192
FXUS63 KEAX 011935
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
235 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread subfreezing temperatures tonight (>75% chance for
  lows less than 32 for nearly all of the forecast area, except
  the urban cor of KC). Freeze warning remains on track.

- Potential for dense fog tomorrow morning(30-60% chance for
  visibilities less than 1 mile), east of Highway 65.

- Temperatures trend warmer next week with above normal
  temperatures likely Monday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A closed upper-level low moving southeastward across
southeastern IA and northeastern MO. Cold air aloft associated
with this feature is helping to lead to scattered showers across
the northeastern quadrant of our forecast area. This very light
precipitation will move east with the system this evening/
overnight with showers diminishing with time as a result. Cloud
cover associated with the cold air and the upper system is the
main uncertainty for widespread freezing temperatures and fog
potential tonight into tomorrow morning. Overnight, we should
see stronger subsidence as the axis of the upper wave shifts
east. This should lead to cloud cover decreasing from west to
east as well but it`s possible cloud cover lingers longer in
our eastern zones. While this seems like a lower probability of
occurrence vs. cloud cover moving away, it adds uncertainty to
the forecast that otherwise looks fairly straight forward. If
cloud cover lingers longer, temperatures won`t be as a cold as
forecast and the potential for fog decreases as well. Given the
more probable scenario of clouds moving away from the area
overnight, likely leading to fog development, have added mention
of patchy dense fog. Additionally, the fog may keep
temperatures from cooling as much they potentially could. It`s
still likely that temperatures fall to or just below freezing
east of Highway 65 but have moderated them up a few degrees from
the previous forecast.

The forecast for next week looks mainly dry with only small
precipitation chances moving into the area late in the week. Upper-
level ridging builds into the middle of the country Sunday into
Monday. This allows temperatures to climb into the 60s to lower 70s.
Our normal highs for the next for the KC area trends from 60 today
to 57 by Friday. So we will see high temperatures between 5 and 15
degrees above normal Monday - Saturday, with warmest days looking
like Tuesday and Thursday due stronger southwesterly warm advection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

MVFR ceilings, with cloud bases between 2000 and 3000 ft, will
linger into the late afternoon to evening hours before shifting
eastward overnight. Northwest winds will diminish this evening
and overnight as high pressure settles over the area. As that
high shifts east tomorrow morning, winds trend from the south
late in the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB