807
FXUS66 KEKA 081041
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
241 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier conditions will build and persist
through next Tuesday with a hazy marine layer along the coast. Wet
and unsettled weather conditions will impact the area mid to late
next week, bringing heavy rainfall, mountain snow and multiple
periods of strong south winds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to build and strengthen
over the region, promoting dry weather and warmer temperatures
through at least Tuesday. Interior valley fog will likely be slow
to clear and may keep temperatures lower than expected in those
specific area. Pleasant weather conditions is expected today with
highs generally in the low 60`s to mid 70`s and light winds.

Dry offshore flow (easterly winds), especially at night, will
keep the air very dry and reinforce the warming trend Sunday and
Monday. Interior highs are forecast to be in the mid 70s into low
80s both days, but any areas that do have fog develop overnight
will likely be slow to clear and may be lower than forecast. Even
the coastal areas are expected to warm up to mid 60s to low 70`s
before the sea breezes develop. Although on Monday, we might see a
slight change as a weak frontal system moves in from northwest,
bringing mostly increasing clouds, but no measurable rain or
significant cooling is expected.

Wet and unsettled weather conditions returns mid to late next
week. Ridging breakdown and begin to shift eastward on Wednesday
as an upper- level trough approaches the region. Ensemble and
deterministic models are in a good agreement that a series of
storm system will impact the area mid to late week. The
aforementioned trough is expected to evolve into a cutoff low
well offshore the Pacific Northwest and Northwest California on
Wednesday, while an associated surface cyclogenesis will developed
over the NE Pacific. Operational models, GFS and ECMWF, are
showing a low level jet streaks developing upstream of the trough,
bringing an enhancing a strong SSE flow regimen over the
Northwest California coast Wednesday evening, before spin up and
eventually moves toward Northern California and Oregon. This have
the potential to bring periods of strong south winds from
Wednesday evening into Friday. NBM 90th percentile (worst case
scenario) shows widespread 40 to 55 mph, with locally strongest
over the more exposed ridges and coast headlands. Widespread
moderate to heavy rain amounts is also expected. The ensemble
median 48 hours is between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain. NBM
probability of 48-hours precipitation exceeding 2 inches range
from 40-70% along the coastal range, with locally higher over the
south-southwest windward facing terrain. The low end potential
range from 1 to 2 inches and high end potential of 1.5 to 3.5
inches at lower elevations. The higher end potential could
generate moderate to localized major flood impacts should it be
realized. Stay tuned for updates during the next few days! /ZVS


&&

.AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Areas of patchy stratus and fog are being
observed around Humboldt Bay and some of the interior river valleys.
So far, offshore flow has prevented these from affecting the
terminals. Some impacts are possible before and around sunrise, with
models showing the highest chances around Humboldt Bay. Any low
clouds are likely to lift and scatter after sunrise. VFR conditions
and light winds are forecast from the late morning into the evening.
HREF is showing potential (about 50% chances) for more widespread
stratus off the coast Saturday evening. JB


&&

.MARINE...Mild conditions are forecast this weekend. Winds are
forecast to remain relatively light while seas will gradually ease.
Another mid-period west swell at around 6-8 ft is forecast to build
in early Monday. Northerly breezes return Monday night into Tuesday,
with peak gusts forecast around 20-25 kts. NBM is showing only 20-
30% chances for sustained winds greater than 21 kts. A system
approaching the area Wednesday into Thursday will likely return
elevated southerly winds and seas. JB


&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...High astronomical tides continue Saturday, with
minor coastal flooding possible at high tide around Humboldt Bay.
Minor flooding is possible around King Salmon and the Arcata
Bottoms. The coastal flood threat diminishes by Sunday as
astronomical tides and residual surge continues to decrease. JB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 2 PM PST this
     afternoon for CAZ103.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 2 PM PST this
     afternoon for PZZ415.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png