728
FXUS63 KEAX 211727
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1127 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...Updated 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers linger through the afternoon today. No severe expected and
flooding concerns remain low.

- This weekend remains dry and quiet with additional precip chances
returning Monday.

- A cold front brings cooler, much more seasonal temperatures
  mid- next week into the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Another gray, overcast day with much-needed rain chances hanging
around through this afternoon. A flattened mid to upper level ridge
continues its track to the east of the area while a trough pushes up
against the western periphery of the ridge over KS. At the surface,
a low near south central KS is pushing a warm front towards our
area. Isentropic ascent, seen well on the 305K surface, has led to
widespread showers that have been slowly advancing north since
yesterday evening. Now, with a surface high just to the north of the
area ushering in a drier air mass, some uncertainty exists with how
far north these showers will push. Current runs of hi-res models
suggest showers make it into southern IA with a fairly steep drop
off in precip chances entering central IA. Any chances for severe
weather are non-existent given such weak instability. There are
better chances for a few lightning strikes or rumbles of thunder but
even still, chances are fairly low. As far as additional rain
accumulations, the heaviest precip will fall over the next few hours
and begin to dwindle by the late morning/afternoon. StormTotalQPF
remains around half an inch to just above an inch for today with the
heaviest amounts along and south of I-70. Given our preceding dry
conditions (prior to Thursday), flooding concerns remain low as
flash flood guidance values remain high. No flooding is expected
with the exception of some nuisance ponding in flood-prone areas.
Additionally, with this increased moisture, widespread fog ranging
from light and patchy to dense is expected to last through the
morning hours. For the afternoon into the evening, a few areas may
see lingering precip or light patchy fog, but overall expect a
mostly cloudy day with virtually no hope of seeing the sun. As a
result, large diurnal temperature swings will be less likely as
extensive cloud coverage impedes the effects of diurnal heating.
High temperatures for today will range in the upper 40s to low 60s.
Areas north of I-70 will likely stay on the lower end of that range
while locations south of the interstate range in the low 50s to low
60s.

As we transition to the weekend, the system that brought us this
beneficial rain will continue to move to the east of the area. Mid
to upper level ridging will push a surface high through the area. As
our winds shift to the north, drier air will transition our gray,
overcast skies to mostly clear. Expect this weekend to remain dry
for the most part with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s which happens
to be above seasonal averages.

Precip chances return late Sunday into Monday as a closed mid to
upper level low emerges out of the Four Corners Region. At the
surface, a low pushes a warm front through the area resulting in
widespread chances for showers. A few storms cannot be ruled out,
but seem less likely given the weak amount of instability.
Consequently, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
Multiple chances for showers seem to linger through the afternoon
into the evening. However, QPF for Monday, for now, remains under a
half an inch staving off any flooding concerns.

The only other item of note is a stout mid to upper level low that
descends from the Canadian Provinces pushing a surface cold front
through the area mid-next week. For now, precip chances associated
with this front are low given the limited available moisture and
better forcing to the north. As for temperatures, this front will
bring temperatures a few degrees below normal, making for a fairly
chilly Thanksgiving. Highs seem to stay mostly in the 40s heading
into the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Front is starting to stall but should move northward enough to
provide a few hours of dry conditions at MCI. Front will start
to move southward though again, maintaining shower activity for
northeast Kansas to north-central Missouri. Low-end MVFR and IFR
ceilings will linger for much of the evening with this boundary
in close proximity. Improvement should come by late Saturday
morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Krull