419
FXUS63 KEAX 022109
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
309 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected
  through mid week.

- Precipitation chances increase Thursday night through Friday
  as the next system approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

After a cold morning and some patchy dense fog, skies are nearly
clear across the area save for a dissipating cloud field across
northeastern portions of the CWA. Temperatures have moderated this
afternoon as yesterday`s low drops into the southeastern US. This
has allowed the ridge to our west to expand into the area, which
will end up being the dominant large scale feature through at least
midweek. Coverage of fog tonight should be more isolated, mainly
limited to lower terrain along rivers.

The ridge will get compressed tonight into Monday morning as a
trough passes through the Great Lakes region. This will bring a
weak, dry cold front to the area, shifting winds to out of the north
or northeast through Monday. Other than the wind shift, this is not
likely to be very noticeable as warmer air quickly advects in behind
the front. Accordingly, highs will peak into the mid to upper 60s on
Monday. Increasing moisture aloft will bring some mid/high level
clouds Monday night, though dry conditions will continue.

The warming trend continues on Tuesday as a warm southwesterly low-
level flow strengthens over the region. This is looking like the
warmest day of the week, with highs peaking in the 70s for most
locations. Another weak front will drop highs slightly for
Wednesday, but otherwise little change is expected.

Guidance is still favoring the next system arriving sometime in the
Thursday night through Friday night timeframe. Currently, this
appears to be on the back end of a trough dropping into the Great
Lakes. While there is still considerable uncertainty with the
placement and progression of this feature, the most favorable
locations for a little rain will be across northern and eastern
Missouri where probabilities are in the 20-30 percent range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through forecast clear to mostly
clear skies. South winds today may gust to near 20kts at times
this afternoon. Winds weaken tonight and a weak front will move
through overnight shifting winds to the north with light
northeasterly winds by tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...CDB