246
FXUS63 KEAX 162017
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
217 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances (30-50%) return Monday evening with the
  highest chances occurring along and east of I-35. There may be
  a few rumbles of thunder especially towards central Missouri.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected through most of the
  week with highs in the mid 60s.

- More widespread chances for rain arrive Wednesday night and
  could persist into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Sunday-Tuesday: High pressure settles into the Central Plains
region with mostly sunny skies occurring this afternoon.
Easterly winds are light just under 10 mph. Highs will reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s by this afternoon. Tonight will be
mostly clear with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A quick pattern change will occur tomorrow as a mid-level low
pressure system begins to push our ridge to the east and move
into the northern Plains region. Winds will shift to the
southeast and will gust up to 30 mph especially north of I-70
closer to the low. Rain chances start to increase in the late
afternoon/evening hours primarily after 3 PM. MUCAPE increases
to 300-400 J/kg especially towards central MO. There may be a
few rumbles of thunder with this activity but no severe weather
is expected. Rainfall amounts will stay very minimal, less than
0.10" across the area.

Rain tapers off on Tuesday morning and skies will start to clear
out. Expect a mostly sunny sky and highs in the mid to lower
60s.

Wednesday-Saturday: Another mid-level trough will come in off
the coast of California. This will also allow moisture to flow
in off the Baja peninsula. That trough will slowly move east by
mid-week bringing clouds to the area. Wednesday will be partly
cloudy with relative humidity values increasing as well. Model
guidance shows PWATs (precipitable water) reaching near 1"
across the area which would be near the 90th percentile for mid-
November. Rain chances increase Wednesday night as the surface
low drapes a warm front west to east across the area. Rain may
linger into Friday with multiple rounds of rain expected. Highs
will be warm in the upper 50s to mid 60s for Wednesday and
Thursday and drop into the lower 50s by Friday.

Probabilistic rainfall amounts Wednesday-Friday
(higher towards central MO):

>0.5" (60-80%)
>1"   (40-60%)
>2"   (10-25%)

Rain will taper off by Friday evening as the cold front pushes
through. Lows will be about 10 degrees cooler from Thursday
night to Friday night from the 40s to the 30s as the CAA (cold
air advection) begins to settle in. Highs on Saturday will be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s with skies clearing throughout the
day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR through the period with winds currently out of the east.
Winds turn southeasterly by early Monday morning and clouds
begin to move in. Winds gust up to 25 knots by late Monday
morning with ceilings beginning to drop near MVFR levels as
well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soria
AVIATION...Soria