertainty concerning the coverage as hi-
res models diverge on solutions. The 00Z HRRR suggests showers and
storms over eastern KS and areas north of I-70 while the NAMNST
keeps most of precip to our west with minimal coverage over our
area. The LREF, for now, seems most reasonable keeping a 35-45%
chance for showers and storms over eastern KS and northwest MO and
up to a 30% chance for areas primarily north of I-70.

Above normal temperatures persist through the first half of next
week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s as the mid to upper
level ridge maintains its influence over our area. The forecast
remains mostly dry with a few spotty chances for precip on Tuesday
due to a passing shortwave. For the second half of next week,
temperatures return much closer to seasonal averages as a closed mid
to upper level low pushes a surface cold front through the area. A
series of shortwaves within the flow, associated with the upper low,
will bring multiple chances for showers and storms starting
Wednesday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM
CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Flow has been decoupling more gradually than previous
forecasts lowering concerns for LLWS below mention thresholds.
That said, some minor low level speed shear is possible from
09-12Z this morning. Winds then accelerate becoming SW through
the day Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel