700
FXUS63 KEAX 080859
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
259 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (around 40-70%) for light showers/drizzle starting this
morning lingering into the evening. Snow flurries possible Sunday
morning.

- Coldest temperatures of the season, so far, begin Saturday night
and linger into early next week.
    *Coldest Day: Sunday - highs in the 30s
    *Coldest Morning: Monday - lows in the upper teens to low 20s
    *Wind Chills: In the teens Sun and Mon AMs

- More seasonal temperatures return Tuesday with highs in the
  upper 50s and 60s. Temperatures return to well-above normal
  with widespread highs in the 70s by next Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Today will be the last day of near/above normal temperatures before
we enter our cold stretch. A closed upper low remains over the
Hudson Bay Region pushing mid to upper level shortwaves through the
flow. One such shortwave is currently (as of 8Z) moving into the
Dakotas. At the surface, a low and partnering cold front over SD
will continue its track to the southeast. A potential for light
rain/drizzle arrives around sunrise as the front approaches our
northwestern CWA. Hi-res models suggest that precip tracks to
the east through the afternoon with the brunt of the precip staying
north of I-70. The HREF keeps the most favorable chances (60-80%)
for measurable precip north of HWY-36 and a rather steep drop in
chances along and south of HWY-36. Given the layer of dry air near
the surface and limited moisture, no significant accumulation is
anticipated. Models have been very consistent with keeping rain
totals for Saturday up to/slightly above a tenth of an inch. The
most favorable locations for rain totals slightly above a tenth of
inch will be areas west of I-35, along the MO/IA border.  As far as
temperatures go, expect a fairly wide spread as the cold front moves
through the area. Areas north of I-70 will range in the low 50s to
low 60s and areas south will approach the mid 60s.

Late Saturday into early Sunday, increased northerly windflow on the
backside of the front will spark a cold stretch that will last into
early next week. Strong cold air advection (CAA) will yield early
Sunday morning lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. These cold
temperatures coupled with wind gusts around 20-25 mph will allow
wind chills to sink into the teens to lower 20s. Additionally, a few
weak disturbances aloft move over the area resulting in a chance for
snow flurries. Given the limited amount of moisture in the dendritic
growth zone (DGZ), no accumulations are anticipated. Highs for
Sunday hover a few degrees above freezing, ranging from the mid 30s
to low 40s. As a surface high builds into the area from the northern
Plains, weakening winds, coupled with skies clearing out will set
the stage for efficient radiational cooling. Low temperatures
overnight Sunday into Monday morning will be the coldest ranging
from the upper teens to low 20s. By late Monday/early Tuesday the
surface high will transit to the southeast shifting winds to the
south. This will allow temperatures to begin warming up. The cold
stretch will linger into early Tuesday morning. However, early
morning lows will not be as brutal as Monday morning. Tuesday lows
will range in the upper 20s to low 30s.

The cold stretch will come to an end by Tuesday afternoon as
approaching mid to upper level ridging will lead to height rises.
Highs for Tuesday will become much more seasonal, ranging from the
mid 50s to low 60s. As the mid to upper level ridge becomes more
dominant, this will be the catalyst to a warming trend that will
last into the second half of next week. By next Friday, we will be
back to highs in the 70s with very limited chances for precip thanks
to the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1002 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Winds will shift clockwise at terminals through Saturday morning
ahead of an approaching cold front. A broken cloud deck is expected
to move in over the next few hours. Some guidance is suggesting
light rain out of this at times through Saturday morning, but
confidence on any terminal impacts from this is low and no
precipitation is mentioned in the TAFs. The front will push through
around 17Z at KSTJ and around 18Z at remaining terminals, bringing
northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots through Saturday afternoon.
Ceilings should scatter out behind the front at KMCI, KMKC, and
KIXD. A secondary frontal surge will bring lower cloud decks (around
4000 ft) first to KSTJ by 21Z and then to remaining terminals after
sunset. MVFR ceilings are expected at KSTJ after 01Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Myers